Breathe. Tell yourself it’s just for TV. Rinse repeat.
That feels like the only way to justify the initial rankings that came out on Tuesday night without losing your mind. There are a lot of takeaways, so let’s just get right to it. Here are the biggest
1. Alabama is not the No. 5 team in America
There’s not really much of an explanation needed there, but allow me to give one in the most succinct, professional and intelligent way I can.
Alabama being ranked No. 5 is absolutely stupid.
Don’t get me wrong, the resume isn’t bad. They have an SOR and SOS that both rank in the Top 8. They also have convincing wins over Kentucky and South Carolina. The committee chair Hunter Yurachek also noted that they were also given credit for their win over a then fully healthy Mississippi State team that was on the road against an undefeated team. The problem is all of those wins came in the first five weeks of the season, and Alabama has looked like a shell of that former self ever since.
Yes, the loss to Georgia was close, and maybe the Tide is 7-1 in a different world where a pass interference is called late in that game. But, glossing over what happened the very next week calls the entire committee’s credibility into question by overlooking the 16-point loss to Tennessee. Alabama got its doors blown off against the Vols. The score wasn’t remotely indicative of how much worse that loss actually was either. They were held to their lowest offensive yardage output in 11 years in Knoxville, and they followed that up with a lackluster game against a bad Texas A&M team that needed a fourth-quarter comeback to not end in a third loss for the Tide.
Yurachek noted that Tennessee did win the head-to-head and has the exact same record, yet their next quality win is a far drop off in comparison to Alabama’s. Sure. But, they beat them like a drum on the field, and if you want to dive into the semantics their two losses came against teams currently ranked in the Top 21 by a combined six points.
I mean what are we doing here?
2. The rankings from 17-20 make no sense
By no means am I a Big Ten apologist, nor do I love going to bat for Southern Cal and Iowa. That being said, both of those teams deserve to be ahead of Missouri. And, as a whole the teams ranked No. 17-20 are almost exactly backwards.
In order they go Houston, Missouri, Iowa and then Southern Cal. Keep in mind that Southern Cal is coming off a double-digit win against No. 2 Ohio State. They also have four quality wins (out of seven total on the season) against teams over .500. That’s the second most in the country. Iowa has three, Missouri has two and Houston has just one. The Trojans also have one ranked win on the season. That doesn’t seem like much, but it’s more than Iowa and Houston who have a combined zero.
There’s an argument to be made that it doesn’t matter where they’re currently ranked, and that if they win out, they’re in the CFP no matter what. That may just be wishful thinking and dismissive ignorance, though. A two-loss Southern Cal team would finish the season with 10 wins and still have two games against Top 10 teams left (Indiana and UCLA). But, no team ranked outside the Top 18 in the initial rankings has ever made the playoff.
3. Notre Dame and Ohio State are in trouble
One of the dumbest rules catered to any team in the country is the one that was initiated this year for Notre Dame. If Notre Dame finishes in the Top 12 then they automatically earn a berth into the College Football Playoff. The Irish are ranked in the Top 5 and have just one loss on their resumé at BYU. So, seeing that iconic logo pop up next to No. 11 was pretty shocking on Tuesday. However, it’s probably more than fair.
Notre Dame has a strength of record of 13 and currently has the No. 55 ranked strength of schedule. Their SOR is the lowest of any team in the Top 11 and their SOS is the third lowest amongst those same teams. They also don’t have a win over a ranked opponent and just one of their seven wins is considered to be over a quality opponent (see teams over .500). Notre Dame plays No. 1 Miami on Saturday at home. There isn’t another ranked opponent on their schedule the rest of the season. If they are unable to beat Miami, a 10-2 record is almost a certainty and we could see a two-loss Fighting Irish team be left out of the CFP for a second straight year.
Ohio State is in a similar boat. However, the Buckeyes schedule is much less forgiving, and they’ll have to do it without their starting quarterback. A three-loss Ohio State team will face the same judgment day that Texas did a season ago, and likely be headed to a bowl game named after an 11-year-old’s favorite snack instead of the 12-team playoff.
The Top 25
25. Boise State 7-1
24. Florida 5-3
23. Oregon 5-3
22. Arizona 6-2
21. South Carolina 5-3
20. USC 7-2
19. Iowa 6-2
18. Missouri 6-2
17. Houston 6-2
16. Wake Forest 7-1
15. Texas Tech 7-2
14. LSU 6-2
13. Tennessee 6-2
12. Ohio State 6-2
11. Notre Dame 7-1
10. Ole Miss 6-2
9. BYU 7-1
8. UCLA 8-0
7. Texas 6-2
6. Kentucky 7-1
5. Alabama 6-2
4. Indiana 8-1
3. Utah 8-0
2. Georgia 7-1
1. Miami 8-0
Bama getting credit for beating Mississippi State.
