By Chris Marler and Jacob Hester
It’s the first day of March Madness. By now you should have snacks in the pantry, beer on ice and an air tight excuse to miss work.
Almost as exciting as the 32 games over the next two days, Jacob Hester and I are back for a second straight year handing out our favorite picks and best bets to help you make some money if your bracket busts.
Jake’s Best Bets
- Ohio State -2.5
- McNeese +11.5
- VCU +2.5
- Texas A&M ML +136
Jake’s Takes
Ohio State is the more physical defensive team and that matters in an 8/9 game where things tighten up late. TCU can score but they get inconsistent when the game turns into a grind. OSU controls tempo, makes it ugly and wins late. Buckeyes by six to 10.
McNeese is legit, disciplined and they do not beat themselves. Bill Armstrong’s group has carried over that same physical identity and they can absolutely hang in this matchup. Vanderbilt struggles when teams punch back physically. It’s going to be a tight, half court game.
This is a nightmare matchup for UNC. VCU’s pressure and tempo disruption can completely rattle them. Turnovers will be a key factor and if VCU speeds this game up UNC is in trouble.
Texas A&M vs Saint Mary’s is a classic contrast game. Saint Mary’s is slow and methodical, while the Aggies are aggressive and physical. In March, I lean towards athletes and offensive rebounding. I think A&M creates extra possessions and steals it late.
Marler’s Best Bets
- Georgia ML – Lock of the Day
- Ohio State ML
- South Florida +5.5
- Texas A&M Over 71.5 points
- Purdue -25.5
- BYU ML
Marler’s Takes
Let’s start with Georgia. The Bulldogs are ranked in the top three nationally in points per game and finished the season with 22 wins. They closed the season strong despite their first round exit in the SEC Tournament. They’ll be playing a St. Louis team that is closing the year in the opposite trajectory and direction. St. Louis started the year 24-1, but went 4-4 in their final eight games of the year.
Since Feb. 17, Torvik rankings show a 123 spot gap between the teams, with Georgia at No. 26 and St. Louis at No. 149. It’s the second-largest disparity among non-top three seeds, and St. Louis ranks as the third lowest team in the opening round.
If that doesn’t convince you, then just know that the lock of the week is 10-3 on the season, and this is the first lock of the week of the tournament.
Ohio State money line is another one that I love on Thursday. It helps that Jake also picked it, which gave me a little boost in confidence.
Another reason why is that according to Evan Miya, one of the premiere college basketball metric analysts in the country, Ohio State’s odds to advance past the first round is 64.4 percent. That’s the highest percentage chance of any No. 8 seed in the tournament with the next closest being Georgia at over 52 percent. Take the Buckeyes.
Also I love Texas A&M Over 71.5 points. The Aggies averaged over 87.7 ppg this season which ranks 11th in the country. They’ve scored less than 72 points just five times all season. Getting their total at a number that’s 16 points less than their season average feels like a gift.
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