By Hunt Palmer
May is upon us, and Selection Monday is in just over three weeks. The 56-game college baseball season is a beauty pageant, and the perception of at the end dictates your path to Omaha.
After 46 of 56 games, LSU has positioned itself well, but there are a couple of concerns. Of course, all concerns can be handled by winning games down the stretch.
This exercise is designed to get a feel for how LSU currently stands with the understanding that everything is fluid. The RPI is a huge tool for the committee, and it can be volatile. LSU also has no control over its competitors for a top eight seed. Those competitors’ wins and losses change things daily.
We’ll take a current look at many of the metrics the selection committee considers here to bring LSU’s resume’ into focus.
RECORD AND SCHEDULE STRENGTH
LSU is 37-9 currently. Only Texas has more wins in all of college baseball. The Tigers have only dropped two non-conference games all year, the Saturday game to Omaha and that stinker last week against Northwestern State.
That’s the good news.
The bad news is that LSU’s non-conference strength of schedule stinks. It is No. 219. Tennessee (No. 233) and West Virginia (No. 243) are a little bit worse, but everyone else in consideration for a top eight national seed has a better non-conference strength of schedule.
Overall, LSU’s No. 28 strength of schedule is good, not great. It’s a shade better than Tennessee (No. 37), Arkansas (No. 39) and Alabama (No. 35). But it’s hardly a huge feather in LSU’s cap.
Georgia (No. 4), Vanderbilt (No. 3) and Auburn (No. 1) have an edge on LSU in that column.
It’s not totally LSU’s fault. Two teams bailed on the Tigers prior to the season, so Jay Johnson was scrambling to try to fill the schedule.
The last point here is road record. LSU is just 5-5. That’s not awful, but it’s a small sample that certainly won’t be a benefit to the Tigers unless they can take care of business at Texas A&M and at South Carolina. That starts Friday.
RPI
This is a big one. Traditionally the committee leans very heavily on the RPI. And it’s volatile. LSU moved up four spots to No. 5 on Wednesday after beating Southeastern, and it had almost nothing to do with that win.
I can’t pinpoint the exact reason for the jump, but I can tell you that North Dakota State moved up 11 spots and Omaha moved up 17 spots at the same time. The formula considers your wins and losses, your opponents’ wins and losses, and your opponents’ opponents’ wins and losses.
That’s a ton of games to consider nightly. North Dakota State and Omaha aren’t impacting LSU’s RPI five spots per day, but those numbers change a ton day-to-day which can create unexpected jumps and falls.
What matters right now is that LSU is No. 5 with three road games coming up this weekend. If LSU can stay afloat in College Station, the RPI will remain healthy.
No. 5 is a great spot to be at this point.
QUADRANT 1 WINS
The quadrant system looks more complicated than it is. Here’s a key.
Quadrant 1 (Q1)
Home (1-25)
Neutral (1-40)
Away (1-60)
Quadrant 2 (Q2)
Home (26-50)
Neutral (41-80)
Away (61-120)
Quadrant 3 (Q3)
Home (51-100)
Neutral (81-160)
Away (121-240)
Quadrant 4 (Q4)
Home (101-307)
Neutral (161-307)
Away (241-307)
Quadrant 1 is generally weighed more heavily than the others. Right now, LSU is 9-7 against Quad 1. At this point that is very comparable with everyone jockeying for a top eight seed other than Texas at 14-3. most teams are a game or two over .500.
LSU’s remaining schedule allows for plenty of opportunity. Texas A&M is No. 38. These three games will be Quad 1. Arkansas is No. 6. That weekend is assured of being three Quad 1 games. South Carolina is No. 51, so right now those are Quad 1, as well. As long as the Gamecocks can win a game or two against Florida and at Auburn, they’ll stay in Quad 1 for LSU.
That series in Columbia at the end of the season looms as a huge potential resume booster against a poor team.
OVERALL THOUGHTS
LSU is in great shape.
The Tigers have as many wins as anyone other than Texas and are in second in far and away the best league in the country. The RPI is very strong, and LSU is playing very good baseball.
If LSU can win three of the next six (at Texas A&M and vs. Arkansas), the Tigers will have a top five RPI and a conference record of 17-10 headed to South Carolina. That’s the treading water point. If LSU can win both series or win four including a sweep, a top eight seed would almost be on ice barring a total no-show in Columbia the final weekend. Drops four or five of the next six, and things can get dicey. Lastly, don’t even think about losing to RPI No. 281 Grambling on Tuesday.
Things can always change.
The Tigers need to be aware of Georgia, Vanderbilt and Auburn because those teams have RPIs in the top four and far better strengths of schedule despite LSU holding an advantage in the conference standings. Plus, Auburn swept LSU.
That said, I believe LSU has a better team than those three, and I think they’ll all lose some games moving forward.
Vanderbilt still goes to Knoxville. So does Auburn who also has to go to Ole Miss. Georgia gets Missouri on the road this week, but they have to go to Tuscaloosa and play Texas A&M in Athens to finish the year.
While all of these variables are worth watching, it’s more about what LSU does. At this point, the Tigers don’t need help.
What did Al Davis say? Just win, baby.
