Big Picks Energy: National Championship edition – Notre Dame vs. Ohio State

By Chris Marler

Well, I hope you have been paying attention. The SEC may not have won as much this postseason, but we sure have if you’ve been following Big Picks Energy and our best bets. The old adage is that it’s not how you start, but how you finish. We are finishing stronger than the 2007 Giants. The football ones. 

We are 14-2 over our last three installments of Big Picks Energy, including a 6-0 record on our Texas-Ohio State semifinal picks. Now we head to my hometown and take on the National Championship. Let’s make some money so we can make it rain at Clermont Lounge Monday night. If you know, you know. 

Ohio State to score 1st -175 – LOCK OF THE WEEK 

Ohio State has scored first in nine of their last 12 games. I think Notre Dame has an elite defense, but I absolutely love this Ohio State offense on script. Ryan Day and Chip Kelly have been awesome, especially in the postseason. 

Ohio State -3.5 1st Half 

Ohio State has trailed at halftime only once all season—and that was by a single point, 22-21, at Oregon in October. The Buckeyes have outscored opponents by an average of 12.7 points per game in the first half and have allowed more than 10 points in the first 30 minutes just once all year. The money line for Ohio State in the first half is a little steep at -250, but it’s worthy of absolutely hammering in my opinion. 

Notre Dame under 20.5 points 

This 2024 Ohio State defense is an absolutely elite unit. I was hoping the Notre Dame point total from Vegas would be a little higher, but I feel comfortable at anything under 20 all the way down to 17 for the Irish. Think of what it took for them to score 23 and 27 against Georgia and Penn State. They needed multiple turnovers, including one inside the fifteen and a kickoff return for a touchdown against Georgia. They needed a Penn State defensive back to slip and fall, along with one of the most questionable throws resulting in an interception I’ve ever seen, to score the final 10 of their 27 points against Penn State.

Ohio State has allowed more than 17 points only twice all season, both times to Oregon—one of which included a garbage-time touchdown.

Will Howard Over .5 Interceptions Thrown

Will Howard has been absolutely awesome this postseason, but I am going to play the numbers here. Notre Dame has forced the fifth most interceptions thrown in the country this season with 19, including four in their last four games. For as great as he’s been, Will Howard has also thrown five interceptions in his last five games, including at least one in four of last five games. 

Ohio State -2.5 1st Quarter 

Ohio State has outscored their last four opponents 45-0 in the first quarter. Notre Dame hasn’t scored in the first quarter in either of their last two College Football Playoff games. Those games were against Georgia and Penn State, who have great defenses. This Ohio State defense is elite, though. 

I’ve stayed away from a lot of first quarter bets over the last few years, ever since they changed the clock rules. However, here’s my take—I think Ohio State will score at least three points in their first two drives and I don’t know if Notre Dame will score much at all in this game, especially early where we’ve seen them score zero first quarter points in each of their last two games. 

TreVeyon Henderson over 19.5 yds receiving OR longest reception over 11.5 yards

Henderson has recorded 20 yards or more receiving in each of Ohio State’s last four games. In those games he has averaged 2.5 receptions and 43.5 yards receiving. We saw last week how good Notre Dame’s secondary can be and how difficult they can make life for receivers, as they didn’t allow a single reception from a Penn State receiver all game. I don’t expect that level of dominance against Ohio State, but I do think the Buckeyes will look to get Henderson involved in the passing game against a really good, and aggressive, defense.