Death, taxes, and Texas being projected to win a title despite only having done so one time in the last 55 years. It’s that time of year again where we put aside a long track record of coming up short from the Longhorns and they transition seamlessly into the media darlings they’ve always been. Here’s the thing though, this year it’s actually deserved, and that’s a scary thought.
The schedule is absolutely brutal, but Texas’ roster is absolutely loaded. Here’s our season prediction for every game.
Strength of Schedule: No. 1 in the SEC, No. 1 in College Football
It will be a tough road this year for Steve Sarkisian and the $40 million roster. They get Ohio State at home in week two. They don’t have an FCS opponent, and they only get four conference games at home. Granted, they do get three of those four in consecutive weeks, but road trips to Tennessee, LSU, and Texas A&M are incredibly difficult. That doesn’t even include the other two conference games against programs that were in the CFP a season ago (Ole Miss and Oklahoma). Texas could play eight preseason ranked teams this season. It’s not only the toughest schedule in the conference, but it’s the toughest schedule in America.
It’s the sixth hardest schedule in the SEC as we illustrated in our previous article on the toughest schedules in the SEC.
Biggest Game of the Year: Ohio State
The Oklahoma game is the most important game of the year, period. But, the biggest game of the year for the psyche of Texas Longhorn football is that week two showdown against Ohio State. Those two met a season ago in a game that was so boring it made C-Span look like the UFC. This year they meet in Austin and will once again both be top five teams.
What’s riding on this game cannot be overstated. Week two is a monumental day for the SEC. Mississippi State travels to Minnesota, Georgia Tech hosts Tennessee, and Texas A&M plays Arizona State. Arkansas and Missouri also travel to Utah and Kansas respectively. But, the biggest bragging rights for the league will take place in Ann Arbor and Austin as Oklahoma-Michigan and Texas-Ohio State will play in two marquee games.
New defensive coordinator Will Muschamp will have his work cut out for him against an Ohio State team that has weapons everywhere on offense despite being held to just 14 points against Texas a season ago.
Biggest Trap Game: Ole Miss or at Missouri
This one is tough because Ole Miss has a much better chance at beating this Texas team, and it should also be one of the most fun games of the year. The two best quarterbacks in the SEC facing off under the lights in Austin with more Mannings than that Passing Academy in Thibodeaux. However, that one is in the middle of a three game homestand, and something tells me they won’t be overlooking Ole Miss because of Mississippi State looming the following week.
A road trip to Missouri is an equally perfect pick for a trap game. The Longhorns should have no more than one or two losses at that point of the season. It’s also their first true road game since the week four game at Tennessee. That’s five straight weeks without being in a true road environment in a notoriously sleepy stadium that consistently seems to not get the best from opponents visiting there. If that wasn’t concerning enough, the Longhorns travel to Baton Rouge the next week to play in what I think will be the biggest game of the entire SEC season against LSU.
Upset Alert: at Tennessee
A trip to Knoxville is never easy. The Vols are 23-4 at home in the last four seasons under Josh Heupel, and those offensive formations and wide receiver splits can give defenses fits. Texas looked awful in true road games a season ago. The Longhorns went just 2-3 in true road games during the regular season with their lone wins coming against two five-win teams, Kentucky and Mississippi State. One of those was by three points (Kentucky) and the other needed a 17 point comeback to win (Mississippi State).
Tennessee will be looking to make a statement that day in Knoxville. It’s a sleepy noon kickoff for both teams, but that shouldn’t keep Neyland from being as unhinged as always.
Ceiling and Floor: 12-0 and 8-4
The schedule is a nightmare, and that’s putting it mildly. But, this team is good enough to get through every game unscathed if they can stay focused. The 2025 version of Arch Manning is not the 2026 version of Arch Manning. This season is deserving of the preseason hype and praise, and the biggest difference between last year and this year is that there’s no Georgia on the schedule and most of the toughest games are at home.
There are potential problems potholed throughout the year. Ohio State and a road trip to Knoxville in September aren’t gimmes. But, they only have four true road games all year which is huge. They play four CFP teams from a season ago, but they don’t play any of them in back-to-back weeks. In fact, the week before each of those teams they play just one team who had a winning record a season ago and another that includes a bye week.
Texas is built to win and win a lot this season, and again, avoiding Georgia in the regular season is unbelievably important considering the Dawgs own them in almost every sport they meet in. They’ll meet in Atlanta in a matchup of undefeated teams in early December, and Texas will finally have their best chance to get over the hump. Something tells me Cam Coleman, Colin Simmons, and several other high profile portal additions, not to mention one of the best offensive lines in the nation, will make a much different season than the disappointing one in 2025.
Schedule Prediction: 12-0
I know, I know. I hate the prediction too, but nevertheless here we are.
Texas State – W
Ohio State – W
UTSA – W
At Tennessee – W
Oklahoma – W
Florida – W
Ole Miss – W
Mississippi State – W
At Missouri – W
At LSU – W
Arkansas – W
At Texas A&M – W
