The opening game of the NFL season also brings mystery. Teams face off with a lot of continuity in most cases, but always some changes. In this matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Detroit Lions, the changes made by each team over the offseason will be a key headline.
New Orleans has built out its offense with some key changes having taken place on defense, though that side of the ball has remained mostly consistent. Detroit is already dealing with a host of injuries to open the season, down its starting center Cade Mays and safety tandem Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch. Whether or not this opens a door for an also-injured Saints team could end up being the deciding factor in this game.
Ahead of the 12:00 p.m. CT kickoff, here is a quick look at how both teams finished last season and what it could say about the clubs headed into their 2026 debut.
Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense (Points Per Game)
Saints Offense – No. 28 (18.0) | Lions Defense – No. 22 (24.3)
Lions Offense – T-No. 4 (28.3) | Saints Defense – No. 16 (22.5)
The Saints’ defense will be the key to this matchup. If the unit can slow down the Lions’ offense, which scored at a high clip last season.
Detroit’s explosive pass game was a big factor last season, led by star wideouts Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. But it was all set up by the rushing attack of backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. With the latter now in Houston, Gibbs will lead the way.
Limiting the Lions’ rushing attack will be top priority for the Saints.
Point Differential
Saints – minus-77 (No. 24) | Lions – plus-68 (No. 8)
Last year, the Saints were outscored on their way to a six-win season, while the Lions played themselves into nine victories in a stacked NFC North division.
The biggest contributor to the Saints’ low ranking here came from first-half scoring, where New Orleans saw the NFL’s second-worst point differential of minus-121. Starting off fast is a must for head coach Kellen Moore and the Saints.
Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense (Yards Per Game)
Saints Offense – No. 13 | Lions Defense – No. 20
Lions Offense – No. 3 | Saints Defense – No. 4
Many think of the Lions as a run-first team, which they are. But it’s what the run game sets up that allows for their high-scoring ability. This will be a matchup of good-on-good from a momentum standpoint. The Lions’ passing offense finished as one of the best in the NFL, while the Saints’ passing defense did the same.
Which side carries over its success from 2025 could help lift their team to victory.
The matchup to watch here will be St. Brown in the slot (where he reeled in more than 70% of his receptions last year) against the Saints’ newly-minted STAR defender Jonas Sanker. The second-year safety will face an immediate test at his new position.
Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense (Yards Per Game)
Saints Offense – No. 28 | Lions Defense – No. 14
Lions Offense – No. 14 | Saints Defense – No. 19
The Lions’ rushing offense will be interesting to watch this year as the team searches for a complement for Gibbs or awaits to see his ability as a bellcow back.
Meanwhile, New Orleans has revamped both its rushing offense and defense. The best-case scenario for New Orleans is for prized free agent acquisition and running back Travis Etienne Jr. to have a big day on the ground.
That would set up New Orleans to be able to control the game and take pressure off of second-year quarterback Tyler Shough.
Turnover Differential
Saints – minus-4 (No. 22) | Lions – plus-4 (T-No. 9)
The Saints’ biggest assets here will be Shough, who has proven to take care of the football well during his rookie season, and returning safety Julian Blackmon. The safety’s season ended after the first game of the season last year, maximizing his contributions and availability in 2026 will be crucial.
Third Down Conversion Rate
Saints Offense – 39.5% (No. 18) | Lions Defense – 36.9% (No. 9)
Lions Offense – 38.8% (No. 20) | Saints Defense – 34.3% (No. 3)
Shough was one of the best third-down quarterbacks in the NFL last year. As the starter coming into the season this time around, the team’s potential to improve in this area on offense is high.
Meanwhile, New Orleans brings one of the top third-down defenses from 2025 into the new season.
Pressure Rate Allowed vs. Generated
Saints Offense – 35.2% (No. 11) | Lions Defense – 36.8% (No. 16)
Lions Offense – 36.2% (No. 17) | Saints Defense – 36.2% (No. 22)
While New Orleans didn’t reach the top-half of the NFL in pressure generation last year, the defense still piled up 47 sacks. Based on the offseason performances seen by edge rushers Chase Young and Carl Granderson, the hopes are high on Airline Drive that the two can combine as a fearsome pass rusher duo in 2026.
The Saints’ were nearly top-10 in keeping their quarterback clean from a pressure perspective, but Shough saw an average of more than three sacks per game through his nine starts last year.
Keeping him clean against Detroit’s top pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson and the interior push of a talented defensive line will be imperative.
