Statistically Speaking: Saints at Bears

By Ross Jackson

The 1-5 New Orleans Saints are looking to bounce back after a tough loss last week. In order to do so, they’ll have to topple their former head coach and the 3-2 Chicago Bears. New Orleans is currently a 5.5-point underdog going into this matchup. 

This is sure to be an emotional matchup for both clubs, with the Bears having more than a few advantages on paper. 

Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense (Points Per Game)

Saints Offense – No. 28 | Bears Defense – No. 27

Bears Offense – No. 10 | Saints Defense – No. 25

The biggest part of this matchup will undoubtedly be the Bears offense against the Saints defense. A specific focus should be on the teams in the early part of the game. The Saints have the worst first-quarter scoring differential in the NFL and have allowed two consecutive touchdowns to start each of the last four games on defense. Immediately spotting a team 14 points at the top of the game isn’t a recipe for success in the league. 

New Orleans will need to take advantage of the opportunities to put points on the board against former head coach Dennis Allen and the Bears defense, which has fallen to near the bottom-five in points per game allowed. 

Point Differential

Saints – minus-49 (No. 28) | Bears – minus-15 (No. 23)

Both teams have been out scored, but the Saints are separated here a bit. If the team can get out to a faster start earlier in games, that will likely reduce the deficits they tend to face when entering the second half. New Orleans will need to get into the end zone more rather than settling for field goals. 

Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense (Yards Per Game)

Saints Offense – No. 22 | Bears Defense – No. 15

The chess match between Saints head coach Kellen Moore and former coach Allen should be a lot of fun to watch. Through the air, the Saints have been better over the last few games, taking more deep shots and finding some explosive plays. Quarterback Spencer Rattler has leapt from No. 30 in the league in yards per attempt over the first four games to No. 10 over the last two. Keeping that upward momentum going will be imperative. 

Bears Offense – No. 11 | Saints Defense – No. 16

The Saints’ passing defense took a hit against the New England Patriots last week, lacking to provide much resistance to quarterback Drake Maye. Another member of the 2024 draft class now awaits. Bears quarterback Caleb Williams has the athleticism and mobility to extend plays. Saints corners will need to plaster to wideouts and remain tight in coverage in order to limit Chicago’s talented pass-catching options. 

Bears head coach Ben Johnson is one of the more innovative offensive minds in the league, especially in the air attack. Saints defensive coordinator Brandon Staley has a chance to make a statement looking to get his young unit back on track in Week 7. 

Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense (Yards Per Game)

Saints Offense – No. 19 | Bears Defense – No. 31

After taking on a tough rushing defense last week against the Patriots, the Saints are back to facing one of the league’s worst groups in that category. New Orleans controlling the ground game on both sides is a must for Moore and Staley. But specifically getting Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller going will be vital to success. Miller never got the chance to really get going while Allen was calling the shots, this game will be a chance for the running back to prove why that shouldn’t have been the case. 

Bears Offense – No. 18 | Saints Defense – No. 17

Bears running back D’Andre Swift leads the way for the team with 295 rushing yards. The Saints rushing defense has gotten better over the recent weeks. The challenge of limiting the combination of Swift and Williams (108 rushing yards this season) is a massive one. It’s very likely that Williams will break one or two sizable runs, but the timing of those moments will be far more consequential than the runs themselves. The Saints must remain disciplined in big moments. 

Turnover Differential

Saints – plus-4 (No. 6) | Bears – plus-8 (No. 1)

The Saints are going to try to get back on track here after following up their five-takeaway performance against the New York Giants with nine forced against the Patriots. Meanwhile, Allen has his Bears defense operating well in one of his trademarks, forcing turnovers. The Bears defense currently ranks No. 2 in the league with eight interceptions. Rattler has only thrown a single interception all season, which came on a fourth down against the Seattle Seahawks, but now will be tested by one of the league’s best takeaway defenses. 

Third Down Conversion Rate

Saints Offense – 37.7% (No. 21) | Bears Defense – 30.6% (No. 3)

Bears Offense – 43.1% (No. 7) | Saints Defense – 41.4% (No. 24)

The Saints are in a lot of trouble here on paper. They’ve gotten better at staying in the field, but still struggle to do so in opposing territory. That has led to the team constantly settling for field goals. Meanwhile the defense hasn’t provided the resistance it would like in limiting third down conversions to opposing offenses, something the Bears have proven they can do very well. 

Pressure Rate Allowed vs. Generated

Saints Offense – 38.3% (No. 27) | Bears Defense – 27.7% (No. 29)

There’s some good news for the Saints and Rattler, who should have their starting offensive line on the field again this week. Allen’s defense hasn’t provided much pressure to opposing passers. That could mean more big passes and aggressive plays for the Saints offense. New Orleans will just have to be careful about putting the ball in high-variance situations due to the Bears’ ability to take the ball away despite bringing much pressure. 

Bears Offense – 30.7% (No. 8) | Saints Defense – 30.3% (No. 23)

Per Next Gen Stats, the Saints put more pressure on Maye and the Patriots last week (58.1%) than they have in any game since 2018. Perhaps the long-awaited return of defensive end Chase Young had a lot to do with that. The Patriots offense did a good job keeping pressure percentages against their young quarterback low, much like Chicago. However, the Saints found a way last week and will need to do so again this week. 

But New Orleans will need to be more effective on the backend in order for any of it to matter. Last week, Maye threw all three of his touchdown passes and had a 141.7 passer rating while under pressure.