Tyler Shough looking to defy non-first-round QB odds

By Ross Jackson

After being named the New Orleans Saints’ next starting quarterback, rookie passer Tyler Shough will have the odds stacked against him. He has the opportunity of a lifetime ahead of him to become the future at quarterback for the club. A team that will see its ninth starting quarterback since the retirement of future Hall of Fame starter Drew Brees when Shough takes the field this weekend against the Los Angeles Rams.

While expectations remain realistic for this Week 9 bout against a premiere NFL defense, the remaining eight games provide a clear runway for the second-round passer.

If he can earn the role going into 2026 with his performance as this send ends, he will do so by defying the odds, which have not been favorable to non-first-round passers over recent NFL Draft classes.

Quarterbacks Selected After The First Round Since 2016

Since 2016, 59 passers have been selected in the NFL Draft in rounds two through seven. Of them, 43 have started at least one game.

Of them, Shough will become the fifth to start a game in 2025. The others are New Orleans Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler, for whom Shough will be taking over, Dallas Cowboys passer Dak Presscott, Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles and Cleveland Browns third-round pick Dillon Gabriel.

The four passers are a combined 11-16 so far this year.

Going back to 2016, that group of 43 passers have won just 41.4% of their games as starters, winning a combined 269 of 650 games.

Compare that to the 53.5 win percentage over 1,802 games started by first round picks in that same date range, and it’s easy to see that the odds aren’t in the favor of those following the selection process’s opening round.

The Bulk Of Wins Consolidates

Of the 269 wins by non-first-round quarterbacks drafted and played as starters since 2016, 155 come from a trio of players. Prescott, Hurts and San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy.

Without those three passers, the remaining group of 40’s win percentage sinks to 28.2% with just 118 wins out of 408 starts.

In fact, only six passers among the group have 10 or more career wins.

The majority of QB starts/wins registered by non-first-round QBs that were drafted and have started games since 2016 are consolidated among a trio of passers: Prescott, Hurts and Purdy.#Saints Tyler Shough’s quest to become the next begins this weekend. pic.twitter.com/1sepuY7pWA

— Ross Jackson (@RossJacksonNOLA) October 31, 2025

Shough Will Need To Be An Exception

In order for the Saints to find their next passer in Shough, he’ll need to join the class of passers like Prescott, Hurts and Purdy. Meanwhile, the Saints will have to have a combination of enough patience to see if that happens and enough foresight to know when it’s time to move on.

Ideally, Shough doesn’t leave much of an opportunity for the latter.

He begins his journey to setting himself apart from the majority of those 59 passers that have not yet panned out and trying instead to reach the upper echelon of quarterbacks to become long-term starters despite not being first round picks.

Is There A Formula To Success?

Shough already has the NFL size and NFL arm, which are major factors to success. But it appears that there are three common denominators to the success of Prescott, Hurts and Purdy versus the rest of the field of passers.

Together, those three passers completed 66.6% of their attempts, carried a touchdown to interception ratio of 2.5 and 6.2% The three also combined for .40 rushing touchdowns and nearly 24 rushing yards per game.

Meanwhile, the remaining 40 completed just 61.6% of their passes with a touchdown to interception ratio of 1.2 and a sack percentage of 7.8%. The group totaled just 16 rushing touchdowns and just over 15 rushing yards per game in its starts.

A combination of precision, taking care of the football and mobility have all, unsurprisingly, played a large role in success or failure at the position. There are a lot of variables to those factors, but if Shough can find himself on the right side of each, he’ll have the recipe necessary to propel him to new heights in the NFL.