Alabama, Oklahoma set for third meeting in CFP opener

By Chris Marler

Alabama and Oklahoma meet in the opening game of the 2025–26 College Football Playoff, marking their third matchup in 13 months. Oklahoma won the previous two.

The line opened with Alabama favored by 1.5 points, it has shifted a total of three points in the last 24-hours to Oklahoma being favored by 1.5 points. 

Alabama has looked like a shell of itself from earlier in the year. Part of that is being completely one dimensional on offense and another is that they have been riddled with injuries. Oklahoma picked up a huge win in Tuscaloosa, then limped to the finish with narrow escapes against Missouri and LSU, needing a last-minute touchdown in both.

How will this Friday’s game go? Here’s our preview. 

Highest Graded Players in the Alabama/Oklahoma Matchup📊 pic.twitter.com/yPf06bWLWw

— PFF College (@PFF_College) December 18, 2025

Alabama wins IF they win the turnover battle. 

The last time these two met, Alabama came into the game leading the SEC in turnover margin at +10. They had finished every game at even or positive in turnover margin. Oklahoma on the other hand had lost the turnover battle in seven of their nine games and had multiple turnovers in four of those seven. 

Alabama lost the turnover battle -3 that day in Tuscaloosa, turning the ball over three times, including twice inside its own 30-yard line. They also missed a 36-yard field goal right before halftime. Alabama doubled up Oklahoma in yardage the first time these two met, and did so against what has been the best defense in the SEC, and maybe the country, all year long. 

It’s hard to beat a team twice in a season. Alabama knows all about that when it comes to Georgia. Will Oklahoma find out the same thing Friday? 

Alabama WR Germie Bernard says the lights at Oklahoma ‘got him’ during last year’s loss.

The Tide returns to Norman for the first round of the College Football Playoff on Friday. 🐘🏈 #rolltide pic.twitter.com/wjNbvKO4i1

— Alabama Crimson Tide | AL.com (@aldotcomTide) December 17, 2025

Oklahoma wins IF John Mateer is September John Mateer again. 

Mateer was incredible in the month of September, and big wins over Michigan and Auburn helped make him the Heisman frontrunner at one point this season. In four games during the first month of the season, Mateer had 11 touchdowns and at least 300 yards of offense every time he stepped on the field. 

He averaged 351.3 yards of offense per game and was just as dangerous on the ground as he was through the air, scoring at least one rushing touchdown in every game. He also had at least 270 yards passing in each of his first four games, a feat he would only reach once more all season in the last game of the year against LSU. 

In the first game between these two, Mateer finished with just 161 yards of offense and 4.9 yards per play. That was the fewest total yards he had in any game this season. 

If John Mateer returns to his September-Heisman form, Oklahoma becomes a legit CFP contender pic.twitter.com/tAuxQykD5D

— Cory Wargo CFB (@CFBUpdate_) December 12, 2025

Alabama X Factor – TE Josh Cuevas 

Cuevas has been exceptional for Alabama this year when he’s been healthy. Sadly, the last time he was healthy was against Oklahoma. In that game he finished with six catches for 80 yards and a touchdown which led Alabama. That was a career high for Cuevas, and it came against one of the best defenses in America. He’s been a huge part of the offense when healthy and is key as an extra blocker in the run game. This will be his first game back since the Oklahoma game after missing the last three.

It sounds like Josh Cuevas will return to action on Friday for Alabama. The Crimson Tide TE has 30 receptions on the season and 22 of those have resulted in a first down. pic.twitter.com/j3Yyk7GNmb

— Brennen Rupp (@Brennen_Rupp) December 17, 2025

Oklahoma X Factor – EDGE R Mason Thomas 

Thomas has been dealing with a quad injury since the Tennessee game during a scoop and score on a sack of Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar. Thomas has been a game wrecker for most of the season, and has been unblockable at times while constantly wreaking havoc in the opponent’s backfields. He missed the first game against Alabama and the last three games overall for the Sooners, but he still leads them in sacks with 6.5 on the season. He also has 9.5 tackles for loss this season. He’ll be going up against an Alabama offensive line that has struggled at times this season at protecting Ty Simpson. 

Alabama has given up at least three sacks in each of their last three games against SEC opponents. That includes four to Oklahoma, who was without their star pass rusher the first time around. 

R MASON THOMAS PUTTIN THE TEAM ON HIS BACK GREG JENNINGS STYLE pic.twitter.com/W1PG0LP5oy

— Barstool SEC (@SECBarstool) November 2, 2025

Prediction 

It’s hard to beat a team twice. I think a lot has been made out of how bad Alabama looked in Atlanta against Georgia, but this is not that same team. That team was down five starters in the game including Josh Cuevas, and their top two running backs. I expect Brent Venables to mirror a lot of what Kirby Smart and Georgia were able to do in that game. 

Ultimately, I think doubting Alabama and Kalen DeBoer in games like this is a big mistake. 

Alabama 17 Oklahoma 13.