Jordan Prather-Imagn Images
By Chris Marler
The Week 12 betting lines are out, and there’s plenty to unpack. If there’s one thing seasoned bettors know, it’s that the “sure thing” almost never is, and when public money is stacked heavily on one side, fading the crowd is usually the smartest play.
There are two massive instances of that this weekend. Both South Carolina and Arkansas are currently getting over 97% of the public money in their games this weekend. We saw this a week ago in Mississippi State against Georgia. In that game Georgia was favored by -9.5 points but 99% of the public money was on Mississippi State. Georgia won by 21.
Will that same thing happen this weekend?
The other games of interest are the two top eleven match-ups between Texas and Georgia and Alabama and Oklahoma. Both matchups have seen significant line movement since the early summer numbers were posted. But that’s mostly because those opening lines were made back in July, long before everything changed for these four teams, and long before the stakes got this high in November. The current lines are almost exactly the same as when they re-opened on Sunday.
Lastly, one of the most interesting games of the weekend that is garnering a ton of interest from an underdog standpoint is Kentucky vs. Tennessee Tech. Kentucky was considered, overwhelmingly, the worst team in the league a month ago. After back-to-back wins and a close game against Texas, they are now on the cusp of being bowl eligible. That starts this weekend against an FCS opponent. That FCS opponent just so happens to be 10-0. As is the case with most FBS versus FCS games, there was no initial line for the game. Oddsmakers have since settled on 21.5 in favor of the Wildcats.
Arkansas at LSU
- Opening Line: LSU -6.5
- Current Line: LSU -5.5
- Public Bets: Arkansas 63% | LSU 37%
- Public Money: Arkansas 99% | LSU 1%
South Carolina at Texas A&M
- Opening Line: Texas A&M -18.5
- Current Line: Texas A&M -17.5
- Public Bets: Texas A&M 55% | South Carolina 45%
- Public Money: South Carolina 97% | Texas A&M 3%
Tennessee Tech at Kentucky
- Opening Line: N/A
- Current Line: Kentucky -21.5
- Public Bets: Tennessee Tech 73% | Kentucky 27%
- Public Money: Kentucky 80% | Tennessee Tech 20%
Oklahoma at Alabama
- Opening Line: Alabama -14
- Current Line: Alabama -5.5
- Public Bets: Oklahoma 52% | Alabama 48%
- Public Money: Oklahoma 54% | Alabama 46%
New Mexico State at Tennessee
- Opening Line: Tennessee -39.5
- Current Line: Tennessee -40.5
- Public Bets: Tennessee 87% | New Mexico State 13%
- Public Money: Tennessee 92% | New Mexico State 8%
Florida at Ole Miss
- Opening Line: Ole Miss -7.5
- Current Line: Ole Miss -12.5
- Public Bets: Ole Miss 68% | Florida 32%
- Public Money: Ole Miss 67% | Florida 33%
Texas at Georgia
- Opening Line: Georgia -2.5
- Current Line: Georgia -6.5
- Public Bets: Texas 53% | UGA 47%
- Public Money: UGA 56% | Texas 44%
Mississippi State at Missouri
- Opening Line: Missouri -5.5
- Current Line: Missouri -7
- Public Bets: Mississippi State 59% | Missouri 41%
- Public Money: Missouri 72% | Mississippi State 28%
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