By Hunt Palmer
This 30-game grind becomes more and more fascinating every single year.
All 16 SEC teams have gotten punched in the mouth at some point. Most have lived to tell about it. This is a huge weekend for 13 of the 16 teams.
Texas and its 20 wins is safe and into the field of 64 as a national seed. Missouri and its three wins will finish last. That’s unless the Tigers have another sweep in them and South Carolina is swept by LSU. Either way, those two will occupy the cellar.
Everyone else is in a volatile position when it comes to postseason seeding.
LSU likely stands a series win away from a top eight national seed, and the Gamecocks are the last obstacle in the way. While that sounds nearly as advantageous as possible, Texas A&M’s sweep at the hands of winless Missouri last week and South Carolina’s series win over Ole Miss earlier this season serve as reminders that baseball can be fickle if you don’t show up.
Paul Mainieri’s first season in Columbia has been dismal. This South Carolina team has won one of nine series in league play to this point. They’ve been swept five times including twice at home. Tennessee and Florida served those up.
They’re 1-9 in their last 10 league games and have been outscored 76-18 in the last five.
South Carolina is low on talent and perhaps low on motivation although they did put up a strong fight in game two of the Auburn series when they fell behind 11-10. Founders Park, one of the best venues in the SEC, won’t be full over the weekend. The energy has been sucked out of the fanbase at this point in the year.
On paper, this is a mismatch, but once the ball is put in play, that doesn’t count for anything.
STRUGGLING SOUTH CAROLINA
By now you’re aware that South Carolina isn’t very good. Let’s put some numbers behind that.
The offense is dead last in the SEC in runs per game (5.8). That’s behind even Missouri. The modern game calls for on base percentage and slugging. South Carolina ranks 15th in the SEC in both categories as well as OPS. They’re 13th in home runs and walks, 12th in batting average and steals.
It’s a struggle.
The pitching is somehow worse. Thankfully Missouri has kept them out of the basement in most categories, but they’re 15th in ERA, hits allowed, homers allowed and walks issued. They’re 14th in hit batsmen and 12th in strikeouts.
The only two statistics I could find where South Carolina ranks in the top half of the SEC is fewest strikeouts batting (8th) and sacrifice bunts (4th).
PITCH AND CATCH
This sounds very simple, but it’s true. If LSU plays clean baseball this weekend, the Tigers will win two games. Throw the ball over the plate and catch it when it’s hit. If South Carolina doesn’t get free passes and only has 27 outs to play with, LSU will be fine. Walking two guys and mishandling a double play ball in front of a three-run double is really the only way South Carolina can compete to level to win two of the three games.
LSU has issued the fifth most walks among SEC teams, and we know that’s been an issue for some of the bullpen guys. That has to be cleaned up. The Tigers are fielding .979 which is plenty good enough. LSU only made one error last weekend against Arkansas. That will do this weekend.
STAFF SHAKEUP
LSU is holding Kade Anderson and Anthony Eyanson on normal rest this week. I love the decision. All three of these games count the same, no matter the order. That puts LSU at a real position of strength on Friday and Saturday while not overly taxing your workhorses down the stretch.
I think the starting options are Jaden Noot, Conner Ware and Zac Cowan. Noot is a strike thrower who has gotten LSU off to some good midweek starts. Ware offers a left-handed look though he hasn’t been stretched out quite as much as Noot has. I don’t love the idea of Cowan starting because he’s so dominant in a relief role. But he certainly can do it, and he might be able to shut Carolina down for five innings to start the game.
My guess is that Noot gets the ball, and that LSU would love three steady innings. After that, all hands on deck depending on the score.
PETRY-FIED
Ethan Petry is clearly South Carolina’s best player. As a freshman in 2023 he was 1st Team All-SEC and an All-American when he hit 23 home runs and drove in 75. He’s got 54 home runs for his career, just four shy of Jared Jones who moves to fourth all-time at LSU with another.
He injured his shoulder playing defense in right field two weeks ago and has missed time. He returned to the lineup Tuesday and went 0-for-4 with a pair of strikeouts before exiting the game in the eighth. Mainieri said Wednesday that Petry “was not feeling too good” and called him “very questionable”.
This will be Petry’s last weekend as a Gamecock, so it wouldn’t be stunning to see him grab a bat at some point. He’s compromised, though.
ROOSTERS’ ROTATION
South Carolina doesn’t have much in the way of a rotation. Six pitchers have started an SEC game.
Jake McCoy is the only arm to start all nine weeks. The SEC hits .313 against him. He’s walked an alarming 27 in 36 SEC innings and has allowed 10 home runs in nine weeks. Last week Auburn tattooed him for seven earned runs in four innings.
He’ll oppose Anderson on Friday night.
Saturday, Mainieri will give the ball to Ashton Crowther. He’s a sophomore transfer from Miami who got his first league start against Florida two weeks ago.
In the last two weekends against Florida and Auburn, he’s been decent. He’s worked seven total innings and allowed just one earned run on eight hits. He’s got a fastball at 91 mph and a straight changeup in the low 80s. Everything he throws sinks. There is zero ride to the fastball.
He’s only gotten up to 66 pitches, so I’m not sure a 95-pitch outing is in the cards Thursday night for Crowther, but he’s one of the few Gamecock pitchers who has gotten some outs over the last two weeks.
What I failed to mention about both arms is that they’re left-handed. LSU has had its struggled versus lefties. That’s well-documented. I thought the Tigers were decent against Zach Root last week. He’s miles more talented than either of these two South Carolina hurlers. Mainieri is pushing basically the only button he’s got, hoping LSU can’t solve a pair of southpaws.
SERIES SCHEDULE (Times Central)
📍 Founders Park pic.twitter.com/TZjzoPgBWA
— LSU Baseball (@LSUbaseball) May 14, 2025
Thursday: 6:00 SECN
Friday: 6:00 SECN+
Saturday: 2:00 SECN+
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