By Chris Marler and Jacob Hester
Another day and another winning day for the picks. After a 6-3 day on Friday, the fellas went 4-3 on Saturday.
Jake’s Bets
Tennessee +7.5
Tennessee/Michigan Under 146.5 (Best Bet)
UConn +5.5
Jake’s Takes
I like Tennessee against Michigan because 7.5 is a big number for an Elite 8 game between two physical teams. Tennessee’s defense travels. They can muddy this game up and hang around. Michigan is elite, but not always a blowout team against teams that can grind. The Vols will force half-court possessions and it feels like a possession-by-possession game late.
As for UConn and Duke, the Huskies as a dog in March? That’s value. They’ve got size and toughness to match Duke, and this feels like a coin flip type game, not a two possession spread.
Marler’s Bets
Michigan -7.5
Michigan Over 76.5 points
UConn +5.5
JP Estrella Over 9.5 Points
Yaxel Lendeborg Over 2.5 assists
Marler’s Takes
I don’t know what the reason is behind this, but I have been pretty awful on Thursday/Saturday games in comparison to Friday/Sunday games. On Thursday/Saturday games, I’ve gone a woeful 7-13. On the Friday/Sunday games I am 13-6 in the tournament including 4-1 in Friday’s Sweet 16 games.
Good news, it’s Sunday.
I’ll keep it simple. Michigan is a wagon, and I don’t think anyone is going to get in their way including a No. 6 Seed that has not made a Final Four in program history. Tennessee’s defense is really good, and if you’re looking for a similar matchup result the team total for Michigan is one of them. Michigan and Alabama’s scoring numbers are very comparable. Alabama has never scored more than 78 points against Tennessee under Nate Oats, so I get the reasoning to have their team total so low. Michigan was held under 77 points in six of their last eight regular season games, but they’ve scored at least 90 points or more in all three tournament games averaging 95.7 ppg in those three games.
Lendeborg over 1.5 threes in the Sweet 16 game against Alabama proved to be free money. He covered that in the first half and ended with four in the game. I don’t expect him to have his way as easily with Tennessee’s defense, but he has recorded over 2.5 assists in nine of his last 12 games. Take that.
Finally, I hate Duke almost as much as Dan Hurley hates referees. I have a feeling he’s going to hate them a lot today because the Duke Whistle is a very real thing even if they won’t admit it. If I wanted to hear a bunch of privileged preppies pretend they weren’t privileged I’d go to one of the national conventions in an election year. Through three tournament games, Duke has attempted 44 more free throw attempts than their opponents (68 to 24). I need UConn to stop Duke like I need air to breathe. We all do.
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