(Photo Credit: @LSUbaseball on X)
By Hunt Palmer
Sweeping three of your first four SEC series is like buying an insurance policy.
This weekend LSU filed a claim.
The Tigers were swept out of Plainsmen Park and tumbled to 10-5 in SEC play. It was Auburn’s first sweep of LSU since 1988 when Frank Thomas was playing first base for the Tigers. He’s now 56-years-old.
While a sweep is concerning, LSU’s presumed flaws weren’t what cost the Tigers. LSU’s bullpen did the job, firing 12.2 innings and allowing just one earned run. That wasn’t the problem.
The Tigers’ ace hung a breaking ball that got smoked for a three-run triple, and the offense never got out of neutral. Considering the way Kade Anderson has thrown the ball for eight weeks, one iffy night is hardly worth panicking over. The way LSU has swung the bat for 30-plus games, one iffy weekend feels the same.
BAD BATS
LSU only scored eight runs in three games. Only one of those came before the seventh inning. The Tigers were held scoreless in 22 of 27 innings in Auburn and eight of nine in Thibodaux on Tuesday.
Generally speaking, 18-for-96 (.188) is not going to get much done.
For the weekend, LSU was 3-for-27 (.111) with runners in scoring position and left 26 men stranded on base. Five doubles and Steven Milam’s homer were the only extra base hits for the entire weekend.
When you don’t slug or hit in the clutch, you’re not going to score much.
Jared Jones (1-for-13, 6 K), Ethan Frey (0-for-7, 2 K) and Luis Hernandez (1-for-9, 4 K) combined to go 1-for-29 with 12 strikeouts. That’s most of your right-handed thunder, and it was silent.
Sometimes these weekends happen. Two years ago, LSU was the only team in the SEC that was never swept.
I don’t think Auburn unlocked some plan of attack on LSU’s offense. I think LSU just stunk it up for three days. LSU is still fourth in the SEC in runs, third in hits, third in on base percentage, first in doubles and third in terms of fewest strikeouts.
Alabama is 12th in ERA, and only Missouri has allowed more hits than the Tide in the league. If the issues persist through next week, we’ll change the conversation. Not today.
STARTER STRUGGLES
LSU’s starting pitching wasn’t good over the weekend. Yes, the defense could have helped. If Tanner Reaves gloves that hot shot and turns a double play in the fifth on Friday, four runs come off the board, and Anderson’s line looks much better.
Anthony Eyanson could have used some help from his outfielders in the fourth on Saturday. Curiel can make that play at the wall, and Josh Pearson catches the following double eight or nine out of 10 times. That’s two more runs that could have been prevented. Still, Eyanson got squared up a good bit.
So did Chase Shores who was never going to last very long on Sunday. With Zac Cowan and Casan Evans ready to go, Shores was going to be lifted at the first sign of real trouble. He gave up three hits, two walks and a hit batsmen and couldn’t get an out in the third.
Shores isn’t really making the strides I had hoped for. A 97 mph sinking fastball should be less hittable than it has been. The slider has been ok, not great. His command has been poor.
In 18.2 SEC innings, Shores has walked 13 and hit three. That’s nearly a free base every inning. Then you add in that league hitters are hitting .297 off of him, and you’ve got a problem. The next four weeks are not great opponents for figuring things out on the mound. Alabama has some star power in the lineup. Tennessee is elite. Texas A&M is figuring some things out, and Arkansas hits everything in sight.
I still favor Shores in the third slot in the rotation because I think having Cowan and Evans to close out games is valuable. I’m losing faith that Shores will be a high-level SEC pitcher. It’s going to take a Ty Floyd-like emergence for that to happen.
HALFWAY HOME
If you would have given me 10-5 at the halfway point of league play with only two non-conference losses, I’d have absolutely taken it.
As I’ve written before, 18 SEC wins is likely good enough to get a Top 8. I think 19 is essentially a lock. An 8-7 finish is not asking too much. LSU will do itself a large favor by winning at least two of three against Alabama this weekend. If you get to 12-6, you just have to play .500 baseball the rest of the way.
The only concern I have is the log jam of SEC teams at the top. Currently the top five in the RPI come from the SEC, and nine of the top 12 are SEC teams. If the committee wants to cap the number of league teams, you may have to get to 19 or 20 to solidify your standing. There are a ton of variables, and we’ll continue to monitor them here.
Something to be very aware of, LSU finishes with three games with South Carolina. They’re awful. The Gamecocks are 2-13 in league play, and by the time LSU gets to Columbia, that could be a 5-22 baseball team with eyes on the transfer portal.
LSU will be a heavy favorite to win at least two games that weekend. That alters the math a little bit.
This Tiger team is good, not infallible. It’s extremely likely they have not lost their last series. The 2023 team was a juggernaut, and that team was a Gavin Dugas gram slam in South Carolina from losing three SEC weekends.
LSU’s in a good spot. The offense just needs to wake up.
