By Hunt Palmer
One weekend remains in regular season play. At this point it’s more likely LSU get the No. 1 overall seed than falls out of the top eight.
Either is still very much in play.
South Carolina has imploded down the stretch, losing nine of its last 10 league games and watching its RPI tumble to 71. Three losses to that team in the season finale would be catastrophic for LSU. In the same breath, it’s an extremely winnable series for the Tigers in what will almost assuredly be a sterile environment in the Palmetto State.
If the Tigers can take 2-of-3, all signs at this juncture point to a top eight seed.
Here’s a list of the potential top eights and what the resumes say. It’s easy to discern why LSU is in a position of strength in mid-May.
TOP EIGHT LOCK
Texas: Overall 40-10, SEC 20-7, RPI 4, SOS 13, Q1 15-9
The Longhorns have lost their last two SEC series and have a triop to Oklahoma coming. Even if they’re swept, Texas would finish 20-10 in SEC play with a sweep of RPI 1 Georgia, sweep of RPI 2 Georgia and series win over RPI 7 LSU. The Horns are leaking oil and won’t be a trendy postseason pick. But they’re a top eight.
SEC CLUSTER
Arkansas: Overall 41-11, SEC 18-9, RPI 5, SOS 19, Q1 12-8
Yes, the Hogs have lost four of five series. Everything else about the resume screams top eight. The reason Arkansas is not a lock just yet is that begin swept at home by Tennessee and losing five of six SEC series would be a black eye. Just one win at home against the Vols will still be stumbling to the finish line, but probably enough with 13 Q1 wins and 19 wins in the SEC including a sweep of Texas and a sweep of Vanderbilt, both RPI top fives.
Auburn: Overall 37-15, SEC 16-11, RPI 2, SOS 1, Q1 14-10
The only blemish for Auburn is the SEC record which won’t get to 20 and won’t even get to 19 without a sweep of Ole Miss in Oxford. If Auburn does that, they’ll be a top eight lock with the country’s best strength of schedule and probably the most quadrant one wins. Texas and Vanderbilt are currently the only teams with more. Auburn is a likely top eight for me.
Georgia: Overall 40-13, SEC 16-11, RPI 1, SOS 5, Q1 11-10
Going back to 2017, the top overall seed has been the No. 1 RPI team in every year but one. Georgia hosts Texas A&M whose RPI dipped to 59 after that heinous sweep at the hands of Missouri. If Georgia wins the series, they’ll probably still be the No. 1 RPI team with 18 SEC wins and a top five strength of schedule. It’s hard to see that falling out. Georgia does have to be careful of losing the series and going 0-1 in Hoover. Having 17 league wins including a sweep of Missouri while losing the top spot in the RPI could be troublesome. Still, it’s a strong position as of today.
Vanderbilt: Overall 36-16, SEC 16-11, RPI 3, SOS 2, Q1 15-13
Vanderbilt has finally won two SEC series in a row. They had alternated wins and loses the first seven weekends. The ‘Dores obviously have a great strength of schedule and RPI. They’re tied with Texas for most quadrant 1 wins. Kentucky visits Nashville over the weekend. Those will be quadrant two games unless Kentucky sweeps Vanderbilt and moves from 33 in the RPI into the top 25, but if that happens Vanderbilt is in trouble. Having 16 league wins would be a bad data point. Vanderbilt is the only SEC team that doesn’t play South Carolina OR Missouri, though, so 16 could be enough. Vanderbilt is a top eight with a series win, though.
LSU: Overall 40-12, SEC 17-10, RPI 7, SOS 24, Q1 13-10
LSU is lacking a little bit in terms of big time series wins. Arkansas is a great win, and the Alabama series is nice, but the Tigers didn’t play Georgia or Vanderbilt and lost weekends at Texas and Auburn (sweep). Still, LSU has 13 quadrant 1 wins and has a real chance to get to 19 SEC wins with a top eight RPI. That’s good enough based on the next group of teams we’ll evaluate.
Alabama: Overall 39-13, SEC 15-12, RPI 8, SOS 18, Q1 12-9
Alabama is probably on the outside looking in right now, because the Crimson Tide stands tied for seventh in the SEC with Tennessee. A series win over Georgia last week was huge, and a trip to Gainesville this weekend is suddenly a great opportunity. Plus, Alabama should draw well in Hoover for as long as they can stick around. So that case is far from closed. But there is probably more work to be done.
NON-SEC CONTENDERS
Florida State: Overall 36-11, ACC 16-8, RPI 9, SOS 39, Q1 11-7
Florida State is a top eight right now. The resume is very good, and I think the ballclub is very good. One big variable here is that the Seminoles lost three games at home against Virginia due to the tragic shooting on campus in April. So, they’ll be three league games short. This weekend No. 11 RPI North Carolina visits Tallahassee. That series is a MONSTER because both are looking at top eight possibilities. The winner will be in good shape. The loser may have work to do.
North Carolina: Overall 37-11, ACC 16-10, RPI 11, SOS 40, Q1 7-5
The weather cost North Carolina the series finale with NC State. So, they’ll be an ACC game short, as well. These three in Tallahassee will be quadrant 1 chances and can vault UNC over FSU in terms of ACC wins. Both will go to the ACC Tournament on a mission, but you could argue it might give UNC a leg up with that rod series win. If the Heels lose the series or are swept, it could spell trouble.
Oregon State: Overall 38-12-1, Independent, RPI 6, SOS 32, Q1 5-8
Oregon State was abandoned by its PAC 12 brethren. All things considered, they put together a pretty good baseball schedule. It required a ton of time on the road, 21 games, and that’s why the RPI is so high. Road wins get a bump. However, Oregon State played two SEC games–Oklahoma and Auburn– and lost them both. They played four straight against RPI 19 Oregon…and lost all four. They took two games and tied one at Big 10 leader Iowa and beat UCLA in a midweek game. But 5-8 versus quadrant one is brutal and I just have a real issue with this resume stacking up with any of the SEC teams.
Coastal Carolina: Overall 41-11, Sun Belt 23-4, RPI 12, SOS 65, Q1 4-5
The Sun Belt is usually pretty strong. This year it’s the No. 8 conference in the RPI. That hurts Coastal. Troy has had a good year, but Coastal lost that series. A couple of midweek wins over Clemson is nice. The Tigers are RPI No. 14. They beat NC State, as well. Still, 4-5 is a bad quadrant 1 number, and the RPI is 12 and may dip with three games against No. 107 Old Dominion this weekend. It’s just not strong enough.
Oregon: Overall 38-13, Big 10 19-8, RPI 19, SOS 41, Q1 9-1
Oregon’s RPI is a big problem, but that’s life in the Big 10. That quadrant 1 record is loud to me. It includes a sweep of USC in LA, a series win over UCLA in Eugene and a four-game sweep of Oregon State (3 in Eugene). If Oregon can sweep Iowa and UCLA drops a game against Northwestern, Oregon would win the Big 10. That would be another data point. Right now that RPI is a problem, but it might be overcome in the next week and a half, especially with a Big 10 Tournament title.
SUMMARY
Basically, the SEC teams ahead of Alabama on this list feel in the top eight with a series win this weekend. None of them play each other. They can also live by the mantra “Don’t Get Swept”. The winner of the Florida State-North Carolina series will feel great about its chances.
I, right now, have Texas, Auburn, LSU, Georgia, Arkansas and Vanderbilt as six SEC teams getting a top eight. I like the winner of Florida State and UNC as my seventh. The battle for that last spot is down to the Florida State-UNC loser, Alabama, Oregon State, Coastal and Oregon to me. I don’t see Tennessee, Florida, Clemson or TCU as realistic possibilities as of now.
The SEC got 14 teams in the NCAA basketball tournament. All 15 softball teams can qualify for theirs, too. We live in a world where the PAC 12 doesn’t exist and the heart and soul of the Big 12 in now in the SEC. And in baseball the Big 10 doesn’t really count. In that new world, the SEC deserves six top eight seeds. It’s not a tough case to make.
A ton can change over the course of 11 days, but right now LSU is in a very sturdy position as the Tigers travel to an inferior opponent.
