LSU Athletics
By Hunt Palmer
This will probably be a weekend we look back on in June.
The tone of that reflection will tell the story of the season. Was it a sign of a struggling offense, or was it a massive outlier?
Oddly, LSU won three of four games and lost “a close one” in the finale. That, on its face, is a perfectly reasonable four-game weekend. With context, though, it worsens.
The weekend came on the heels of a midweek loss to McNeese where the Tigers got behind 7-1. The three wins came despite an extremely feeble offensive effort, and Monday was closer to the 13-2 deficit than the 13-10 final.
LSU isn’t playing well.
That part is not up for debate. The question becomes, how serious is the situation?
OFFENSIVE ISSUES
The statistics from the four-game series are warped because LSU’s bench players hit the ball hard off the end of the Northeastern pitching staff for two innings on Monday night. That 10-spot, for the purposes of analysis, was fraudulent.
So, I’m going to cherry pick here a little bit, but I do so for better accuracy.
Over three games on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, LSU was 14-for-85 (.165) which included a 6-for-43 (.140) with runners on base and a paltry 2-for-24 (.083) with runners in scoring position. In three games against poor pitching staffs, LSU produced five extra base hits–four doubles and a homer.
The fact that LSU won all three games was a minor miracle.
LSU started Monday’s game 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position to run that total to 3-for-31 (.097) on the weekend. The first extra base hit on Monday came in the eighth when Eddie Yamin homered. Through nearly four full games, LSU mustered six extra base hits.
For the four-game set, Derek Curiel, Steven Milam, Zach Yorke and Cade Arrambide combined to go 7-for-49 (.143).
A week ago in Jacksonville, LSU was retired in order 3-of-24 (12.5%) offensive innings. Over the last three games this weekend (including Monday), the starters were basically in the game for the first 21 offensive innings and went up and down eight times (38.1%).
Those are the numbers.
My concern level with this offense is very low. I believe in the track record of the players and the coaching staff to catch fire again. It would be one thing if they hadn’t hit for three weeks. They absolutely blistered decent pitching in Jacksonville.
Curiel is going to break out. He’s hitting .294. Brown is a potential All-American who carried LSU on Sunday. Milam has a heater in him. Yorke and Seth Dardar have hit a ton for three and four years.
The next team Johnson fields at LSU that really struggles on offense will be his first, and I’m not betting on this one. Better to slump against teams you can beat with pitching than to cost yourself league games while you figure it out.
STELLAR STARTS
To me, the biggest development of the weekend by a country mile was William Schmidt‘s start. I was cautious after the five shutout innings against UCF because there were still some small command things I wanted tightened up.
He took an Allen wrench to those issues on Sunday and just stuffed Dartmouth in a locker for more than seven innings. He lived ahead in counts, only going to three three-ball counts. He didn’t walk anyone and struck out nine without allowing an extra base hit. The two times a little bit of trouble showed up, the fifth and sixth, he got three huge strikeouts when he needed them. Both breaking balls were on, and he didn’t spray the fastball.
The UCF start was a nice one. This was dominant, and it’s exactly what LSU needs from Schmidt.
For the second time in three weeks, Cooper Moore carved up an overmatched team. And seeing how Northeastern swung the bats on Monday, maybe Moore’s start looks even better. He retired 11 of the first 12 and only gave up three hits.
His changeup sets the table for everything else, and it was on for him Sunday. That pitch speeds up his low 90s fastball and allows him to use the bender to steal strikes early in counts. He gave up a one-out double in a 3-1 game in the seventh, and his response was back-to-back strikeouts on seven pitches.
Moore threw 21 first pitch strikes to 29 batters faced. He’s got a very, very high floor as a rotation piece.
And then there’s Casan Evans. Once again, Evans wasn’t bad, not by a long stretch. He worked into the sixth innings, struck out 10, only allowed one extra-base hit. All of that is very good. However, he walked three, two of which were leadoff hitters that came around to score, and threw four wild pitches. It’s just not as consistently sharp as some LSU aces of the past, and that’s the standard at LSU and in the SEC.
This version of Evans is good enough to keep LSU in games and get some outs. It’s probably not going to stare down Jonathan Gray and Oklahoma like Aaron Nola did in 2013 or throw a complete game shutout in the national final like Kade Anderson nine months ago or strike out 17 like Ty Floyd against Florida in 2023.
All of those games were in June, though. Evans hasn’t thrown a pitch in March. I love the 10 strikeouts and the way he was working his change up at the end of his outing. One more chance to take the step Schmidt did this week.
DEPTH DOUBTS
Now, I’ll get to some concerns I have from the week that I feel could really linger for this team.
One, LSU is not playing good defense. Dardar booted two routine ground balls on Friday. John Pearson got a shot at first base on Monday and made a costly error. Jack Ruckert has been brought in to play defense. He kicked one Monday. Jake Brown has made a throwing error in back-to-back midweek games.
Johnson was moving Milam to second base against left-handed hitters on Saturday to hide Brayden Simpson, his starting second baseman, at third base against lefties. While I admire the attention to detail and willingness to do something non-traditional, I don’t buy that it’s purely progressive thinking. You’ve got a significant problem you’re trying to hide. That’s not comforting.
Also, Cowan is running out of rope. He’s just getting tattooed. His season-long stat line is 4 IP, 12 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 2 HR, 2 2B, 2 BB, 8 K. LSU simply doesn’t win the title without Cowan last year. He was absolute nails for about 11 weeks. He stumbled a little bit late but rallied for a phenomenal effort against Arkansas in Omaha. Because of Cowan, LSU got to play the postseason at home and got to save Anderson for Coastal as opposed to bringing him back in an elimination game against Arkansas.
But he’s getting lit up. He tried the breaking ball Monday night. It hung and got hit out by a guy hitting under .100. Right now, he’s got to be a very low leverage arm that is probably used in short spurts.
Beyond Cowan, LSU’s lefties need to step up a little bit.
Cooper Williams was awesome on opening weekend and has just been okay since. LSU didn’t go to Ethan Plog, Santiago Garcia or Danny Lachenmayer over the weekend. They didn’t need to. But none of the four has truly excelled early on, and the Tigers will need that to create the depth that is supposed to make this staff special.
CLOSING TIME
Depth is the only question mark right now, because the top end arms are dominating.
Gavin Guidry: 9 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 16 K
Deven Sheerin: 6.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 13 K
Mavrick Rizy: 6.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 6 BB, 8 K
Other than Rizy’s walk total, that is eye-popping stuff. Four hits in 22 innings. Thirty-seven strikeouts and one earned run. These are the guys LSU’s is going to lean on right now, and they’re throwing the ball great.
LSU was able to close three tight games over the weekend with three different arms. That means Johnson can feel free to burn a bullpen bullet for the weekend on Friday knowing there are a couple of more in the chamber.
I loved the emotion all three pitched with over the weekend. Even the mild-mannered Rizy was pumping his fist and blowing off some steam. You need to pitch with that kind of energy late in games.
FINAL THOUGHTS
I thought Johnson’s postgame comments on Monday were interesting. He spoke about players being concerned with batting average and playing with mental toughness.
Right now, LSU’s position players are pressing. Wednesday to Sunday is going to be very important for the psyche of the team. A rough weekend is pretty easy to wave off if you bounce back. A bad two-week stretch headed into conference play will weigh heavier.
I can contextualize an 11-2 team that won three-of-four this weekend while the pitching staff dominated for three days and a rising star shined on Sunday with the fact that the offense is in a rut and the defense could be a huge concern. All of that can be true at once.
I’d rather the offense struggle for this stretch, as opposed to the starting rotation, because I have a track record to fall back on with offense. If Evans, Moore and Schmidt throw the ball very well, LSU will be fine. Second base defense and the back half of LSU’s pitching staff aren’t going to doom a season.
It’s so, so early. The swings in emotion and the formation of the team that leads the charge in June are always my favorite parts of the baseball season. This is just the first valley. More of them are coming, and there will be plenty of peaks, as well.
On to Lafayette Wednesday night.
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