Welcome back to another edition of Winning & Boozing. It’s the only weekly article that gives you previews, picks and, most importantly, the booze of choice you’ll need at your SEC tailgate this Saturday. Cheers to Week 7!
Mississippi State at LSU
Mississippi State is ranked six spots higher than LSU, yet they are a two-touchdown underdog. This game comes down to two things. One, how healthy is quarterback Kamario Taylor and his legs? And two, how effective will Mississippi State be in the run game?
This offense of head coach Jeff Lebby is predicated off the run, and without it, they are completely one dimensional. That works against teams like Minnesota, but we also saw what that can look like against a better defense like Alabama. If Fluff Bothwell is also too banged up to go expect LSU to pin its ears back and come after Taylor all day. They’re second in the league in sacks, and if Taylor can’t run he’ll be a sitting duck.
The defense for State has struggled this year, and the best bet is LSU over 34.5 points.
The Winning
LSU 38, Mississippi State 23
The Boozing
This week we went to our esteemed colleague, and Mississippi State grad, Rivers Hughey for the cocktail of choice. She kept it short and sweet.
“I think Bloody Mary for State. It’s 11 in the morning, everyone is hurt, LSU has a Kentucky hangover, Mississippi State just needs the vodka.”
Florida at Texas
I fully expect Florida head coach Jon Sumrall to tell the media this week something corny like, “I hate Texas. I hate brisket. I don’t even have a horn in my car because that’s how much I hate (long)horns.”
This is the ultimate get-right game for Texas. The Longhorns have struggled at times in the passing game and offensively, but Florida’s porous secondary should fix that. The Gators need to get the run game going again, but that’s a tall task against this Texas defense. Florida is still way ahead of schedule from where everyone thought they’d be in Year 1, and a win in Austin would be massive for them. However, this is a must win for Texas and head coach Steve Sarkisian. I expect Texas to pull away late in the second half.
The Winning
Texas 37, Florida 23
The Boozing
Modelo. Few things make me more irrationally angry than Modelo commercials. Outside of a gaggle of housewives on Bravo there are few things more dramatic than those damn commercials. The mark of a fighter? Buddy, you’re Corona with gold aluminum foil. Stop. The fake tough guy and blowhard routine from those ads fit perfectly with these two fan bases. No one thinks they’re tougher than people from Texas besides Sumrall of course.
Missouri at Ole Miss
The metrics line up nicely for Missouri, but the run game has been inconsistent. Yes, they have the SEC’s leading rusher by a lot, but they don’t distribute carries amongst an RB2. He’s sprung explosive runs late in games and racked up a ton of yardage against beaten down teams, with no chance to come back. That being said, they have way too many runs that go for less than two yards. It hasn’t exactly been a grinding novocaine-type running game, it’s been middling & then explosive.
The only QB they’ve played with a pulse was a fairly healthy Taylor, and they got beat, in a close game, on the road. Taylor beat them downfield with a trio of fast receivers, but none of which are as good as Deuce Alexander. Expect this to be a close game throughout with Ole Miss holding a slight lead late. At some point one of those turnover-worthy plays will actually result in a turnover, and I expect Ole Miss to seal the win late.
The Winning
Ole Miss 35, Missouri 27
The Boozing
Coors Banquet beer. That little yellow jacket in the pony bottle is really good. However, for some reason they’re always forgotten about. It feels like anytime I walk into a bar and see that thing it’s the first time I remembered it’s even a thing since the last time I watched an episode of Yellowstone. That’s perfect for this game since it’s really, really good yet it’s being broadcast on SEC Network despite being a top 15 matchup.
It’s also perfect because no matter how good of a job on branding or marketing Missouri ever does, no one in this conference seems to ever remember their relevance. That’s not a dig at Missouri either. It’s a dig at the ignorance from the rest of the league. The Tigers are real, and they’re going to punch Ole Miss in the mouth like Rip Wheeler. Sadly, much like the final season of the show, I think this one may lose the plot late and Ole Miss will win.
