Statistically speaking: Saints vs. Jets

By Ross Jackson

The 4-10 New Orleans Saints are trying to sew up their first three-game winning streak in a season since 2022. In order to do so, they will have to topple the 3-11 New York Jets. 

The recent surge by New Orleans behind rookie quarterback Tyler Shough, a strong defense and several clutch performers, including kicker Charlie Smyth, has those watching turning their attention from the upcoming offseason to the competitive momentum being built now.

Once expected to be a battle for draft positioning, the game has instead turned into an opportunity for New Orleans to continue building momentum after downing two playoff hopefuls and divisional opponents.

Here is a look at both New Orleans and New York from several key statistics and analytics to help prepare for the Saints’ final home game of 2025.

Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense (Points Per Game)

Saints Offense – T- No. 29 (16.1) | Jets Defense – No. 30 (28.4)

Jets Offense – No. 27 (19.7) | Saints Defense – No. 19 (23.7)

The Saints’ defense gives New Orleans a sizable advantage when it comes to points scored for both teams. While the offense is finding its rhythm and continues to do enough to win games, they’ve not been a unit that’s done much pulling away nor have they been seizing large-deficit wins. Instead, the defense manages to keep the game manageable while the offense comes through in the clutch. It’s still a winning formula, but one that has a smaller margin for error. While the Saints’ offense doesn’t score much (only four games of 20 or more points this year), the Jets’ defense doesn’t provide much resistance and the New York offense doesn’t pack much firepower.

If defensive end Chase Young and the Saints’ defense continue to make plays and keep points off the board, the Saints’ offense should be put in good position to outscore the Jets.

Point Differential

Saints – minus-106 (T-No. 27) | Jets – minus-121 (No. 29)

A blowout 28-point loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 15 led to the Jets (further) plummeting down the margins in point differential. The loss also compelled the organization to part ways with defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. However, the group will still be led by head coach Aaron Glenn, who hasn’t found much success yet with his current group. New Orleans, who as noted does not blow out opponents, have moved up the rankings in this metric before other teams have taken considerable late-season falls. The Saints could do themselves some favors this weekend with a decisive victory.

Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense (Yards Per Game)

Saints Offense – No. 20 | Jets Defense – No. 12

The Jets’ passing defense has been one of its bright spots of a dim season. Since trading away top cornerback Sauce Gardner at the trade deadline earlier in the year, they continued to limit opposing teams’ passers until Week 15 against the Jaguars. The team surrendered a season-high 330 passing yards to Jacksonville. 

The Saints and Shough just put together their second-highest passing yards game against the Panthers in Week 15 as well. Both of the team’s best passing yards performances have come with Shough at the helm, but both were against the same Panthers team. Shough, wide receiver Chris Olave and tight end Juwan Johnson will look to show that they can get things moving against other opponents than Carolina.

One big name to watch for this matchup will be that of wide receiver Devaughn Vele. The big-bodied wideout has become a big focus in the Saints’ middle-of-field passing attack. He was injured during the second half of the Saints’ win over the Panthers (shoulder) and was seen in a sling after the game. 

Jets Offense – No. 32 | Saints Defense – No. 6

The Saints’ defense appears on paper to be a juggernaut in this matchup. With three starting quarterbacks already having seen time for the Jets, the offense has been in constant turnover. Rookie quarterback Brady Cook is expected to see his second career start against New Orleans after throwing a touchdown and three interceptions against Jacksonville.

Young and fellow pass rushers Cam Jordan, Carl Granderson and Chris Rumph should all be looking at this game as an opportunity to pester the young passer.

Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense (Yards Per Game)

Saints Offense – No. 27 | Jets Defense – No. 6

The Saints’ rushing offense may be limited by yet another injury at the position. Rookie back Devin Neal left the game against Carolina early with a hamstring injury he suffered running in for his second career touchdown. If the Saints manage to get star rusher Alvin Kamara back on the practice field this week, it could be good news for New Orleans as it gets ready to face another stout rushing defense.

Jets Offense – No. 29 | Saints Defense – No. 25

The Jets offense hasn’t seen much success running the football and the Saints’ defense hasn’t seen enough consistent success stopping it. The Saints have allowed more than 160 team rushing yards in each of the last three games, a total the Jets have surpassed just three times all season and not since their Week 8 win over the Cincinnati Bengals.

Turnover Differential

Saints – minus-4 (T-No. 21) | Jets – minus-17 (No. 32)

The Jets have the worst total in the NFL and the Saints are slowly creeping in the right direction after forcing one takeaway without giving the ball away at all last week against the Panthers. New York is the only team in the NFL that currently has not logged a single interception through their first 14 games. With Cook making just his second start and coming off of a multi-interception debut, the Saints’ defense has to capitalize on the opportunity ahead of them. 

Third Down Conversion Rate

Saints Offense – 39.1% (No. 15) | Jets Defense – 35.3% (No. 4)

Jets Offense – 36.8% (No. 26) | Saints Defense – 36.7% (No. 9)

Both teams have turned in surprisingly good third down performances on defense after starting the year a bit shaky. Shough and the Saints’ offense have had a positive impact on the team’s third down rate. 

Pressure Rate Allowed vs. Generated

Saints Offense – 35.4% (No. 12) | Jets Defense – 30.2% (No. 30)

Jets Offense – 41.2% (No. 30) | Saints Defense – 33.2% (No. 23)

It’s a good thing that the Jets haven’t been a very pressure-heavy team as the Saints may be down a third Week 1 starter against them. Starting right guard Cesar Ruiz exited last week’s game with an ankle injury. Will Sherman stepped in well for him in a pinch. 

Meanwhile, the Saints’ pass rush should be licking its chops ahead of this matchup against one of the worst protection units in the NFL. This is a game Young and his group must take advantage of. The symbiotic process between rush and coverage will be massively important in this game for New Orleans, and both are in positive territory against the Jets.