Statistically Speaking: Saints outmatched at Rams

By Ross Jackson

The Week 9 contest between the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams could be a hallmark game for the Saints, should they choose to unveil their rookie quarterback Tyler Shough as their new starter. The decision surrounding the team’s starting quarterback is expected to be made soon and could quickly become the biggest story of this game. 

But winning in the NFL is a team effort. Regardless of their quarterback, the Saints will take the field completely outmatched against one of the NFC’s best teams. New Orleans takes the field as a 13.5-point underdog on the road against Los Angeles, one of the largest speeds of the year for the Saints. 

Here is a look at the upcoming matchup.

Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense (Points Per Game)

Saints Offense – No. 29 | Rams Defense – No. 3

Rams Offense – No. T-11 | Saints Defense – No. 24

From a scoring perspective, the Saints are entirely outmatched. The team’s offense has struggled to find the end zone all season long and has consistently put its defense in short-yardage situations, as have the special teams unit for that matter, making it tough to keep points off of the board. 

The Rams may not be the high-octane offense they once were under head coach Sean McVay, but the team is still explosive and can score in a hurry. 

Point Differential

Saints – minus-81 (No. 31) | Rams – plus-58 (No. 6)

New Orleans lost last week to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points, increasing the team’s already low point differential. The Saints and head coach Kellen Moore have struggled to turn possessions into touchdowns, attempting field goals on more possessions in opposing territory than they’d like. Recently, they’ve also taken to passing on long field goals as kicker Blake Grupe has struggled throughout the season. It’ll be up to the resurgent defense to keep points off the board to help the game be manageable. 

Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense (Yards Per Game)

Saints Offense – No. 22 | Rams Defense – No. 14

New Orleans benched quarterback Spencer Rattler last week in trying to generate “a spark” on offense. If the team goes back to him, there will be concerns of the young passer understandably looking over his shoulder and perhaps not being more aggressive, a desire Moore has expressed for his offense. 

This area of the game may all come down to the quarterback chosen for Sunday’s game. However, protection and pass-catchers will have to be far more reliable and consistent than they have been. Both have been on and off throughout the year. 

Rams Offense – No. 3 | Saints Defense – No. 9

The biggest difference here may end up being the health of wide receiver Puka Nacua. The wideout missed the team’s Week 7 game ahead of last week’s bye week with an ankle injury. He is expected to be available on Sunday against the Saints. 

Should that be the case, the Saints’ defense will find itself challenged in the passing game. But New Orleans has done an impressive job in coverage over recent weeks and the return of defensive end Chase Young has already begun to pay dividends. 

Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense (Yards Per Game)

Saints Offense – No. 28 | Rams Defense – No. 14

The Saints haven’t had a 10-plus yard run in three weeks and haven’t rushed for over 100 yards as a team in four games. The Rams defense is just above the middle of the pack in rushing defense. New Orleans will need to find a way to get its run game going. This was expected to be the bread and butter of Moore’s offense. Despite a strong start, things have simmered in this area. 

One element that will be very important here will be the scoring deficit. If the Rams pull ahead quickly, which has been the rhythm of the Saints’ season so far, the run game will continue to suffer. 

Rams Offense – No. 22 | Saints Defense – No. 20

This is where the Saints are most evenly matched with the Rams. The New Orleans run defense has looked great in some games, but have struggled in others. Los Angeles hasn’t had a strong rushing attack, so if the Saints defense can maintain its impressive play from last week, the Rams could be made one-dimensional. 

Turnover Differential

Saints – minus-2 (No. T-19) | Rams – plus-3 (No. 10)

The Saints have quickly erased the positive turnover margin they created for themselves with five takeaways against the New York Giants. Since then, the team has committed nine turnovers while forcing just two takeaways. Eight giveaways have come in the last two games and are a large reason for why the team’s quarterback decision has become uncertain. 

Third Down Conversion Rate

Saints Offense – 38.8% (No. 17) | Rams Defense – 34.0% (No. 4)

Rams Offense – 37.7% (No. 21) | Saints Defense – 36.8% (No. 12)

Both teams’ defenses have the advantage here. Extending drives has not been a strength of either the Saints or Rams offenses. Though New Orleans could continue some positive momentum from last week. Against the Buccaneers, New Orleans converted 50% of its third down tries on offense. 

Pressure Rate Allowed vs. Generated

Saints Offense – 37.7% (No. 23) | Rams Defense – 42.0% (No. 4)

It’s another rough week ahead for the Saints’ offensive line which has surrendered nine sacks in the last two games. The Rams’ 26 sacks so far in the season ranks No. 2 in the NFL, behind only the Denver Broncos’ 36.  

Rams Offense – 35.7% (No. 13) | Saints Defense – 32.7% (No. 23)

While Young has helped to improve the Saints’ pass rush. The team still has a long way to go. The Rams are a full ten ranking spots ahead of the Saints offense in keeping pressure off of their quarterback, Matthew Stafford. However, the two teams are only separated by two percentage points. That context is worth keeping in mind on both sides of the equation. The Saints don’t have to go far to improve, nor do the Rams have to go far to regress.