Statistically Speaking: Saints at Falcons

By Ross Jackson

The 6-10 New Orleans Saints will travel to wrap up their season at the 7-9 Atlanta Falcons. It will be a tough test for New Orleans to close out the season, but a game that could be quite the statement for the team’s momentum headed into the offseason. 

Here is an overview of the matchup that will kickoff at 12:00 p.m. CT from Atlanta, Ga. . 

Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense (Points Per Game)

Saints Offense – No. 29 (18.1) | Falcons Defense – No. 20 (24.0)

The Saints have made strides in the right direction here, seeing their average points per game skyrocket to 27.1 over the last three weeks. But their low scoring outputs from earlier in the season keep the overall average down. 

Quarterback Tyler Shough has made quite the difference here, attacking downfield at a high rate of success. But a tandem of talented safeties in Atlanta may be a massive hurdle to overcome in that area. New Orleans hasn’t gotten much help from its run game this season, but a rushing and defensive touchdown last week against the Titans helped propel the team to a win. The Saints will need help again this week at Atlanta. 

Falcons Offense –T- No. 23 (20.9) | Saints Defense – T-No. 16 (22.8)

New Orleans has surrendered the second-fewest points in the NFL (tied with the Minnesota Vikings at 16.3 points per game) over the last three weeks. But Atlanta is going to be riding high off of its victory against the Los Angeles Rams. This is going to be the most important duel of the day as the teams clash in Week 18. 

The Saints suffered early against the Titans last week with miscommunications on the back end and a scrambling quarterback that extended plays at an impressive clip. This week, the team will face a less agile option in Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins, something the pass rush will have to make play in their favor. 

Point Differential

Saints – minus-75 (T-No. 24) | Falcons – minus-50 (No. 22)

The Saints have been creeping in the right direction over the course of their four-game win streak, but the Falcons are doing the same having won three in a row now. 

Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense (Yards Per Game)

Saints Offense – No. 17 | Falcons Defense – No. 11

Shough will face his biggest test of the year since his win streak began. It will be the second time he has faced the Falcons this year, so applying what he learned about them in the first matchup will be necessary. But with safeties Jessie Bates III and Xavier Watts in the defensive backfield for Atlanta along with a talented pass rush that will face an injured offensive line, the task will not be easy. 

Watts will be coming off of an impressive two-interception performance against the Rams on Monday Night Football. The Falcons defense will be ready to host with a lot of confidence. Shough and wide receiver Chris Olave will have to have a magical day to soar above the test ahead. 

Falcons Offense – No. 19 | Saints Defense – No. 5

New Orleans has been outstanding against the pass this year. At least, while not facing a quarterback that creates 4.07 seconds to throw on average like Titans’ passer Cam Ward did in Week 17. Facing a veteran in Cousins is always a challenge because of his experience. The last time these two teams met, New Orleans held Cousins to just 199 passing yards on the day, but he still threw a pair of touchdowns. So while defending yardage is a positive, keeping the passing game out of the endzone is all that really matters. The Saints have surrendered 24 passing touchdowns in the year, No. 14 in the league. 

Last time, the Falcons were also without wide receiver Drake London and hadn’t seen the late-season surge of tight end Kyle Pitts. 

Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense (Yards Per Game)

Saints Offense – No. 30 | Falcons Defense – No. 26

New Orleans is going to need a repeat performance from running back Audric Estime. The second-year back ran for the most rushing yards (94) in his career and the most by a Saints running back since Week 2 against the Titans. If the Falcons have one glaring weakness on defense, it’s the run game. If the Saints can somehow get a ground game going, they’ll need to do so through Estime and that could help keep the ball away from Atlanta’s offense before they get a chance to control the game on the ground instead. 

Falcons Offense – No. 5 | Saints Defense – No. 23

This is a winnable game for New Orleans, but there’s little doubt that the Falcons will be seen as the better team. One of the reasons for that  is running back Bijan Robinson. 

Robinson ripped off a 93-yard rushing touchdown against the Rams and added another 102 ground yards before the day was over. He has scored at least one touchdown in each of the last three games and has averaged more than four yards per carry every week since the Falcons’ Week 10 matchup with the Indianapolis Colts. 

Beyond that, New Orleans struggles against the run despite recent improvements. Facing a top tier back like Robinson means the Saints’ best defense may be its offense and playing the time of possession game. 

Turnover Differential

Saints – minus-3 (T-No. 21) | Falcons – plus-4 (T-No. 8)

It’s been a few weeks since the Saints have faced a team with a positive turnover differential. This week, they’ll face a Falcons team that has forced at least one takeaways in four consecutive games. The Saints have a habit of early miscues, they can’t allow that to set the tone against an opportunistic team like Atlanta. 

Third Down Conversion Rate

Saints Offense – 40.1% (No. 14) | Falcons Defense – 40.9% (No. 20)

Falcons Offense – 33.7% (No. 29) | Saints Defense – 34.7% (No. 3)

Extending drives will be a key factor in playing the ball control game Sunday. The Saints have the advantage on both sides of this matchup in third downs. The New Orleans defense in particular has been stellar in this area. 

Pressure Rate Allowed vs. Generated

Saints Offense – 34.7% (No. 10) | Falcons Defense – 36.7% (No. 16)

Falcons Offense – 35.1% (T-No. 12) | Saints Defense – 33.8% (No. 22)

The Saints have more than 40 sacks for the first time since 2022 and while edge rushers Chase Young and Carl Granderson combined for 15 pressures last week against the Titans, the Falcons have done a much better job keeping their quarterbacks clean. 

Being pestered in the backfield isn’t new for Shough. He’s already spent nearly a third of his season’s snaps under pressure and has managed it well enough. He’s been particularly impactful when blitzed, but the talented Falcons front can get home with four. 

New Orleans has improved substantially as a pressure defense. Starting the season nearly dead-last in pressure percentage, the Saints have climbed out of the bottom ten spots by season’s end. Cousins has completed just 41.9% of his passes when under pressure this season but has played very well against the blitz, completing 63.4 of his passes and throwing five touchdowns to one interception. 

The Saints have trusted their front four to get pressure in recent weeks, it appears likely that will be the plan again in Atlanta.