(Photo credit: @LSUbaseball on X)
By Hunt Palmer
In the biggest spot of the season, LSU delivered on Sunday.
That rubber game was so big on so many levels, and LSU played a top two or three game of the year to run rule Tennessee and take the series. That win, in addition to taking the head-to-head series, moved LSU in front of the Vols in both the RPI and the SEC standings. It was LSU’s first series win over a top 10 RPI team.
Not to mention that it fought off two days of Tennessee control even if the result of Friday’s game didn’t show it.
In this piece, I’m going to talk about the three-game series as opposed to where LSU sits in the postseason picture (more on that to come this week), but the series win was a huge one for this team in that regard.
SUNDAYS SOLVED?
In his first college start, Casan Evans passed every test. He got knocked all over the ballpark in the first inning, but he limited the damage to two runs. From there, it was lights out.
He got ahead of or threw strike one to 15 of the first 21 batters he faced, actually falling behind the last three but retiring them in order in the sixth. From the second inning on, he set down 16 of 18 Tennessee hitters, and he didn’t walk a batter on the afternoon.
Tennessee had one runner reach second base after the first.
Had he done that in a midweek game against McNeese, I would have been impressed. Had he done it against Missouri or Oklahoma, I’d have been even more interested. Doing it against Tennessee, one of the five best lineups in the country, is proof that Evans is already prepared to be an SEC starter and/or a postseason starter.
LSU has a hole in the third rotation slot. Should he fill it?
The answer is, when he can. I’m not willing to remove him completely from the back of the bullpen right now. Zac Cowan is still a shutdown closer, but if he throws 51 pitches on a Friday in relief of Anderson, the rest of the bullpen guys have not proven they can hold a Saturday lead without Evans.
Look at the last 3.1 innings of Saturday’s game. Jay Johnson called on six different relievers to get 10 outs. None of them had clean outings.
William Schmidt and Mavrick Rizy combined to walk three hitters to get one out. DJ Primeaux gave up a hit. Chase Shores hit two batters and was saddled with four earned runs in an inning. Cooper Williams gave up a three-run homer, and Grant Fontenot hit a man.
Would you, the LSU fan, want that group holding a 5-3 lead in the eighth while Cowan is burned and Evans is waiting to start game three? No shot.
If the first two games don’t call for Evans, he’s ready to go 85 pitches to get LSU of to a good Sunday start. If LSU needs Evans in some elimination game in the postseason, he’s ready. Right now, LSU needs him to affect winning when he can, not sit around until Sunday.
FRONTRUNNERS
That brings me to the next big point. LSU must play from ahead.
When LSU gets off to a clunky start offensively, it hamstrings Johnson’s ability to deploy Cowan and Evans. He doesn’t want to burn them while LSU is behind, because using them in a loss is catastrophic to LSU’s chances on a weekend.
LSU is 15-1 when Cowan pitches and 11-2 when Evans pitches. Each lost a game they appeared in at Auburn, when LSU led for two innings on the entire weekend, and Evans pitched well in game three of the Texas series, but LSU was down 5-0 when he entered.
Johnson has used Cowan twice when LSU trailed in a close game that the Tigers fought back to win. He did that Friday night to keep the Vols close. That’s rolling the dice.
Until one of the other arms truly steps up and can be counted on, and that click is rapidly ticking, Johnson is going to have to really think long and hard about deploying his best arms when LSU is behind.
When either of those two arms enters with a lead, LSU is unbeaten.
ACE ISSUES
This conversation is complex.
SEC aces are SEC aces for a reason. They don’t get hit very much. To look internally first, I certainly didn’t chastise opponents for struggling against Aaron Nola and Paul Skenes (I chastised my Cubs for struggling against Aaron Nola last night, that’s a different conversation). Kyson Witherspoon, Liam Doyle and Marcus Phillips have some of Nola-Skenes traits from strikeout numbers to draftability to velocity.
And it should be noted that LSU has won games this season against Jared Spencer of Texas, Pico Kohn of Mississippi State, Witherspoon of Oklahoma and Doyle.
Before Spencer got hurt, Texas only lost two games he started. The other was to Louisville, and the Cardinals didn’t score while he was in the game.
Oklahoma is 8-3 when Witherspoon starts, and he’s going to be a top 15 pick.
Tennessee is 9-2 when Doyle starts, and the Tigers got one of those Friday.
Those wins are impressive, but there is context. LSU couldn’t muster a hit against Doyle or Phillips until the sixth inning. The at bats were pretty feeble until the back-to-back homers off of Phillips in the seventh.
Johnson was very quick to tip his cap to both of those starters, and I’m right there with him. However, LSU is graded on a championship curve. If you want to win championships, you have to go through aces.
These are the best arms in the country, but I’d like to see a little bit more from LSU as far as hard contact off of those guys.
TOP TWO
Speaking of aces, LSU has one. And a No. 2, as well.
At this point, I’m comfortable with Kade Anderson and Anthony Eyanson against just about anyone.
Those two combined for 13IP, 12H, 4ER, 6BB, 19K against a stellar Tennessee lineup in a live ballpark. That will get the job done nearly every week.
Anderson struck out 11 by himself and kept all 30 hitters he faced in the ballpark. That’s been really the only issue for him this year.
A 1-2 punch atop a rotation is vital for a postseason run. Lange-Poche and Skenes-Floyd have been instrumental in LSU’s last two trips to the title series. Anderson-Eyanson hasn’t proven itself to be that level at this point, but I like the trend.
BUNTING BLUES
I’ll address this because it has come up so often on my X feed (and my text messages). Bunting is a controversial topic. I get that.
My stance is that there’s a time and place for it. That part is subjective. What’s not subjective is that not every bunt call comes from Johnson. For instance, when Derek Curiel tried to drag bunt with two outs and a runner on third on Saturday, he did that on his own.
When Jake Brown gots a safety squeeze call and failed to get it down 0-1 on Sunday before striking out with one out and runners on second and third, that’s from the bench.
I can promise you there are reasons for every call Johnson makes. I can’t give you every reason. He doesn’t give those out.
Here’s one theory rooted in some truth without hard data to back it up. Brown hits righties better than lefties. The towering blast he hit on Sunday was off a right hander. The failed bunt attempt that led to a strikeout earlier in the game was off a lefty. Johnson probably felt Brown’s best chance to drive the run in was to try to bunt. Brown’s 0-2 swing after that missed by two feet.
I will absolutely hear the argument that LSU is bunting a little bit too much, but I also respect LSU’s preparation and reasoning. Every spot is different. I’m not going to toss a blanket on every single bunt attempt as foolish or above criticism.
Lastly, I do understand that Dean Curley’s two errors on Friday night (Saturday morning, actually), flipped this series. Avoiding that data point would be an oversight. College kids, make errors, though. And Curiel and Jared Jones made Tennessee pay with the two biggest swings of the season.
Tennessee controlled the action for the vast majority of the first two games. Still, LSU found a way to win the series. That’s a huge feather in the caps of Anderson, Cowan, Johnson and the whole lineup that got it done in game one. And then to Evans and that lineup for dominating on Sunday.
How LSU won was important in February and March. Now, all that matters is that you win. LSU did that against a damn good team over the weekend.
