Path to the College Football Playoff for every SEC team

Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

By Chris Marler

ESPN updated their Playoff Predictor numbers on Wednesday. Currently there are five teams from the SEC projected to make the 12 team field, but there are seven teams that still have a mathematical chance at getting in the Playoff.

If you’re confused about what needs to happen for your team, your rival or any other SEC team this weekend – so am I. Here’s a full explanation and odds for every SEC team’s playoff hopes based on every outcome during rivalry weekend.

Texas A&M

Current odds to make the CFP – 99%
With a win at Texas – 100%
With a loss at Texas – 100%

Texas A&M is in the CFP no matter what happens against Texas. As long as they make the SEC Championship game they have a 58% chance to have a first round bye, win or lose in Atlanta.

Georgia

Current odds to make the CFP – 99%
With a win at Georgia Tech – 100%
With a loss at Georgia Tech – 91%

Similar to Texas A&M, Georgia is almost certainly in the CFP no matter what at this point. The big question is going to be whether or not they will have a first round bye. As of now, they have a 55% chance at a first round bye as long as they win on Friday against the Jackets. That’s even if they are left out of the SEC Championship game.

If they win against Georgia Tech and don’t make the SEC Championship, they have a 75% chance of a first round bye. If they win Friday, then lose the SECCG they have a 55% uchance of a first round bye.

The other interesting thing with Georgia is that if Alabama loses to Auburn, Georgia is in the SEC Championship. If they lose that and fall to 10-3 with two consecutive losses, their number drops to 84% to make the field and just 36% to host a first round game.

Ole Miss

Current odds to make the CFP – 87%
With a win at Mississippi State – 99%
With a loss at Mississippi State – 41%

The hay is in the barn for Ole Miss as long as they win on Friday. They don’t need to make the SEC Championship game to make the field. If they don’t make the game, they still have a 99% chance to make the CFP, an 82% chance to host a first round game, and an 18% chance to have a first round bye.

If they do make the SEC Championship game and lose, their chance to host jumps up to 92% but their odds at getting a first round bye drop to three percent.

Oklahoma

Current odds to make the CFP – 85%
With a win vs LSU– 100%
With a loss vs LSU – 43%

Oklahoma is in “win and in” mode on Saturday. A loss still gives them over 40% chance of making the field, but a win over LSU makes them a lock to make the playoff and an 88% chance of hosting a first round game.

For what it’s worth, Oklahoma may be the most deserving team in America to get in the CFP. In comparison to the top 25 teams in the current rankings, they have played the most top 25 teams this season (5), are tied for most wins against a top 25 team (3), have the highest ranked strength of schedule (No. 5) and hold the highest opponents win percentage (.627). To put that in perspective, only one other team has a top ten SOS (Alabama at No. 9), and only two other teams in the top 25 have an opponents win percentage at .600 or more (BYU and Alabama at .600).

Alabama

Current Odds to make the CFP – 68%
With a win at Auburn – 100%
With a loss at Auburn – 6%

With a win at Auburn, Alabama is in the SEC Championship game. If they win in Atlanta, then they would automatically be in the CFP, but would only have a two percent chance of having a first round bye, despite being the SEC Champion.

They would have a 69% chance of hosting a first round game.If they reach Atlanta and lose the SEC title game, they’d still hold an 82% chance to make the CFP, but only a 23% chance to host and a 58% chance of opening the Playoff on the road.