Credit: Randy Sartin-Imagn Images
By Chris Marler
Two preseason top 20 teams that had hopes for the CFP will square off in Nashville on Tuesday in the Music City Bowl. Here’s our full preview for Tennessee versus Illinois.
Tennessee will win IF – Joey Aguilar doesn’t turn the football over
Joey Aguilar was an incredible find, and bargain, for Tennessee at the quarterback position. Aguilar is a true gunslinger who doesn’t lack confidence, but does lack good decision making skills at times. He put up incredible numbers on the season, with nearly 67 percent completion percentage, over 3,400 yards and 27 touchdowns.
The season-long reality is simple: when he plays well, the team can be really good; when he struggles, everything follows. Even accounting for a few picks that weren’t on him, he still finished with 10 interceptions, his third straight season as an FBS starter with double digits.
Even worse, five of those ten came in Tennessee’s four losses. Tennessee’s offense led the SEC in rushing yards each of the last two seasons, but finished eighth this year. A lot will fall on the shoulders of Aguilar who I’m sure will want to have a big game in what could be his last collegiate start.
JOEY AGUILAR SHOWS OFF THE CANNON ON THIS 73-YARD TD 😮💨 @Vol_Football pic.twitter.com/NesTMpF4Eq
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) August 30, 2025
Illinois will win IF – They can weather the storm early
Tennessee leads the nation in first quarter points per game, with 12.9 against FBS opponents. They’re third in the country in first half points per game with 23. Fast starts have been a staple of Josh Heupel offenses in Knoxville. In fact, going into this season his teams scored first in 40 of his 52 games as the Vols head coach. Illinois ranks 63rd in the country in first half scoring at 13.7 ppg. That’s less than a point more than the Vols average in the first quarter alone. They also rank 80th in first quarter scoring.
Illinois will need to keep this game close in the first half if they have any hope of staying close late in the second half.
Illinois head coach Bret Bielema taunted Shane Beamer with the substitution signal.
Beamer almost went after him pic.twitter.com/qBoZZQxIxZ
— Jordan Kaye (@jordankaye_23) December 31, 2024
Tennessee X-Factor – WR Mike Matthews
Matthews is only the third leading receiver on the team this year, but the former five-star should be licking his chops at this Illinois defense.
The Illini rank 80th nationally in pass defense. Matthews is second on the team in yards per catch at 15.4 and second on the team in yards after catch with 344. A ridiculous 44.3 percent of his receiving yards this season have come after the catch. Chris Brazzell II and freshman Braylon Staley are also really big weapons for the Vols, but those two may get more attention than Matthews allowing him to have a big day.
WELCOME TO THE PARTY MIKE MATTHEWS 🔥
THIS IS A CONNECTION WE NEED MORE OF! pic.twitter.com/571OHbB081
— FOX Sports Knoxville (@FOXSportsKnox) September 6, 2025
Illinois X-Factor – QB Luke Altmyer
Altmyer is the opposite of Aguilar, however they do have one thing in common. Most of the offensive production rests on his shoulders, just like Aguilar. Illinois ranks 99th in the country in rushing offense at just 131.2 ypg. The good news is that their signal caller has been really good at protecting the football. Over the past two seasons, Altmyer has accounted for 51 touchdowns and just 11 interceptions. He’s been really good against elite competition this season, throwing for four touchdowns to only one interception.
Where Altmyer is most dangerous though is in the redzone. In fact, 19 of his 25 touchdowns this season came in the red zone. He’ll be facing a Tennessee defense that ranks 103rd nationally in red zone defense.
ILLINI FOOTBALL BOWL NOTES about LUKE ALTMYER: 22-12 record as a starter at Illinois … Leads the nation in career game-winning drives in the final minute/OT among active QBs with six … UI is 14-2 when he throws 2+ touchdown passes … 53/14 TD/INT ratio in his last 31 games. pic.twitter.com/bdeKtc0FIY
— Mike Pearson (@illinilegends) December 26, 2025
Prediction
Illinois comes into this game as a 2.5 point underdog. They were one of the best in the country against the spread all season with a 7-4-1 mark. Last year, Illinois faced South Carolina in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl and bullied the Gamecocks for four quarters. This is not the same Illinois team, though. They don’t score enough points, and more importantly they don’t score enough early.
Tennessee 27, Illinois 20
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