Stephen Lew-Imagn Images
By Chris Marler
One of the more overlooked bowl games of the season will be played in Tampa on Wednesday, as Iowa and Vanderbilt face off in another Big Ten versus SEC showdown. Here’s our full game preview.
Vanderbilt will win IF…
They can score.
That may sound simple, but it won’t be in this game.
Vanderbilt won ten games for the first time in program history this season, and is coming off a three game stretch where they not only won all three games but scored 45 points or more in each. They are facing one of the best defenses in America.
Iowa ranks sixth nationally in scoring defense and finished top 20 nationally in passing yards allowed (158.2), rushing yards allowed (112.4), and yards per play (4.52). Iowa faced three offenses ranked in the top 12 in the FBS in scoring (Indiana, Oregon, and Southern Cal), and they allowed just over 21 ppg in those games. Points will be at a premium for Vanderbilt.
Iowa will win IF…
They can limit Diego Pavia.
I know, I know what a novel concept. But, it will be the key for Iowa. This is the best Hawkeye offense in the last five years, averaging over 28.8 points per game. They should be able to get to 20 points against a good, not great, Vanderbilt defense.
The biggest concern for them will be limiting what may be the most dynamic quarterback they’ve played all season, and that includes Oregon’s Dante Moore and the Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza. Both of those quarterbacks are in discussion to be the top overall pick in the NFL Draft, and both of them were limited to just 13 completions against this defense.
Pavia finished the regular season on an absolute tear averaging over 450 yards of offense per game and four touchdowns per game.
Vanderbilt X-Factor – WR Junior Sherrill
With Eli Stowers out, and the Commodores facing an exceptionally good defense, watch for Junior Sherrill to emerge as a top target in this game for Pavia. He was great all season for Vanderbilt, finishing second on the team in receptions and third in yards with 46 for 661 yards and seven touchdowns. He especially came on late in the season during the last four games of the year. In those games he had 20 catches and 75 yards or more in all four.
Sherrill was the leading target for receivers all season, and should get even more targets in this game.
Iowa X-Factor – Kaden Wetjen
He hasn’t caught a pass in the last two games for Iowa, but he is the best return man in the country. He ended the season with three punt return touchdowns and one kickoff return score, becoming the first player in Big Ten history to accomplish that feat. He led the country in return yards with 965 and had a ridiculous 28.3 yard per return on punts this season.
He doesn’t impact the offense very much at all, averaging less than three touches per game on the year. This one should be simple for Clark Lea.
Don’t kick it to Wetjen.
Score Prediction
Vanderbilt doesn’t have a slew of optouts at all, but missing Eli Stowers, the best tight end in America, will be a big loss. Iowa however, has no opt outs and will be at full strength. Iowa has the most SEC resumé imaginable for a Big Ten team. What I mean by that is that they are 8-4, but all four losses came to ranked opponents and by single digits. The four losses came by a total of 15 points. The Hawkeyes also won the Joe Moore Award.
Love him or hate him, Diego Pavia has had an incredible collegiate career and put Vanderbilt football on the map. This is a bad matchup for Vanderbilt though.
Iowa 27, Vanderbilt 23
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