Coming off of the bye week, the New Orleans Saints return home to the Caesars Superdome in to host the Cleveland Browns, who are a much better team so far this year than expected.
The Saints are hoping to have left their struggles behind them in Paris, France, but haven’t yet been able to avoid their pitfalls at home in the Big Easy, which has been anything but, yet this season. The Saints are currently 0-3 at home, 0-4 counting their hosting of the NFL’s first Paris game.
New Orleans’ search of its first home victory of the season and it won’t be easy to get against the Browns, though Cleveland does have some vulnerabilities the Saints hope to exploit.
Here is a look at how both teams match up across a number of key statistical categories.
Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense (Points Per Game)
Saints Offense – T-No.14 (23.1) | Browns Defense – No. 13 (21.6)
Browns Offense – No. 29 (17.4) | Saints Defense – No. 29 (27.7)
The Browns’ lack of scoring potential could work in the Saints’ favor if they can reclaim their scoring success from early on in the season. However, defense in New Orleans has taken a considerable step back this year. While edge rusher Chase Young and Carl Granderson are playing well, along with a few other players on that side of the ball, the team has not been able to limit the scoring potential of opponents.
New Orleans is continuing ahead with cornerback Martin Emerson Jr. as the starter across from top corner Kool-Aid McKinstry and the team is welcoming back linebacker Kaden Elliss for the second week. Ideally both of those situations help the Saints take a step forward as the unit gets back into rhythm.
Point Differential
Saints – minus-32 (No. 25) | Browns – minus-34 (No. 26)
It’s kind of uncanny to see this. The Saints and Browns are almost identical on the wrong side of the equation in point differential. Despite that, the Saints are 2-5 while the Browns at 5-3. The difference is that two of Cleveland’s losses have come by more than 20 points.
Last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Browns lost by 21, and the team lost by 24 to open the season against the Jacksonville Jaguars. When the Browns lose, they’ve tended to lose big.
Meanwhile, New Orleans is 2-3 in close games, while Cleveland is 5-1.
Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense (Yards Per Game)
Saints Offense – No. 13 (229.7) | Browns Defense – No. 6 (196.6)
Browns Offense – No. 22 (204.3) | Saints Defense – No. 23 (233.3)
The Saints’ streak of facing top-seven passing defenses continues for a fourth consecutive week. After facing No. 7-ranked teams in each of their last three games, the team draws a matchup with Cleveland, ranked No. 6.
Quarterback Tyler Shough could have a new weapon on the field with the slim possibility that rookie wide receiver Jordyn Tyson could make his debut. But even if he did, it’s not worth expecting a full workload for the first-year player seeing his first action.
Instead, the passing game will need to get going again to involve multiple contributors. From wide receiver Chris Olave and Devaughn Vele to tight ends Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant. The Browns won’t make it easy, but spreading the ball around (and the opportune deep shot to rookie wideout Barion Brown) could be a difference maker in this matchup.
Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense (Yards Per Game)
Saints Offense – No. 28 (86.0) | Browns Defense – No. 24 (126.9)
Browns Offense – No. 24 (97.7) | Saints Defense – No. 29 (139.4)
The Saints are hoping to see their run game bounce back after an embarrassing display against the Steelers after a season-low output (18 rushing yards) which was the worst since 1999. After firing run game coordinator T.J. Paganetti, the team should consider itself desperate to show that it was worth it, and that the move actually brings about considerable change. If not, the Saints will have a lot of questions to answer after another decision, in that case, would have gone awry.
Pittsburgh has allowed four 100-yard rushing games to teams so far this season. The club is 2-2 in those games.
Turnover Differential
Saints – minus-4 (T-No. 26) | Browns – minus-1 (T-No. 17)
There isn’t much separation at this point in the season when it comes to turnover differential in 2026. However, three more four more giveaways than takeaways so far this year for New Orleans is concerning. The team will have to take better care of the football while finding ways to take it away from the Browns.
Third Down Conversion Rate
Saints Offense – 43.4% (No. 7) | Browns Defense – 38.7% (No. 12)
Browns Offense – 32.4% (No. 30) | Saints Defense – 47.8% (No. 30)
The Saints are facing a similar matchup this week as last, facing a third-down defense that’s performed well, and a third-down offense that’s converted at a low rate. However, last week, the Steelers turned their third-down offense just in time against a struggling Saints defense in the category.
Extending drives from a plays per drive standpoint hasn’t been an issue for New Orleans, but finishing them has been.
Pressure Rate Allowed vs. Generated
Saints Offense – 35.5% (No. 14) | Browns Defense – 38.3% (No. 9)
Browns Offense – 42.4% (No. 27) | Saints Defense – 28.7% (No. 32)
Both teams face an advantage here, and it could be a massive determining factor on Sunday. The Saints haven’t generated much pressure (aside from Young and Granderson) but will face an offensive line that has surrendered quite a bit of pressure.
Meanwhile, the Saints have held up in protecting Shough, but will face a defensive line that is able to generate pressure consistently.
This might be where the game is won or lost. If Young and Granderson can have a major impact against Browns quarterbacks, the Saints are in their best position to construct an upset. Meanwhile, if New Orleans struggles to keep Shough clean, the team could quickly find itself in trouble.
