With 11 weeks of the NFL regular season complete, updated win totals are painting a clearer picture of which teams have exceeded expectations and which have fallen off the pace.
Oddsmakers continue to adjust projections weekly, and the latest numbers reflect movement across nearly every team in the league. Each team is tracked through four stages: preseason expectations, post-Week 4, post-Week 8, and the current totals following Week 11.
A few notable trends stand out.
Steady from Start to Week 11:
Only two teams have maintained the exact same win total projection throughout all four updates — the Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers.
Consistent Risers:
The Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks have increased their projected win totals at every checkpoint, reflecting strong midseason momentum.
Biggest Climbers Since Preseason:
-
Colts / Patriots: +4
-
Seahawks: +3.5
-
Bears / Broncos / Rams: +3
Biggest Fallers Since Preseason:
-
Bengals / Commanders: -4
-
Cardinals / Titans: -3
As the regular season enters its stretch run, these shifts highlight which teams have outperformed expectations — and which have struggled to keep pace. More changes are likely as the playoff race tightens heading into December.
| Team |
Before Week 1 |
After Week 4 |
After Week 8 |
After Week 11/Current |
| Arizona Cardinals |
8.5 |
8.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
| Atlanta Falcons |
7.5 |
8.5 |
8.5 |
8.5 |
| Baltimore Ravens |
11.5 |
8.5 |
8.5 |
9.5 |
| Buffalo Bills |
11.5 |
13.5 |
11.5 |
11.5 |
| Carolina Panthers |
6.5 |
5.5 |
7.5 |
7.5 |
| Chicago Bears |
6.5 |
7.5 |
8.5 |
9.5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals |
9.5 |
6.5 |
7.5 |
5.5 |
| Cleveland Browns |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
4.5 |
| Dallas Cowboys |
7.5 |
6.5 |
7.5 |
6.5 |
| Denver Broncos |
9.5 |
8.5 |
10.5 |
12.5 |
| Detroit Lions |
10.5 |
11.5 |
11.5 |
10.5 |
| Green Bay Packers |
10.5 |
10.5 |
11.5 |
10.5 |
| Houston Texans |
9.5 |
6.5 |
7.5 |
8.5 |
| Indianapolis Colts |
7.5 |
9.5 |
12.5 |
11.5 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars |
7.5 |
9.5 |
9.5 |
9.5 |
| Kansas City Chiefs |
11.5 |
10.5 |
11.5 |
10.5 |
| Las Vegas Raiders |
6.5 |
6.5 |
5.5 |
4.5 |
| Los Angeles Chargers |
9.5 |
10.5 |
10.5 |
9.5 |
| Los Angeles Rams |
9.5 |
11.5 |
11.5 |
12.5 |
| Miami Dolphins |
7.5 |
5.5 |
4.5 |
6.5 |
| Minnesota Vikings |
8.5 |
7.5 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
| New England Patriots |
8.5 |
8.5 |
11.5 |
12.5 |
| New Orleans Saints |
4.5 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
4.5 |
| New York Giants |
5.5 |
4.5 |
5.5 |
4.5 |
| New York Jets |
5.5 |
5.5 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
| Philadelphia Eagles |
11.5 |
12.5 |
11.5 |
12.5 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
8.5 |
8.5 |
8.5 |
8.5 |
| San Francisco 49ers |
10.5 |
10.5 |
10.5 |
10.5 |
| Seattle Seahawks |
8 |
9.5 |
10.5 |
11.5 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
9.5 |
10.5 |
11.5 |
10.5 |
| Tennessee Titans |
5.5 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
2.5 |
| Washington Commanders |
9.5 |
9.5 |
7.5 |
5.5 |
