Statistically Speaking: Saints at Titans

By Ross Jackson

Much like last week, the New Orleans Saints are bracing for a game against another team, the Tennessee Titans, who are also eliminated from playoff contention. Despite that, both teams are playing hard as they build culture and create winning habits. Something the Saints, in particular, have been very successful in doing down the stretch.

The Saints are on their first three-game win streak since 2023 and could see their first four-game streak since 2020 with a win on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Titans have won two of their last three, including a win against the Patrick Mahomes-less Kansas City Chiefs in Week 16.

The battle between rookie quarterbacks is sure to steal the show in this game as both teams are eyeing a chance this offseason to build around their quarterbacks of the future. Before then, though, they’ll face one another as the clubs continue to build momentum they hope to carry into the 2026 season.

Here is an overview of the matchup that will kickoff at 12:00 p.m. CT from Nashville, Tenn. 

Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense (Points Per Game)

Saints Offense – No. 29 (17.0) | Titans Defense – No. 26 (26.9)

Titans Offense – No. 30 (16.7) | Saints Defense – No. 14 (22.5)

Both teams are fairly close in scoring potential. Even their highest scoring outputs aren’t far from one another. The Saints just saw their best points total in a game against the Jets, a game in which they scored 29 points while kicker Charlie Smyth tied the club record with five made field goals in a game. The Titans’ highest scoring output was 31 points just three games ago in a win over the Cleveland Browns. 

The difference will be centered around which defense holds up. The Saints have had a resurgence on the defensive side ranking as the No. 2 scoring defense in the NFL since Week 10, allowing just 15.8 points per game. 

Point Differential

Saints – minus-83 (No. 24) | Titans – minus-153 (No. 31)

For the first time in several weeks, New Orleans is finally below the minus-100 scoring margin threshold. The team’s 23-point win over the Jets helped a lot as the team saw its highest scoring output (29 points) of the season in that game. 

The Titans have lost four games by 20 or more points, but have also scored more than 20 seven times. The issue? They’ve allowed less than 20 only twice. Both of those games have followed Tennessee’s Week 10 bye week. 

Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense (Yards Per Game)

Saints Offense – No. 19 | Titans Defense – No. 21

After achieving his first career 300-yard passing game, Shough is building momentum headed into Nissan Stadium. His top wideout, Chris Olave, just set a new career high in receiving yards with 148 and added his second two-touchdown game of the season. The two will be looking to build on their momentum against a susceptible passing defense.

Olave is just eight catches and two touchdown receptions away from becoming the Saints’ first player in franchise history to reach 100 catches, 1,000 receiving yards and 10 receiving touchdowns in a single year. He enters the game with 1,044 receiving yards, just 80 shy of his career best mark set in 2023. The Titans allow the seventh-most passing yards to wide receivers across the league.

Tight end Juwan Johnson will likely be a focus again in the passing game, as well. The tight end has set career highs in both receptions and receiving yards already and could build upon those numbers against Tennessee. However, the Titans have allowed just 769 receiving yards to tight ends all season, so Johnson may need to battle for his production. 

Titans Offense – No. 31 | Saints Defense – No. 4

New Orleans has a clear advantage here. So far, defensive coordinator Brandon Staley is 2-0 against rookie quarterbacks this year. He limited New York Giants rookie Jaxson Dart in the team’s first win of the season back in Week 5 and stonewalled rookie quarterback Brady Cook last week against the New York Jets.

Tennessee Titans rookie signal caller Cam Ward is an entirely different beast. He’s been starting since Week 1 (the Saints faced both Dart and Cook in their second career starts) and will challenge with the explosive and dynamic playmaking ability that turned him into the No. 1 overall selection in the 2025 NFL Draft. However, the Titans’ receiving weapons are limited. 

Tennessee’s leading pass-catcher is tight end Chig Okonkwo with 503 receiving yards and a lone touchdown catch, which he reeled in last week against the Kansas City Chiefs. Wide receiver Chimere Dike leads the team in touchdown receptions with four while rookie Elic Ayomanor finally piqued interest again in the team’s win over the Chiefs after a few quiet weeks.

Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense (Yards Per Game)

Saints Offense – No. 30 | Titans Defense – No. 18

The Saints’ rushing offense has been without starting backs Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller for multiple weeks and will now continue moving ahead without standout rookie rusher Devin Neal. Against the Jets’ No. 6-ranked rushing defense, New Orleans couldn’t get a run game going. This week, backs Audric Estime, Evan Hull and quarterback Taysom Hill will look to gather greater consistency against a weaker, but still very talented front.

Titans Offense – No. 29 | Saints Defense – No. 22

New Orleans held up well against the Jets last week holding running back Breece Hall to just 54 yards rushing (3.4 yards per carry) on the day. The Titans’ leading rusher Tony Pollard averages 63.3 rushing yards per game, 4.5 per carry. The Saints’ run defense is expected to be without defensive tackle Bryan Bresee, who has made strides as a run defender this year. Fellow big bodies Jonathan Bullard, John Ridgeway III and possibly second-year interior defender Khristian Boyd may be called upon in Nashville.

Turnover Differential

Saints – minus-3 (No. 19) | Titans – minus-4 (T-No. 20)

Both teams have done well to take care of the ball and take it away at a close enough rate. Though, both slightly lean towards giving it a way more often. While New Orleans has given the ball away 21 times as compared to Tennessee’s 17, the Saints and Titans have each held a plus-0.7 turnover margin per game over their last three contests.

Third Down Conversion Rate

Saints Offense – 39.8% (No. 14) | Titans Defense – 39.1% (No. 16)

Titans Offense – 32.0% (No. 32) | Saints Defense – 34.8% (No. 4)

New Orleans has made some major strides in both sides of the ball. From second-half of the league to top-half on both sides of the ball including a top-five third down defense, the turnaround has been impressive. 

The Saints’ defense should have a very positive matchup in this area while the offense looks to be evenly matched. The most positive step New Orleans has taken on third downs is leaping from a 23.8% conversion rate on third and medium (four to six yards) from Weeks 1-8 to a stellar 51.6% since Week 9.

Pressure Rate Allowed vs. Generated

Saints Offense – 34.2% (No. 8) | Titans Defense – 35.7% (No. 19)

Titans Offense – 36.4% (No. 19) | Saints Defense – 32.4% (No. 24)

The Saints’ defense is just three sacks shy of reaching 49 sacks in a season since the 2022 season. Meanwhile, Ward is the second-most sacked quarterback in the NFL, sacked 51 times this season. That’s 3.4 sacks surrendered per game. It’s a perfect setup for New Orleans to eclipse that sack total as its defense looks to build off of an eight-sack performance against the Jets. 

On offense, New Orleans has done well protecting Shough from the pressure perspective against some suspect pass rushes. The Titans, however, present a true challenge in this area. Tennessee’s 38 sacks are just above New Orleans, but the Tennessee defense has done a much better job sustaining pressure generation. 

Defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons and edge rushers Jihad Ward and Arden Key (former LSU Tiger) all present a true threat to Shough and his protection. This could be the biggest game changing factor that favors Tennessee. 

Shough has been sacked three or more times in the last five games. He’s also been sacked 3.3 times per start, not far off of Ward’s rate.