By Hunt Palmer
After four weeks of non-conference baseball, the lights turn up a notch for the next 10.
SEC action begins Friday, and LSU draws what appears to be the most favorable matchup in the league. Missouri arrives in Baton Rouge at just 8-8 on the season having lost two of three in Puerto Rico (Ls: Penn State and Stetson, W: UCONN) and having split four-game weekends with Evansville and Binghamton.
If those sound like rough weekends for an SEC club, the Jackie Robinson Classic was worse. Just a day after eking by Florida A&M 6-5, Missouri was blasted by Alabama State 10-2. For reference, Florida A&M is 6-9 and was beaten by Southern, 17-1, the day after its narrow loss to Missouri. Alabama State is 7-11 and hasn’t won a weekend outside of the Jackie Robinson Classic.
Missouri is dead last in the SEC in fielding percentage, hits allowed and doubles allowed. That’s on the defensive side. Offensively, Missouri is 11th in batting average, 14th in home runs, 14th in doubles and 1st in sacrifice bunts.
In summation, through a month Missouri doesn’t hit well, pitch well, defend well or win.
As you’re reading along, you may think, “oh, well this is going to be a sweep.” Keep in mind, LSU didn’t sweep Omaha. Baseball can be that way.
What this is for LSU is a favorable opener. The Tigers have every advantage on Missouri. Talent, current form, home field. All of it.
If LSU throws the ball over the plate, makes routine plays and plays its brand of baseball offensively, LSU will win all three games. In the Tigers’ lone loss this season, LSU popped up 17 times and hit two batters in front of a three-run homer. That’s a quality recipe for a loss.
SLEW OF SOUTHPAWS
Missouri is coming at LSU with a trifecta of left-handed starting pitchers this weekend.
FRI: Ian Lohse, 6’0”, 185, LHP, Grad. 19.1IP, 20H, 13R, 11ER, 4BB, 26K, 5.12 ERA
SAT: Wil Libbert, 6’1”, 205, LHP, rFr, 13.1IP, 12H, 8R, 8ER, 9BB, 12K, 5.40ERA
SUN: Kadden Drew, 6’2”, 210, LHP, Jr., 21IP, 20H, 8R, 8ER, 7BB, 15K, 3.43ERA
Lohse started Game 3 of the series last year and threw three shutout, one-hit innings against the Tigers. He’s a pitchability lefty with a good changeup. Binghamton got after him for five earned runs last week in 5.1 innings.
Libbert has given up 21 baserunners in 13.1 innings against bad teams.
Drew’s best outing was six shutout innings against Southern.
None of these guys have SEC weekend stuff. LSU saw better arms against Nebraska and Kansas State.
The question becomes, what do you do with Josh Pearson, Ethan Frey and Jake Brown? Pearson is white hot. Brown is hitting .391 on the year. Frey crushes left-handed pitching. One probably has to sit to begin every game.
And does left-handed hitting Tanner Reaves start all three games versus left-handed pitching? We’ll see.
CATCHING CONCERNS
I’d expect Luis Hernandez to start all three games this weekend. Missouri’s style of play dictates that.
The Tigers rank fourth in the SEC in stolen bases and first in sacrifice bunts. When runners get on base, they move. That puts a lot of pressure on catching defense. Hernandez has clearly been that option thus far.
Kaden Peer is one to watch here. He leads Missouri in walks and steals.
Free bases are an absolute no-no this weekend. No reason to help Missouri which probably can’t help itself.
LSU has to be ready for small ball if and when their visitors from way up north get men on base early in innings.
EARLY INNINGS
Confidence is a hell of a thing.
LSU’s starting pitching can remove that from Missouri with really good early innings. Missouri’s players know they didn’t exactly handle business in the non-conference, and they know that LSU is a huge step up in class.
An early LSU lead could overwhelm an overmatched team. On the flip side, some early confidence could spur Missouri on.
Anthony Eyanson has been bad out of the gate the last two weeks. He needs to flip that switch earlier this weekend.
If LSU can control the early innings, it stands to reason they’ll control the three games and have a successful first weekend.
