Statistically Speaking: Saints finally see evenly-matched opponent on the horizon

By Ross Jackson

After a tough four-game schedule to start the New Orleans Saints’ season, things are finally set to lighten up. This week, against the New York Giants, the Saints will face their first opponent with a losing record and their first non-veteran quarterback. 

The Giants, who pulled together a shocking win last week over the then-undefeated Los Angeles Chargers, will bring their 1-3 record and rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart to New Orleans (0-4) on Sunday. 

The matchup between the two teams currently favors the Saints (-1.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook), a first for the team’s season. Here are the numbers behind the major statistics that set up this Week 5 matchup. 

Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense

Saints Offense – No. 28 | Giants Defense – No. 23

Giants Offense – No. 27 | Saints Defense – No. 30

Neither team’s offense does much to put points on the board and neither team’s defense does much to keep them off. Even though the Giants’ defense is ranked in the lower 20s, the team is still surrendering more than 25 points per game. New Orleans has only exceeded 20 once so far this season when it scored 21 against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 2. One of the two offenses will break through in this game, and that will be the difference. 

Point Differential

Saints – minus-55 (No. 30) | Giants – minus-28 (No. 26)

Both teams have lost by consistently considerable margins this season. However, the Saints last two games, losses by 31 and 12 respectively, have aided their larger deficit. 

Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense (Yards)

Saints Offense – No. 27 | Giants Defense – No. 25

The Giants have seen the second-fewest passing attempts but have surrendered nearly six yards per passing attempt. That bodes well for the Saints’ offense which is trying to get its passing attack off the ground after ranking near the top of the league in passing attempts but low in yards per play. This could be the get-right game the Saints need in that phase of the game. 

Giants Offense – No. 17 | Saints Defense – No. 15

A more evenly matched battle awaits here. However, a major injury changes the landscape. Former LSU Tiger and top Giants wide receiver Malik Nabors suffered an unfortunate ACL injury last week that is ending his promising sophomore campaign. That, and a rookie quarterback are likely to change the production level for the Giants’ passing attack. 

Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense (Yards)

Saints Offense – No. 10 | Giants Defense – No. 29

For the second week in a row, the Saints will face a bottom-three rushing defense. That’s a huge advantage for them as they should be looking to build off of the ground game as their identity. New Orleans has eclipsed 100 team rushing yards three out of four games this season, including rushing for 189 last week against the Buffalo Bills. 

Running backs Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller combined for 135 of those yards. Per Next Gen Stats, the Saints also gained more than 160 rushing yards after contact in Week 4, showing a diverse and physical approach that should fare well against the Giants. 

Giants Offense – No. 17 | Saints Defense – No. 18

The real test here will be of volume. The Giants are top-10 in rushing attempts while the Saints are bottom-10 in rushing attempts faced. However, on a per rush average, both teams are evenly matched at 4.0 generated versus 4.0 allowed. So if the Giants run less in this game than they have in the past, the raw number of attempts won’t allow them to gain the yardage they need to remain a middle-of-the-pack rushing team. However, that’s assuming the Saints run front holds up, which was vulnerable in the middle of the defensive line last week against the best rushing team in the league.

Turnover Differential

Saints – 0 (T-No. 13) | Giants – 0 (T-No. 13)

Both teams have given and taken away opportunities at the same rate on both sides. Each team has three giveaways and takeaways heading into this Week 5 matchup. New Orleans just saw its first interception of the season thanks to impressive rookie safety Jonas Sanker. 

Third Down Conversion Rate

Saints Offense – 35.85% (T-No. 24) | Giants Defense – 42.32% (No. 26)

Giants Offense – 32.90% (No. 28) | Saints Defense – 42.55% (No. 27)

The two teams are fairly evenly matched in this category. Staying on the field will be a big key to victory for each club this week. Both team’s offenses and defenses performed well in this area last week, but the Giants offense saw the biggest leap. Against the Chargers, with the threat of Dart as a runner, the Giants converted 46.67% of their third down chances, ranking top-five in the league for Week 4. 

Pressure Rate Allowed vs. Generated

Saints Offense – 34.1% (No. 14) | Giants Defense – 34.6% (No. 15)

The offensive and defensive lines will be evenly matched when the Saints have the ball, though the loss of right guard Cesar Ruiz could loom large. The Saints have let up both high pressure and sack percentages with him off of the field from 2022 to 2024. If veteran lineman Dillon Radunz is back from his toe injury in time, that could be a big benefit for New Orleans. But if not, the opportunity to further develop rookie lineman Torricelli Simpkins III is a positive one. 

Giants Offense – 38.6% (No. 24) | Saints Defense – 22.1% (No. 32)

New Orleans reeled in another multi-sack game against the Bills and should be looking to bring the pressure against the Giants’ young passer this week. Defensive end Carl Granderson is already one sack away from his 2024 season total (5.5) and the Saints could get a big boost from the return of veteran edge rusher Chase Young. His return could be very timely for New Orleans if he managed to get back out on the field this week.