Derek Carr’s 2025 fantasy football projection

By Ross Jackson

The NFL Draft and offseason workout programs are right around the corner and that means we’re getting closer and closer to fantasy football drafts. Leading up to fantasy draft season, many experts are releasing their rankings for each position, getting re-drafters ready for the upcoming challenge. 

When ESPN’s Mike Clay released his top-30 fantasy quarterbacks, it was an immediate curiosity where New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr would rank. There’s been so much talk about this potential departure from and even conversations around his potential replacements in this year’s draft. However the Saints have remained steadfast that he will be their guy in 2025, as evidenced by an offseason restructure.

So with Carr in New Orleans, the intrigue of his ranking peaks. And unfortunately for the 12th-year passer and his club, he’s uncomfortably nestled at spot No. 29 of 30.

Carr is back for his 12th NFL season and his third in New Orleans. He has played pretty well since joining the Saints (including finishing top 12 in completion percentage, YPA and QBR last season), but injuries cost him seven games last season and he remained an underwhelming fantasy option. Even after a strong start to the season (21 or more fantasy points in Weeks 1 and 2), Carr ended up averaging 15.1 fantasy PPG in 10 games, which ranked 19th for the season. Incredibly, that matches his best fantasy showing since his career-best 10th in 2016. Carr is a solid quarterback with a decent WR trio (Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Brandin Cooks), but he simply doesn’t run enough (under 110 yards in four straight seasons with one TD during the span) to allow high-end fantasy output. He’s a fringe QB2.

Last season, Clay had Carr projected as the No. 27 quarterback before the season. He predicted the passer would appear in 15 games, throwing for 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.

In reality, Carr appeared in just ten games thanks to an injury-riddled season. During that time he threw 15 touchdowns to five interceptions on his way to what equates to a 25.5 touchdown to 8.5 interception 17-game average. Carr finished as the No. 26 passer in standard leagues, not far off from Clay’s projection.

It seems that the injury bug has brought upon the biggest negative impact for Carr in fantasy, along with his lack of being a running threat. How he performs in 2025 remains to be seen, but after such a tumultuous offseason, Carr may feel he has something to prove. That could be good for fantasy owners who invest in him as a second passer if he outperforms that margin.

Check out more of our Saints coverage.