It’s the final week before cupcake week in the SEC, and there are a ton of moving parts that are in play this weekend. The eight-game slate features a few important themes that are related to each other. There are teams with their backs against the wall, and others that may see some of their résumé-boosting wins no longer carrying the same impact. Missouri, LSU and Ole Miss all have three losses, and their playoff hopes and Top 25 rankings are hanging by a thread.
Then there are Kentucky and Tennessee, who are facing dangerous games trying to avoid a third loss. On top of that, a top-three-ranked Alabama team heads to Vanderbilt as a three-score favorite after a massive win. Where have we seen that crash and burn before?
That’s what is at stake this weekend. Here are the picks.
The appetizers
Auburn at Mississippi State
Auburn 26, Mississippi State 24
Alabama at Vanderbilt
Alabama 33, Vanderbilt 14
South Carolina at Arkansas
South Carolina 28, Arkansas 17
Ole Miss at Oklahoma
Ole Miss 23, Oklahoma 20
The main courses
Missouri at Georgia
Georgia is in the midst of a gauntlet. No one seems to notice, though, because they are dominating teams. The challenge involves attempting to win four games against Top 25 opponents in four consecutive weeks. In the history of the SEC, only one team has been able to win four straight in such a scenario, and it was last year’s Alabama team. Those games featured three-point wins over Missouri and Georgia. That’s not the route Georgia is taking. They are bludgeoning teams halfway through the four-game stretch. They’ve outscored opponents by 54 points in the first two games with a combined score of 69-15.
What does Missouri do well enough to win this game? Well, they run the ball well, and they play surprisingly good defense. Good luck running against that Georgia defense though. Also, the scariest part of this current run for Georgia? They’re almost fully healthy. They are down to just two players being listed on their availability report, and only one of those players is out.
Georgia 34, Missouri 14
Tennessee at Texas A&M
I’ve had Tennessee as a dark horse to make the College Football Playoff since July, and there’s no reason to bail on that right now with just three games left in the regular season. I worry about the young quarterbacks Tennessee playing in a hostile road environment. I really worry about the point spread being just -2.5 in favor of Tennessee, especially considering the fact that 89% of the tickets are currently on the Vols with no movement in spite of that.
Still, Texas A&M has the worst scoring offense in the SEC against conference opponents. The Aggies are averaging just 16 points per game, and in their last four SEC games against teams not named Arkansas, they’ve scored: 6, 6, 20 and 9 points. That’s not a good sign considering they’re facing the second-best scoring defense in the SEC.
Tennessee 20, Texas A&M 17
Texas at LSU
I’m trying not to overthink this one. LSU has a ton of issues right now. At least that’s what you’re led to believe if you listen to the fans and national media. There’s valid criticism for this team. It is Nov. 12, and the Tigers do not have a single win over a ranked opponent. They also have tons of issues in the red zone to think about.
Through nine games, LSU is first in the SEC and third nationally in trips to the red zone with 49. Of those 49 trips, only 21 continued inside the 10-yard line. Once they get inside the 10-yard line, which is only 42.9% of the time they reach the 20, the struggles continue. They have 21 trips inside the 10 and have scored a touchdown on just 11 of those. That 52.3% rate ranks lowest in the SEC as well.
What’s most concerning about the red-zone inefficiencies against Texas is that there’s no guarantee they’re going to get that many chances against this Longhorns defense. Texas is allowing 4.13 yards per play this season. To put that in perspective, that is better than the historic 2021 Georgia defense that allowed 4.15 yards per play.
I say all that to also say that I just cannot envision a world where we wake up on Sunday and this LSU team is 6-4 with yet another loss to a ranked opponent.
LSU 24, Texas 23
