Saints seek explosive plays in Week 5 vs. Giants

By Ross Jackson

Explosive plays are a necessity in today’s NFL. Previous studies have shown that generating a play of 15 or more yards during a drive increases a team’s likelihood to score a touchdown 10-fold (2.3% without becomes 28% with). Now, with drives capable of starting at the 35-yard-line, those rates could get even higher. 

The New Orleans Saints have not generated many such plays. But the gap between being more explosive and not isn’t a wide one. That much is evidenced when comparing this year’s deep passing game production to last year’s, which was undeniably more explosive. 

They’re Closer Than Expected

The Saints have actually taken more 20-plus yard passing attempts with quarterback Spencer Rattler than they did with former passer Derek Carr through the first four weeks of their respective season. 

Rattler has 15 passing attempts of more than 20 air yards from the line of scrimmage through Week 4. During the same span last year, Carr had 14 such attempts. 

The difference? This year, Rattler and his pass-catchers have connected on just three of those passes for just 80 passing yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. Last year, the Saints connected on five deep passes for 224 yards and a pair of passing touchdowns. Carr also had two interceptions on those throws. 

The Saints are lacking explosive plays but not because they aren’t calling the plays. It’s because they haven’t connected on them and the quality of the chances are arguable. 

A 21-yard passing attempt isn’t the same as a 40-yard passing attempt, but they both fall under the category of 20-plus-yard passes. 

Why The Giants Present Opportunity

This is where New Orleans will have to make strides, ideally for them beginning this week against the New York Giants. New York has surrendered 10 completions of 20 or more yards so far this season, one fewer than the Saints’ defense. That ranks around the middle of the NFL defensively. 

While the Giants haven’t proven to be particularly susceptible to the big passing play, they haven’t necessarily proven to not be either. It’s time for head coach Kellen Moore and the Saints offense to dial up more of these attacks and for Rattler to take the risks of pushing the ball downfield even outside of the perfect scenarios. Then, it’s on the receiver to make the play. 

Explosive Rushes Are Impactful, Too

Per Sharp Analytics, over the four season sample size of 2020-2023, explosive plays of 15 or more yards lead to a scoring rate (touchdown or field goal) of 51%. Those plays consist of both passing and rushing production. 

The Giants have surrendered five rushes of 20 or more yards already this season, second-most in the NFL. 

Meanwhile, the Saints have not yet generated a single rush of that distance. They did see their longest rush of the season just last week, though. The 18-yard scamper by running back Kendre Miller has set the pace for New Orleans. 

Along with explosive back Alvin Kamara, the team has a chance against the league’s No. 29 rushing defense to pull off some big runs on Sunday. 

Whether through the air or on the ground, the Saints’ Week 5 home matchup with the Giants should present opportunities for New Orleans to finally find some downfield and explosive plays.