Statistically Speaking: Saints vs. Panthers

By Ross Jackson

Riding high off of a big win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the New Orleans Saints (3-10) will be back in the Big Easy for a two-game homestand as the end of the season nears. Next up are the Carolina Panthers (7-6), a team the Saints toppled in Week 10 for rookie quarterback Tyler Shough’s first career victory.

Still in search of his first home win, Shough and the Saints seek to make it two wins in a row going up against division opponents. Here is how the Saints and Panthers stack up late in the year.

Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense (Points Per Game)

Saints Offense – T- No. 30 (15.9) | Panthers Defense – No. 16 (22.8)

Panthers Offense – No. 28 (19.0) | Saints Defense – No. 21 (24.2)

The Saints just topped 20 points for the third time this season in Week 14 against the Buccaneers. With the Panthers offense averaging 19 points per game, doing it a fourth time will likely be needed in order to get a win.

New Orleans’ defense has performed well throughout the season, however opposing teams have scored less than 20 points only twice. That includes the aid of some defensive touchdowns and a two-point conversation gone the other way that helped the scoring totals in a few games.

The big difference in this game could be Shough’s playmaking ability. His tendency to dial up big plays with his arm is now being complemented by his abilities as a runner. The threat of both could start to put the Saints in some advantageous situations down the stretch.

Point Differential

Saints – minus-109 (No. 30) | Panthers – minus-50 (No. 22)

The Saints’ scoring troubles are on full display when considering the point differential, accentuated with 20-plus point losses to the Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams and in their first meeting with the Buccaneers. The Panthers have lost by that margin just twice, once to the New England Patriots and again while facing the Buffalo Bills. Both blowouts resulted in 40-point outputs by their opposition. 

Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense (Yards Per Game)

Saints Offense – No. 21 | Panthers Defense – No. 18

Shough is finding timing and rhythm with wide receivers Chris Olave and Devaughn Vele and has continued his chemistry with tight end Juwan Johnson. Olave and Shough connected for a 62-yard touchdown against the Panthers in their first meeting down the right sideline. Shough and Johnson would later connect for another score in that game. The offense will be looking to take advantage of those same shots and big plays this time around in front of the Caesars Superdome crowd. 

Panthers Offense – No. 25 | Saints Defense – No. 6

This appears to be a great matchup for defensive coordinator Brandon Staley’s passing defense. In their last meet, Staley’s defense limited Panthers quarterback Bryce Young to just 124 passing yards, an interception and sacked him twice. The Saints’ passing defense, despite seeing the second-most passing attempts against in the NFL this year, has stood strong and kept yardage from piling up. The same unit just held Tampa passer Baker Mayfield to his lowest completion percentage (46.7%) as a Buccaneer,

Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense (Yards Per Game)

Saints Offense – No. 28 | Panthers Defense – No. 17

Against the Bucs, rookie running back Devin Neal had a breakout performance, totaling 84 yards from scrimmage and notching his first career touchdown run. The trio of him, Evan Hull and Audric Estime combined for the team’s first 100-plus rushing yard day since their last game against Carolina before the bye week. They’ll be hoping to see similar success this time around. 

All eyes will be on veteran running back Alvin Kamara throughout the practice week. His ankle injury has kept him out of the team’s two most recent matchups. Getting him back in the lineup, along with the boosted confidence of Neal, could make for another promising day on the ground.

Panthers Offense – No. 10 | Saints Defense – No. 23

The Saints did a surprisingly good job limiting the Panthers’ run game and running back Rico Dowdle in their last contest. Carolina is the last team to be held to under 100 team rushing yards by New Orleans. Since then, the Saints have allowed more than 120 rushing yards in each of the last three games.

Limiting Dowdle again will be a key element of this game, if the Saints want to pull off another divisional upset. 

Turnover Differential

Saints – minus-5 (T-No. 25) | Panthers – 0 (No. 15)

The Saints have generated a turnover in each of the last four games. The issue is that the offense has also committed a turnover in each of the last eight games, with multiple giveaways in five of those matchups. The Saints will have to do a better job of taking care of the football while still holding on to their playmaking abilities on the defensive side. The Saints have also forced a whopping 12 turnovers on downs, ranking No. 8 in the league in defensive fourth down conversion percentage. 

Third Down Conversion Rate

Saints Offense – 38.1% (No. 20) | Panthers Defense – 44.2% (No. 29)

Panthers Offense – 36.9% (No. 22) | Saints Defense – 35.5% (No. 6)

The Saints’ offense appears evenly matched here, but the defense has been surprisingly strong. Getting Mayfield and his offense off of the field will be a big part of this game, especially early. Both teams rank in the lower 20s in three-and-out percentage with the Bucs slightly better (20.6%) than the Saints (21.8%). 

The first quarter will be the most important to watch. Three-and-outs have been the plague of the Saints’ offense in the opening quarter all year. New Orleans currently holds the second-highest three-and-out percentage in the first quarter so far this season at 37.5%.

Pressure Rate Allowed vs. Generated

Saints Offense – 36.0% (No. 16) | Panthers Defense – 27.7% (No. 32)

Panthers Offense – 36.2% (No. 17) | Saints Defense – 31.4% (No. 26)

There’s very little difference between these two teams from a rankings perspective in this area. Both are top-10 in the league over the last five weeks in limiting pressure felt by their quarterbacks, but defensively, pressure hasn’t been the game for either of these teams. This one will all come down to how much the passers make of each team’s lack of pressure generation. Additionally, which defense makes the pressure they do generate count most could have a big impact on the game’s outcome.