Statistically Speaking: Saints at Panthers

By Ross Jackson

The New Orleans Saints (1-8) will close out their final eight games of the season with five contests against division opponents. Their next up, the Carolina Panthers (5-4). 

New Orleans will travel to Charlotte to take on the NFC South rival at the site of former head coach Dennis Allen’s final game with the Saints in 2024. Games at Bank of America field are always tightly contested, and are sometimes downright unpredictable. 

New Orleans has lost three of their last four trips to the Queen City and are hoping to turn that around this week after appearing aimless for most of the season thus far. Carolina is coming off of a stunning road win against the Green Bay Packers, hoping to keep their moment and winning record going. 

Despite the variance in record, there isn’t a lot that separates these two teams. 

Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense (Points Per Game)

Saints Offense – No. 31 | Panthers Defense – No. 16

Panthers Offense – No. 27 | Saints Defense – No. 26

The Saints offense won’t have an easy time turning around its worst per game scoring start since 1987, but they’ll be looking for a way. With rookie quarterback Tyler Shough going into his second career start, finding a rhythm and building consistency may come a little easier. That’ll be necessary for the Saints to compete with the Panthers’ defense which has done a decent job so far this season keeping points off of the board. 

The Saints’ defense appears evenly matched with the Panthers’ offense. But one will have to break through. 

Point Differential

Saints – minus-105 (No. 31) | Panthers – minus-35 (T-No. 22)

New Orleans doesn’t just struggle to put points on the board, its defense struggles to keep points off. With short fields, inconsistent special teams play and a leaky defense, the Saints have already lost three games by a margin of 20 or more points this season. However, Carolina has already lost two such games as well, one to the Buffalo Bills and another to the New England Patriots. 

The Saints have lost games to both of those opponents. However, those games were lost by 12 and six points respectively. 

Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense (Yards Per Game)

Saints Offense – No. 22 | Panthers Defense – No. 15

Panthers Offense – No. 30 | Saints Defense – No. 14

Both passing defenses look to outmatch the passing attacks they’ll line up opposite. The key difference for defending the air attack for these two teams won’t likely be yardage, but scoring. New Orleans has surrendered the seventh-most passing touchdowns in the league despite the 14th-fewest yards. Meanwhile, the Panthers have given up the ninth-fewest touchdown passes in the season and are fresh off of allowing none to Packers quarterback Jordan Love. 

Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense (Yards Per Game)

Saints Offense – No. 27 | Panthers Defense – No. 18

Saints running backs Alvin Kamara and Devin Neal averaged just 2.78 yards per carry last week against the Los Angeles Rams. The team’s biggest run of the season went for 29 yards, thanks to quarterback Taysom Hill. Without that big breakaway rush, the team’s longest run would have been just four yards. The Panthers’ defense is susceptible to the ground game, but New Orleans has been on a five-game run without touching 100 rushing yards as a team. 

Panthers Offense – No. 5 | Saints Defense – No. 24

Here is where the Panthers can separate themselves. New Orleans was raked over the coals last week when it came time of possession against the Rams. The team’s 16:07 possession time was the 13th-lowest in NFL history. If the Panthers and breakout back Rico Dowdle can contract the clock on the ground, the Saints’ defense has shown little resistance of late. 

Turnover Differential

Saints – minus-4 (T-No. 22) | Panthers – minus-4 (T-No. 22)

The teams are in a dead heat with one another here, having given the ball away more than taking it away. New Orleans is on the hotter stream of late. The Saints have committed 11 turnovers in the last four games with only two takeaways in the same span. Their minus-9 turnover differential over the last four games outpaces the minus-1 of the Panthers. 

Third Down Conversion Rate

Saints Offense – 37.5% (No. 20) | Panthers Defense – 43.5% (No. 28)

Panthers Offense – 37.5% (No. 20) | Saints Defense – 38.5% (No. 15)

Both team’s offenses haven’t been consistent in extending drives. However, the Saints’ defense looks to be more penetrable in this area. 

Pressure Rate Allowed vs. Generated

Saints Offense – 37.3% (No. 24) | Panthers Defense – 26.8% (No. 29)

Panthers Offense – 38.6% (No. 26) | Saints Defense – 30.3% (No. 26)

Another evenly matched situation between the two clubs. Each struggles to generate pressure and struggles to keep its quarterbacks clean. This will be another area wherein one team will have to break through against its season history thus far. Shough’s and Panthers quarterback Bryce Young’s reaction under pressure could be a key area that separates these two teams this weekend.