By Ross Jackson
NEW ORLEANS — Here are five things to know before the New Orleans Saints battle the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football.
- The Saints may have their third starting center in as many weeks.
New Orleans lost starting center Erik McCoy for an estimated 6-8 weeks in Week 3, turned to Shane Lemieux Week 4 and now in Week 5, may be starting newly-acquired center Connor McGovern. With Lemieux and starting left tackle Lucas Patrick (who has also taken center snaps for the team) also dealing with injury, the Saints may have to turn to their newest addition right away. That could cause some issues for quarterback Derek Carr in terms of cadence and chemistry. The good news for New Orleans is that McGovern has familiarity with the team’s coaching staff and run scheme.
2. Derek Carr has not had the best success against Kansas City throughout his career.
Carr is 3-14 over the course of his career against the Chiefs, 1-7 while Patrick Mahomes has been the starting quarterback in Kansas City. He is also 1-8 against the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium with the one win came against Mahomes in Kansas City during the 2020 season.
3. Turnovers could play a massive role in this game, and perhaps to the Saints’ favor.
While the Chiefs are typically not known for turning the ball over, it has been an issue for them to kickoff the 2024 season. Mahomes has thrown at least one interception in all four games so far this year and Kansas City has a minus-four turnover differential, currently tied as the third-worst in the league. The Chiefs’ turnover issues are not limited to their offense. Their defense has only generated three takeaways so far. New Orleans currently has a plus-three differential in their favor, tied for the third-best mark in the NFL. Their eight total takeaways are also tied for the third-best total.
New Orleans will have to work hard to continue this trend for Kansas City. This won’t be something that comes easily just because it has been the case in previous games this year. The Chiefs have every bit of talent they need to “get right” when it comes to turning the ball over. The Saints’ mission will be to keep the turnover bug biting and not allow the Chiefs to get over their bad habits against them.
4. The Chiefs’ and Saints’ defenses are well-matched against each team’s run scheme.
The Saints have run the most zone run attempts in the NFL so far, per Fantasy Points’ data suite with 82 attempts. The Chiefs’ defense ranks No. 7 in the league on a per carry basis against that scheme. Kansas City has allowed just 3.55 yards per carry against zone runs. They have been just as stout against man/gap run schemes limiting opposing offenses to just 3.61 yards per run.
New Orleans has been the No. 4 team in the league against man/gap run schemes, which has been Kansas City’s go-to concept in the run game. Different from zone run concepts which focus on blocking gaps and areas of the field, the man/gap schemes are more focused on bulldozing the players ahead of them. The Chiefs play a straight-ahead game in the run, while New Orleans relies more on athleticism and finesse in theirs. It will be a fun matchup to watch on both sides because of the variety of concepts, but also the (seemingly) evenly matched offensive and defensive matchups.
5. This game may end up coming down to the passing game.
Because of how well each team matches up against the specific run games across from them, this game could end up being completely decided by success through the air. It is surprising to see Kansas City’s offense toward the bottom of the league in explosive plays, but that has been the case to start in 2024. Mahomes and head coach Andy Ried have an uncharacteristically low 16 explosive plays (rushes of more than 10 yards, completions for more than 20) through four games. That is tied for the third-lowest total in the league thus far.
The key to keeping that going for New Orleans, who have given up their fair share of explosive plays on defense over the last few weeks, will be tackling at the catch point. Mahomes has the lowest average depth of target in the league by any passer with more than 12 dropbacks. Another uncharacteristic stat for the team. Per Next Gen Stats, he has also gained 64.8% of his passing yards with those gained after the catch, No. 2 in the NFL. If New Orleans can make stops at the catch, they can give themselves a fighting chance from multiple angles.
