By Hunt Palmer
It’s time to face the music.
Every season I put together “three bold predictions.” They range in their “boldness,” but I try to inch out on a limb. There comes a time when you have to assess those predictions to see how things played out. That’s today.
I made the predictions on Aug. 14, two weeks into camp and two weeks prior to LSU’s kickoff with Clemson. At that point Brian Kelly had offered significant access to practices. The media was allowed to take in several full workouts with a good bit of 11-on-11.
Expectations were sky high for this LSU team thanks to a revamped roster and a veteran starting quarterback.
Let’s see how I did…
LSU will go unbeaten at home.
This time last year I remember looking at the home slate that included a highly thought of Ole Miss team, Alabama and Oklahoma and thinking, they won’t lose all of those games. Not in that building. Keep in mind, when considering that a pessimistic attitude, LSU was replacing the second best passing game in school history and coming off a debacle of a defensive effort. LSU did not lose all of those games. They won two of them, and Tiger Stadium played a big role in the Ole Miss win. That place is still pretty special.
This year Arkansas comes to town in a game LSU will be heavily favored in. The other three are trickier.
DJ Lagway and Florida will come into Death Valley 2-0 and feeling good. October features visits from two quarterbacks who ran all over Blake Baker’s defense last year—LaNorris Sellers and Marcel Reed. Both South Carolina and Texas A&M are ranked and considered playoff threats based on A&M’s start last year and Carolina’s finish.
Picking LSU to win any of those games would not be all that surprising. Winning them all would be one heck of an effort.
LSU won all its home games in 2019 and 2023 with fifth-year quarterbacks. Why not 2025?
Despite this season being an absolute disaster that cost the coach and athletic director their jobs, this prediction wasn’t too far off. LSU went 6-1 at home, and the Tiger led Texas A&M at halftime. Now, that game was a complete whitewashing in the second half, so the prediction was wrong, but it was on the right track.
Florida actually wasn’t 2-0. They’d lost to South Florida. But the Tigers handled Lagway and the Gators as well as Sellers and the Gamecocks. Reed ran wild for the second year in a row and spoiled this one.
Chris Hilton will top 1,000 yards.
I’m betting on full health here, and if I’d placed that same bet the last four years I’d have had to make trips to the ATM multiple times to double back down. Hilton has had another monster camp showcasing his game breaking speed and intermediate route running. The best way to get to 1,000 yards is to catch some deep balls. Hilton certainly will, but I’m excited for everyone to see what he looks like in the short game as well. He’s not just a burner.
Hilton is my pick to lead LSU in receiving. I think it all finally comes together for No. 3.
This couldn’t have missed worse. Hilton was healthy all season and finished with seven catches for 55 yards. I will promise y’all this. Hilton made catches for three years in practice. We didn’t just make that up. And he did make big plays to finish last season once he got healthy. Director of Athletic Development Jake Flint told me three weeks ago that Hilton was the fastest player on the team and had been tracked at a higher speed than Jelani Watkins who actually runs track!
It just never came together for Hilton in five seasons at LSU. Perhaps Nussmeier’s injury was the biggest problem this year. LSU never tried to stretch the field, and that’s Hilton’s game. Poor pass protection and a banged up quarterback will do that. Hopefully Hilton can enjoy a healthy NFL training camp and make some of the plays he made on The Ponderosa August after August. That’ll give him a shot to make a roster. It just didn’t happen in the falls in Baton Rouge.
LSU will top 45 sacks.
Last year LSU found some pass rush from Brayden Swinson and Co. It was a balanced effort beyond that, but the end result was 34 sacks which was seventh in the SEC. This group has a way, way higher ceiling than that. The three edge transfers-Jack Pyburn, Patrick Payton and Jimari Butler- will get theirs. That includes Pyburn who hasn’t been a rush specialist in his time at Florida.
Bernard Gooden figures to get involved from the interior, and Dominick McKinley had a pair in the Oklahoma game. He could emerge. Plus, Harold Perkins is healthy, and that could mean 7-to-10 from him. Forty-five would have finished third in the SEC a season ago. That’s about where I have this group pegged.
You have an elite rushers coach in Kevin Peoples, an influx of proven talent at end and tackle, an eight-man rotation on the line to keep guys fresh and a team that figures to hold leads late in games. That’s sack time.
I think the LSU pass rush really takes off this year.
As good as LSU’s defense turned out to be, the pass rush never dominated. LSU finished with 27 sacks. That was 51st in the country. Forty-five would have led the country at this point in the season. A&M holds that distinction now with at least one more game to play.
Perkins led the team with four sacks. The edge guys just didn’t make a huge impact in pass rush. Pyburn had two. Butler had two. Payton had one. The Tiger defense was very good, it just wasn’t because of a tenacious pass rush. Some of the lack of production comes from not leading much late in games, too. This was reasonably-well thought out, but the sacks that we saw in August probably had more to do with a poor offensive line than a relentless pass rush.
Final Thoughts
To be fair to me, I didn’t see a lot of 7-5 predictions for this LSU team. That doesn’t make me any closer to being right on these. It does give me company in being dead wrong. That won’t stop me from firing off more predictions in August of next year. One of these years I’ll look like a genius. 2025 wasn’t the one.
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