Fiesta Bowl: Ole Miss vs Miami Preview

By Chris Marler

Ole Miss and Miami square off in the CFP Semifinal Fiesta Bowl on Thursday. Here’s our full preview. 

Ole Miss will win IF… 

They can turn Carson Beck-yll into Carson Hyde. 

Man that was a stretch, but you get it. We have seen Carson Beck be great at times. It was just a season ago that he was projected as the potential number one overall pick in the NFL Draft before the 2024 season when he was at Georgia. He’s completed 70 percent or more of his passes in nine straight games, and as a starter he’s only lost five times in the last three seasons. In four of those five losses he threw ten interceptions including six in the two for Miami this season. 

Carson Beck’s 2024 Numbers against Ranked Opponents and Unranked Opponents

There are a number of reasons outside of his gf why this was a great move for all parties involved. #GoDawgs #TheU pic.twitter.com/d2ANOOWmue

— Chris Marler (@Vern_Funquist) January 10, 2025

That Carson Beck is still in there. It’s up to Pete Golding and the Ole Miss defense to help him resurrect himself. It hasn’t happened in awhile though. Since losing to SMU, Miami has won six straight games, and Beck has thrown for 13 touchdowns and just one interception in those six games. The secondary has allowed 525 yards in the first two games of the CFP, but they haven’t allowed a quarterback to complete over 58 percent of his passes against them in seven straight games. 

Miami will win IF…

Their defensive line can take over the game.

I don’t think Ole Miss will have to run for some substantial amount against Miami to win. That’s partially because they have been so good through the air, and it’s partially because of how good Miami has been at stopping the run. The Hurricanes are a top five run defense in America and have held their first two opponents in the College Football Playoff to 95 and 109 yards under their season average for Texas A&M and Ohio State respectively. 

Rueben Bain Jr. reps vs. Ohio State

What do you notice? pic.twitter.com/qspWXl2z7L

— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) January 2, 2026

Their defensive front four has been incredible in the first two rounds of the CFP racking up 12 sacks in just two games. Coming into the first round game against Miami, Texas A&M had allowed just 12 sacks all year which was the best all season in the SEC. The Hurricanes sacked Marcel Reed seven times. They got Julian five times in the next game, despite the Buckeyes allowing just 11 all season before that game. 

Ole Miss leads the SEC in sacks allowed now with just 18 all year and zero in the Sugar Bowl against Georgia. What that number is at when they leave Arizona will have a lot to do with the outcome. 

Ole Miss X-Factor – Trinidad Chambliss’ legs 

If Ole Miss wins this game, Chambliss will be holding the MVP trophy on the podium as the confetti falls in Glendale. Miami has been great at stopping the run all year, and I expect nothing to change on Thursday. Kewan Lacy is a great back, but I think the key for Ole Miss is Trinidad Chambliss being able to extend plays with his legs and convert key third downs with scrambles as well. On third and three or less this season Ole Miss has run Kewan Lacy 30 times. On those downs he’s averaged 3.53 yards per carry with 19 first downs. Chambliss has averaged 7.83 yards per carry in those same situations. 

Proof that stars don’t matter.

Trinidad Chambliss was the 60th-ranked QB in the portal, transferred up from D-II, and is out here making a Kirby Smart defense look silly at times.

This play is elite. pic.twitter.com/nbmW4MpR4G

— Toby Corriston (@toby_cu) January 2, 2026

Miami X-Factor – RB Mark Fletcher Jr

I don’t know what Miami was doing with Fletcher this season. Maybe they were just resting him for the postseason, but he’s become their best offensive weapon. That’s saying something since WR Malachi Toney exists. 

In the regular season, Fletcher had just two games with 17 or more carries. In those two games he had over 100 yards in each and four touchdowns. Shocking, I know. The Hurricanes have followed that blueprint so far in the playoff, and to the surprise of no one, it has paid off. In two games he’s 36 carries for 262 yards and a 7.3 ypc clip. He also has two receptions for 25 yards and a touchdown that both came against Ohio State. 

Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr is the best blocking RB in College Football! Here’s why⬇️ pic.twitter.com/vw1PPIzsA1

— LandonTengwall (@LandonTengwall) January 6, 2026

Ole Miss struggled at stopping Georgia RB Nate Frazier before he was injured late in the fourth quarter. Fletcher is taller than Frazier at 6-foot-2, but both are physically compact and uber strong backs that run through contact. Frazier finished the Sugar Bowl with 18 touches for 126 yards. Look for the Hurricanes to try and do something similar with Fletcher. 

Score Prediction 

This matchup is going to be a good one, and it’s also one that feels great for the sport. A team that everyone expected to roll over and die after their coach left versus a team that many thought didn’t deserve to even be in the playoff to begin with. Now those two teams will play for a chance at a spot in the national championship. 

I love this Miami team. Not just because they beat Ohio State which felt like a win for America, but also because they are built from the inside out with great play in the trenches and elite talent at key positions like the defensive line and skill positions. They’re favored over Ole Miss currently by 3.5 points. 

Georgia was favored by double that, and Ole Miss won. 

Allow me to do something not enough people outside of Oxford or the SEC have done this season, and that is give Ole Miss their flowers. This team is 13-1 and just knocked off the SEC Champion in the Sugar Bowl after one of the craziest five weeks off the field imaginable. Pete Golding got everyone inside the four walls of their facilities to believe right away, and now people on the outside looking in are as well. Ole Miss isn’t just a fun story, it’s the best story in college football this season. 

The Rebels have scored 30 or more points in eight straight games. Miami hasn’t allowed more than 17 in eight of their last nine games. Something has to break. I think it’s Miami. 

Ole Miss 28, Miami 24