Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
By Ross Jackson
Coming off of their biggest win in years, the New England Patriots (3-2) will be the next opponent hosted by the New Orleans Saints (1-4). Both teams are coming off big weeks with the Patriots toppling the Buffalo Bills with a late go-ahead field goal and the Saints knocking off the New York Giants for their first win of the season.
Right now, the Patriots are heavy favorites traveling to the Big Easy with -3.5 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.
There’s no doubt that New England will be a new class of opponent for the Saints after notching their first win against a subpar team like the Giants. New England presents a challenge for New Orleans more akin to the teams against which it competed to open the season, the Arizona Cardinals (2-3) and San Francisco 49ers (4-1). This will be a good litmus test for the Saints and the progress they’ve made in recent weeks.
Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense (Points Per Game)
Saints Offense – No. 27 | Patriots Defense – No. T-No. 9
Patriots Offense – No. T-No. 12 | Saints Defense – No. 24
From a points perspective, perhaps the most important perspective, the Saints are outmatched here. The Patriots have a top-10 defense to match up with the Saints’ bottom-10 offense while the flip side of the equation has the teams on opposite sides of the rankings, as well. Sunday’s win over the Giants was the first game this season in which the Saints have held an opponent to less than 20 points. It was also the first time the team scored more than 21 points.
Point Differential
Saints – minus-43 (No. 27) | Patriots – plus-24 (No. 10)
As expected with the scoring offense and defense comparison, the Saints are out of their depth in scoring. They may need another wealth of turnovers like they got last week in order to show their Week 5 shift wasn’t a fluke.
Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense (Yards Per Game)
Saints Offense – No. 25 | Patriots Defense – No. 26
Here’s a chance for the Saints to bolster their passing game much like the last two weeks have presented the team chances to bolster their rushing attack. The Patriots are No. 19 in the NFL in yards per game allowed on 20-plus yard throws, an element of the game the Saints finally connected on last week and that they will look to continue to build off of in future games.
Patriots Offense – No. T-No. 7 | Saints Defense – No. 9
This one will be a strength against a strength in the passing game. Patriots quarterback Drake Maye and wide receiver Stefon Diggs have been on a tear recently including connecting for 146 receiving yards on ten completions against the Bills. The Saints’ secondary came to life following the first two drives against the Giants. They’ll need to be ready for a battle early on on Sunday.
Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense (Yards Per Game)
Saints Offense – T-No. 14 | Patriots Defense – No. 4
This will be a big test for the Saints’ rushing attack. Running backs Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller have been picking up steam in head coach Kellen Moore’s offense over the last few weeks. Miller’s 4.4 yards per carry after contact is one of the best for a Saints running back since 2018, per Next Gen Stats. If he can continue his bruising style of breaking tackles and wearing down defenses, that could set up Kamara’s dynamic ability to succeed, as well as help open up the passing game for quarterback Spencer Rattler.
Patriots Offense – No. 27 | Saints Defense – No. 20
Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson ran for a pair of touchdowns against the Bills on Sunday night, but both were red zone rushes of four and seven yards. For the game, the Patriots totaled just 77 rushing yards against one of the league’s worst rushing defenses going into the contest. That’s a positive match for the Saints.
Turnover Differential
Saints – plus-5 (T-No. 4) | Patriots – minus-1 (T-No. 19)
New Orleans took a major leap in this category thanks to the help provided against the Giants by some young players that assisted the defense in generating five consecutive takeaways for the first time in the NFL since 2016. This will be a test of fact or fiction. Are Saints’ defenders takeaway machines? Or were the Giants just giveaway machines? This is a great chance for New Orleans to prove the former.
Third Down Conversion Rate
Saints Offense – 38.2% (T-No. 21) | Patriots Defense – 41.8% (T-No. 21)
Patriots Offense – 40.4% (T-No. 16) | Saints Defense – 40.4% (No. 18)
Neither of these teams does a great job at staying on the field on third downs nor getting off the field on defense. This could be a very important set of trends to watch throughout the game. If one team buttons up a bit on either side of the ball, it could be a deciding factor for a win. Perhaps seeing Saints quarterback Taysom Hill’s role continue to grow since his return will have an impact in this category.
Pressure Rate Allowed vs. Generated
Saints Offense – 36.7% (No. 20) | Patriots Defense – 35.8% (No. 17)
The Saints’ offensive line looks like it will be similarly tested by the Patriots as it was by the Giants’ defense. Before last week’s game, the Giants ranked No. 15 in the league in pressure generated and, while they did not register a sack, the unit didn’t have much trouble pressuring Rattler on Sunday.
Rookie offensive lineman Torricelli Simpkins III may be in for another start, a chance to improve upon his performance against a very talented Giants defensive line and get back to his production from the second half of the Bills game where he allowed one of the lowest pressure rates by a rookie offensive lineman in the league.
Patriots Offense – 34.6% (No. 13) | Saints Defense – 28.0% (No. 30)
The Saints could really use a Chase Young return this week. He was ruled out early last week as Moore was intent on letting him focus on his recovery process, but this week the Saints should look to take it down to the wire in an attempt to get him back.
More New Orleans Saints
