By Hunt Palmer
Everywhere I turn, Lane Kiffin’s name and picture are popping up in purple and gold.
Kiffin has been asked about the LSU job. National talking heads are discussing his potential in Baton Rouge. The oddsmakers list him among LSU’s most likely targets.
I get it.
Lane Kiffin has turned Ole Miss into one of the most consistent programs in the country over the last five seasons. His Rebels are 46-14 since 2021 and are well on their way to a fourth 10-plus win season in five years.
Among SEC programs, Georgia and Alabama have won more. That’s the end of the list.
Kiffin hasn’t reached the SEC Championship Game. He’s never made the College Football Playoff. But he’s won year after year. The only hiccup was the 8-5 season in 2022, and even that year started 8-1 before a dismal 0-4 finish as Kiffin’s name was linked to the Auburn job.
His offenses score points. He knows the transfer portal. By all accounts, he’s calmed down and matured off the field. All of that makes him incredibly attractive as an option.
Perhaps he’s hit his head on the ceiling at Ole Miss. Perhaps he hasn’t. Time will tell.
Speaking of time, I don’t think it’s working in LSU’s favor when it comes to Kiffin’s candidacy to replace Brian Kelly.
I’ll explain.
Currently, Ole Miss is 7-1 and ranked seventh in the country. The remaining schedule is a trio of home games against South Carolina, The Citadel and Florida before the finale in the Egg Bowl in Starkville. South Carolina has lost five of six league games. The Citadel is a free win, and Florida is 3-4 overall and without its coach. State hasn’t won an SEC game in over two calendar years.
Forgive me, but I’m going to assume 10-2 is the worst the Rebels will finish. And that is going to lead to my next assumption that Ole Miss is going to make the College Football Playoff. If they don’t, this entire point is moot.
If the Rebels do make the playoff at 11-1, which I find probable, there are two likely options:
- A top four seed with a bye
- The fifth or sixth seed hosting the Group of Six champion or the 11 seed in the first round
A bye ensures Ole Miss wouldn’t play its first playoff game until December 31 or January 1. Being the fifth or sixth seed means a home game on December 19 or 20. Win, and move onto that New Years window.
If Kiffin is the next coach at LSU, are the powers that be in Baton Rouge prepared to wait until January 2 or later to make a hire? If not, is Kiffin prepared to abandon a team trying to win a title before they ever take the field?
Both of those scenarios feel like a stretch.
Technically, Kelly left a Notre Dame team with an outside shot at the four-team playoff in 2021. The Irish were 11-1 and ranked fifth by the CFP, but the feeling was that unbeaten Cincinnati would get the spot. They did.
Much of the discussion around Kiffin is about the quality of the job in Baton Rouge or Gainesville as opposed to Oxford. Money has come up, too. He’s getting a raise no matter what color his visor is in 2026.
I think timing is the most interesting, and perhaps prohibitive, aspect of it all.
Signing Day is December 4. The transfer portal opens from January 2 to January 16.
Brian Kelly was hired on November 30. Ed Orgeron was hired on November 26.
Is LSU willing to let signing day come and go and wait out an Ole Miss playoff run that could literally last the entire portal window to hire Kiffin?
He may not even field a team in 2026. That’s a bit of hyperbole, but not devoid of some truth.
There is an argument to be made on the other side here. In an era where rosters can be overhauled annually, if LSU’s decision makers determine that they’re willing to punt 2026 because they’re that convicted in Kiffin in 2027 and beyond, fine.
Save some cash in the 2026 portal cycle. Hold your nose and sit through 5-7. Unload the war chest next December and January. That’s a hard reset, but it’s not out of the question.
Kiffin would have crawled to Baton Rouge from Oxford in 2021. The landscape of the sport is different now, and the timing of this seems messy.
LSU still boasts a better tradition, bigger stadium, better high school recruiting base and national brand than Ole Miss. That all mattered more 10 years ago than it does now. It still matters, but how much?
Kiffin is on his way to statue status in Oxford, and the proof that eight or nine wins won’t cut it in Baton Rouge is more evident than ever.
I think Kiffin would win big at LSU. And I think he’ll get a phone call from Baton Rouge. Four years ago, this would have been a no brainer.
Timing is everything.
More LSU Sports
