Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
By Ross Jackson
The New Orleans Saints will be a bit outmatched headed to the east coast to take on the Buffalo Bills. From scoring to pressure, the Saints find themselves at several disadvantages. That sets the table for either a shocking upset or a game to go exactly the way that many will expect.
Here are some of the major statistics that set the table for this Week 4 bout at Highmark Stadium.
Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense
Saints Offense – No. 29 | Bills Defense – No. 20
The Bill’s defense has been surprisingly run-of-the-mill to start the season. It is the first scoring defense outside of the top-15 that the Saints have faced at the time of their matchup (the Arizona Cardinals carried over a No. 15 defense from 2024). But whether or not the Saints will be able to take advantage of that will be the big question and challenge.
Bills Offense – No. 3 | Saints Defense – No. 26
This is one of the immediately most concerning comparisons of this game. New Orleans is outmatched in a few areas and keeping points on the board against a team that consistently puts them on the board is a big factor in which to trail.
Point Differential
Saints – minus-43 (No. 31) | Bills – plus-31 (No. 3)
One of the team’s top teams in point differential, Buffalo, against New Orleans, one of the lowest-ranking in the category. The game is all about scoring points, and the Saints both struggle to score and, after their Week 3 loss, have shown a vulnerability in keeping other teams from doing so. A big bounceback by the Saints’ defense and special teams units will be necessary in Buffalo.
Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense (Yards)
Saints Offense – No. 17 | Bills Defense – No. 2
New Orleans is right about league average in accumulating passing yards, but it will face one of the league’s most limiting units in the category this week. The Saints are No. 3 in passing attempts, but rank No. 29 in net yards per attempt. So while there has been a concerted effort to get the passing game going while trailing in each week, the efficiency has not found its way to generating production.
Bills Offense – No. 6 | Saints Defense – No. 17
The Saints’ defense had one of its roughest showings in recent memory last weekend against the Seahawks. While the yardage count didn’t get out of control, the quick-strike allowances to quarterback Sam Darnold and his receivers doesn’t bode well for facing a potential repeat MVP in Josh Allen.
Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense (Yards)
Saints Offense – No. 18 | Bills Defense – No. 32
Here is the place that the Saints must find a way to attack if they want any chance at hanging in this game. Holding on the football and controlling the game on the ground are absolute musts for New Orleans. Getting both offensive linemen Taliese Fuaga and Trevor Penning could be major factors in taking advantage of this matchup. Along with Alvin Kamara, this game could be a “just in time” moment for a second running back to truly establish themselves against a defense that will give up some ground.
Bills Offense – No. 1 | Saints Defense – No. 13
While the Bills have the league’s lowest-ranking rush defense, they have the top-ranking rushing offense. Running back James Cook has been outstanding all year, ranking No. 2 in rushing yards through this early portion of the year. Controlling the ball on the offensive side with the run game may be the Saints’ best rushing defense just by virtue of working to keep the Bills’ offense off of the field.
Turnover Differential
Saints – 0 (T-No. 16) | Bills – Plus 3 (No. 4)
The Saints have continued to break even throughout the year in giveaways/takeaways per game. However, Buffalo finds themselves on the better side of the margin with a trio of additional takeaways.
Third Down Conversion Rate
Saints Offense – 35% (No. 26) | Bills Defense – 41.4% (No. 18)
The Saints’ third down offense has left a lot to be desired despite seeing near the league-lead in third and four to six yard attempts with 12, No. 3 in the NFL. The Bill’s third down defense is respectably in the middle of the pack. If the Saints want to surprise in this one, staying on the field will be an absolute must.
Bills Offense – 45.0% (No. 5) | Saints Defense – 45.9% (No. 27)
Meanwhile, staying on the field is what the Bills do incredibly well. One of the reasons why is that over a third of the team’s attempts in this situation are third and short (three or fewer yards). The Bills do very well picking up third downs with their run game. Cook’s ability to cutback and create yardage in the zone run game make them a particularly tricky matchup.
Pressure Rate Allowed vs. Generated
Saints Offense – 35.6% (No. 14) | Bills Defense – 47.2% (No. 3)
Bills Offense – 26.1% (No. 2) | Saints Defense – 24.5% (No. 31)
The Saints are on the wrong side of the equation in both phases here. The Saints’ offense hasn’t been a big concern in allowing pressure to be generated, mostly because quarterback Spencer Rattler has the second-fastest time to throw in the league out of the 30 quarterbacks with at least 50 passing attempts in 2025 so far. Meanwhile, the defense does not create enough pressure to feel like it can challenge a No. 3 protection group. Though the potential return of defensive end Chase Young could help to bolster the unit a considerable amount. Whether or not it will be enough is the question.
