Third seasons for a head coach are usually telling.
By that time, the problem players should have been weeded out of the program, the coaching staff adjusted, the schemes modified, and the talent level upgraded.
If the coach has not found a quarterback by then, he’ll soon be collecting his buyout.
Brian Kelly’s first season exceeded expectations, at least in part, because his transfer portal haul had some aces in its draw. His second season portal class did not match that, and it resulted in an uneven year, highlighted by a record setting offense desperately trying to cover for an unsightly defense.
Third seasons have a fine history at LSU, and as optimism overflows in advance of the opener, we take a look back at what Kelly is striving for in 2024.
Ed Orgeron’s third (full) season produced the highest achieving team in college football history, ending in a National Championship. That would be too much to ask of anyone, but it’s close enough in the rearview to know what is possible in Baton Rouge.
Les Miles’ third team won the National Championship as well, though they lost two games along the way. Still undefeated in regulation, it was the end of an awesome three-year run for Miles.
Nick Saban’s fourth team, not his third, won the national title, but it is fair to wonder what might have been in year three if not for two unfortunate events that combined to sink LSU’s 2002 season.
First, contrary to their agreement, Virginia Tech scheduled a game before they would meet the Tigers, in what was supposed to be the season opener for both teams. The Hokies worked out the kinks vs Arkansas St, then plowed LSU under a week later. Two Tiger turnovers, and a penalty that wiped out an 81-yard punt return touchdown by Domanick Davis, played a key part.
Virginia Tech would also delay their return trip to Baton Rouge from 2004 to 2007. The 41-point thrashing they took that year was richly deserved.
Second, starting quarterback Matt Mauck would sustain a season ending injury against Florida, running a keep with LSU leading 36-7 in the fourth quarter. That head scratching call thrust a young Marcus Randall into the lineup before he was ready, and the Tigers lost four of their last seven.
Got a Bluegrass Miracle out of it though.
Would LSU have won the national championship with a leadup game to Virginia Tech and Mauck healthy the rest of the way? Probably not, but they had an awful lot of momentum at midseason.
Gerry DiNardo’s third year was eerily similar to his second. Both resulted in a tie for first in the SEC West, only to lose a spot in Atlanta to the winner of the Iron Bowl on a tie breaker. Those two teams represented DiNardo’s best results in his five-year tenure.
The highlights for Curley Hallman were few and non-existent for most of his time in Baton Rouge, but his 4th place in the West, 5-6 effort was the best for his term. That season was his third.
Bill Arnsparger had three strong seasons in the mid-1980’s, but his last team was his best, winning the SEC in 1986 and finishing ranked 10th in the country. It was the highest final ranking for the school in two decades.
Jerry Stovall had a wonderful team in his third year. Riding senior QB Alan Risher, the Dalton and James Gang as freshmen, and a superb defense, the Tigers made it to the Orange Bowl. They beat Alabama in Bear Bryant’s final game against LSU and Bobby Bowden’s Florida State Seminoles with a trip to Miami on the line. They lost three games but by a combined seven points.
Charles McClendon’s third season resulted in a Sugar Bowl win and a final national ranking of seventh. McClendon would duplicate each of those feats again, but not in the same season, making year three a banner one for Mac.
It ends there. Paul Dietzel’s third team broke even before his fourth team broke through. Legends Gaynell Tinsley, Bernie Moore, and Biff Jones all had better years prior to their third. Mike Archer would have to flip his first and third seasons to fit the category.
But there can be a little magic in a year three. Kelly’s last three jobs produced a combined third year record of 32-8, so he’s had some success in this spot before, and he has great leadership from his best three players; Will Campbell, Emery Jones, and Harold Perkins.
All in their third year.
