ESPN FPI Updated the analytics and projections to simulate the percentage odds to win for every SEC game in the Week 6 slate. Five of the six games around the league this week feature a conference game. Only Florida plays a non-conference opponent, in-state rival/little brother UCF.
Here’s how the computers think this week’s games play out.
9 Missouri @ 25 Texas A&M
FPI Prediction: Missouri 51.5%
Auburn @ 5 Georgia
FPI Prediction: Georgia 91.2%
12 Ole Miss @ South Carolina
FPI Prediction: Ole Miss 75.3%
1 Alabama @ Vanderbilt
FPI Prediction: Alabama 92.1%
4 Tennessee @ Arkansas
FPI Prediction: Tennessee 82.0%
UCF @ Florida
FPI Prediction: Florida 51.4%
Perhaps the biggest surprise on the list is the model predicting Missouri as a slight favorite to win in College Station. On paper the Top 10 team being favored makes sense. However, Vegas had Texas A&M as a -3.5 point favorite when sportsbooks released their opening lines on Sunday. The line has since slowly dropped to where it is currently with the Aggies as a -2.5 point favorite, but FPI disagreeing with Vegas is not a trend we’ve seen much this season.
The other surprise is the model suggesting Alabama at Vanderbilt is a comparable matchup to Auburn at Georgia. Sure, it’s two different games, and they are two different teams, but as often as Georgia and Alabama are compared, I did not expect the same level of comparison for Auburn and Vanderbilt against those teams. Ever.
