Last week, the winner of the Ole Miss-LSU game moved into prime position. The loser just needed to rebound.
This week, the loser’s situation becomes dire.
LSU and Texas A&M meet as 2-1 football teams at 6:30 p.m. Saturday night in Tiger Stadium. The loser’s margin for error will be gone, and flaws should reveal themselves to be too deep to recover.
The winner creates some momentum entering October and still has a mulligan left in its College Football Playoff path.
A&M has handled LSU over the last two seasons. The Aggies cleared out Tiger Stadium save the few thousand swaying A&M fans in the final moments of Brian Kelly’s LSU career.
The revenge angle doesn’t play like it used to in college football. There will be more than 50 new LSU players on the home sideline that didn’t experience last season’s embarrassment.
LSU fans did, and they’ll show up. What should they be watching?
BLAKE BAKER VS. MARCEL REED
I’m not going to bury the lead. Reed and A&M’s ground game led a 31-6 second half slaughter of LSU in 2024. Last season, he threw for 202 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 108 more and two more scores.
He’s torched LSU.
Last season, Reed didn’t run for multiple scores against another opponent, and after his stellar ground showing against the Tigers in 2024, he threw six interceptions and was sacked 10 times over the final five games.
A&M went 1-4 with the only win coming against New Mexico State.
Reed is talented. He’s fast and takes smooth strides. He’s got a good arm. Since he’s been a starter at A&M, Reed’s also played better against LSU than any other opponent.
Baker’s defenses have had issues with mobile quarterbacks. Alabama’s Jalen Milroe ran for 185 yards and four touchdowns in 2024 two weeks after Reed ran wild. Diego Pavia of Vanderbilt ran for 86 yards and two touchdowns last year, and Reed followed that with more production.
There have been bright spots. Pavia did nothing in 2024. Taylen Green of Arkansas only got loose once last year. LaNorris Sellers of South Carolina gained 19 yards on 22 carries in Tiger Stadium.
Baker’s mission on Saturday is to turn Reed into a thrower. He’s got the lowest completion percentage (59.6%) in the SEC among qualified starters, and has thrown 22 career interceptions, including three in the last two weeks.
CHARLIE WEIS JR. VS. THE STICKS
A&M is struggling to find strengths right now, but one is always there under Mike Elko — third down defense.
The Aggie head coach is a mastermind with pressure packages on third downs. He shows exotic looks and confuses front and quarterbacks. He’s usually got the horses up front to make it extremely difficult.
While Texas A&M is 37th in total defense and 39th in scoring defense, the Aggies are 7th nationally getting off the field on third downs. This comes on the heels of leading the nation in third down defense in 2025 with an offensive success rate of just 22.9%.
LSU has done a great job on third downs this year, and that’s because the Tigers have stayed in third and short.
Against Clemson, LSU converted 11-of-16 third downs (69%). That’s because the Tigers averaged 4.3 yards all game. LSU never had a third down of nine-plus yards. That’s how you keep pressure away. Stay in third-and-two situations.
The Tigers offense converts third-and-four, or less, at a 67% clip. Weis’s offense is 13th in the country in third-down conversion rate at 56%.
Running the ball on first down is paramount, and staying out of third-and-nine is just as important.
LSU’s offensive line is questionable in pass protection. Quarterback Sam Leavitt is gun-shy when blitzes come. A&M doesn’t have a ton of advantages in the game. Third- and-long is a huge one which LSU must avoid.
DJ PICKETT VS. MARIO CRAVER
If LSU’s run defense continues to dominate, the pass defense will face more pressure.
Ole Miss ran the ball 25 times for 63 yards. The Rebels still managed to hang 32 points, though, thanks to 363 passing yards and 69% completion on 11 yards per catch.
Not all of that was against PJ Woodland and DJ Pickett. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss picked on CJ Jimcoily when he went into the game for an injured DaShawn Spears.
Pickett allowed three catches in four targets for 47 yards. Woodland was targeted seven times and allowed four catches for 47 yards.
Craver is the best wide out on A&M’s roster. Former five-star Terry Bussey is out for the year, and Ashton Bethel-Roman is questionable. Craver, a Mississippi State transfer, leads the team with 19 catches for 194 yards. His two touchdowns are one short of Isaiah Horton who is also a talented receiving option on the other side.
The Tigers are stopping the run and rushing the passer. They lead the nation in both statistics. Now the coverage unit needs to step up. That will be the task on Saturday.
