By Ross Jackson
This is a promising projection for the New Orleans Saints. The heavily celebrated “Compensatory Picks Guy” Nick Korte included the Saints in 20 different compensatory pick scenarios heading into the 2026 NFL Draft. In each and every projection, New Orleans’ potential fourth-round selection did convey.
I’ve finalized OTC’s 2026 compensatory pick projection.
Here are 20 scenarios that could happen depending on what the leaguewide number of players considered could be.
New information I’ve discovered means I’m projecting that 1,967 will be the number. pic.twitter.com/QkxhjOnqHN
— Nick Korte (@nickkorte) January 21, 2026
That means that the Saints are indeed likely to see the fourth-round pick they are expected to receive for the departure of former cornerback Paulson Adebo, though not final.
Compensatory pick formulas constantly shift and change, but the bare bones thinking behind them is effectively free agency insurance. If a team loses a higher-valued free agent on an expiring contract than that which they sign ahead of the conclusion of the NFL Draft, the team may receive compensation in the form of a draft pick in rounds three through seven in order to help them recuperate talent.
The value of a free agent that has left and a free agent that has signed is, of course, based on metrics such as contract terms and percentage of snaps played.
Departed players that yield a higher value disparity than comparable signings return higher selections to their original teams.
The Saints risked losing their 2026 compensatory selection because of its acquisition of cornerback Isaac Yiadom. However, Yiadom saw a lower percentage of snaps (16%) on defense than the 25% share that would have jeopardized the additional pick.
This was possible because of the play of rookie cornerback Quincy Riley, who has similar production to Adebo, who signed with the New York Giants last offseason.
So now, New Orleans is in great position to receive a second fourth-round selection. If that projection holds, New Orleans will have the following picks in the 2026 NFL Draft:
Selections after the original third round picks are yet to be determined due to the variable of how many compensatory selections will be awarded per round.
Round 1, Pick 8
Round 2, Pick 42
Round 3, Pick 73
Round 4, Pick TBD (via Seattle)
Round 4, Pick TBD (compensatory)
Round 5, Pick TBD
Round 5, Pick TBD (via Seattle)
Round 6, Pick TBD
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