Bob Donnan-Imagn Images
By Ross Jackson
It’s a clash of a pair of teams currently holding top-10 picks in the 2026 NFL Draft. The 2-9 New Orleans Saints are coming off of a disappointing and painful loss to their most bitter rival team, while the Miami Dolphins (4-7) are riding high off of a pair of big wins and a bye week.
The Saints and Dolphins were both considered to be among the NFL’s worst teams through the first half of the season, but Miami is on the upward trajectory New Orleans had hoped to be on after getting its second win against the Carolina Panthers three weeks ago.
The matchup between the two teams favors Miami in major areas, but there are some key areas where the Saints could upset the balance of the game in their attempt to right the ship and steal an upset on the road.
Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense (Points Per Game)
Saints Offense – T- No. 31 (15) | Dolphins Defense – No. 21 (24.4)
Dolphins Offense – No. 24 (20.6) | Saints Defense – No. 22 (24.9)
The slight edge in scoring goes to the Dolphins because of the team’s defensive advantage. New Orleans and the Las Vegas Raiders are tied for the league’s worst scoring offense and the Saints have one of the worst red zone offenses in the last decade.
The difference in every NFL matchup can be broken down into advanced and nuanced conversations all day long, but the bottom line is that the team that scores the most points wins. The Saints don’t instill much confidence in that area on offense. But if the defense can give them a chance early like it did last week against the Falcons, the difference in the game will be whether or not the offense can take advantage. That will be challenging against defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver.
Point Differential
Saints – minus-109 (No. 29) | Dolphins – minus-42 (No. 23)
The Saints sit at the bottom of an abysmal NFC South in this metric. The division is the NFL’s only without a single team holding a positive scoring differential. New Orleans is accounting for more than half of the total deficit.
Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense (Yards Per Game)
Saints Offense – No. 20 | Dolphins Defense – No. 12
This game will present a real chace for the Saints to get some things figured out with their passing game. Quarterback Tyler Shough impressed last week with his efficiency, but the playmaking and explosive potential demonstrated against the Carolina Panthers in Week 10 was absent.
In Miami, the Dolphins’ passing defense should provide a strong test. New Orleans may have to find a way to produce with a depleted roster around wide receiver Chris Olave. Miami has allowed the fewest receiving yards to wide receivers of any defense in the NFL. However, they’ve surrendered the sixth-most to tight ends. So it might be a good idea to start Juwan Johnson in fantasy lineups this week, as Shough and Johnson have a good chemistry and connection.
Dolphins Offense – No. 26 | Saints Defense – No. 9
Defensive coordinator Brandon Staley’s passing defense isn’t giving up much in the yardage category. Were it not for a late explosion against them last week, the Falcons would have been very limited in their production through the air. New Orleans’ defense has a positive matchup here against Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami offense. However, not giving up the big explosive play in key situations to wideout Jaylen Waddle will be necessary.
Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense (Yards Per Game)
Saints Offense – No. 29 | Dolphins Defense – No. 29
New Orleans’ disappointing rushing attack may be shorthanded on Sunday. Running back Alvin Kamara is believed to have suffered an MCL sprain last week against the Falcons. While rookie back Devin Neal and young, big-bodied rusher Audric Estime each have promise, the blocking and scheme have not yet produced under head coach Kellen Moore as initially expected. Until those two elements begin to fall into place, the potential of the running backs may not be enough.
Dolphins Offense – No. 18 | Saints Defense – No. 21
The Saints’ defense has been alternating week-to-week in stellar to struggling rushing defense numbers. But overall, the unit did a good job limiting the Falcons’ rushing attack in Week 12.
Against Devon Achane and the Dolphins, the risk of surrendering explosive plays on the ground will be present. The back has rushed for 900 yards on the season including 194 in just the last two weeks. A 100-yard rushing game against the Saints would put him over 1,000 for the first time in his career.
Turnover Differential
Saints – minus-4 (T-No. 22) | Dolphins – minus-5 (No. 25)
Neither team has overcome their own giveaways with a strong takeaway defense. Only one turnover separates the two teams. Either this weekend’s game will be one not distanced by their own mistakes or the two teams may go turnover-for-turnover throughout the four quarters. One element that could work in Shough’s favor specifically will be that the Dolphins only have three interceptions on the season.
Third Down Conversion Rate
Saints Offense – 37.8% (No. 20) | Dolphins Defense – 41.9% (No. 26)
Dolphins Offense – 37.9% (No. 21) | Saints Defense – 36.9% (No. 13)
Both teams are middling offensive clubs when it comes to staying on the field. But on defense, they’re on opposite sides of the spectrum. That could play into the advantage of New Orleans, whose defense should be able to match up well against an underperforming Dolphins offense. But if Tagovailoa and his offense begin to break through, things will get challenging quickly.
Pressure Rate Allowed vs. Generated
Saints Offense – 37.1% (No. 18) | Dolphins Defense – 35.7% (No. 17)
Dolphins Offense – 29.4% (No. 2) | Saints Defense – 31.4% (No. 26)
The Saints’ defense has come a long way from its 22.2% start on the season, but still ranks among the bottom-10 in generating pressure. However, the Dolphins do a fantastic job keeping their passers clean. New Orleans has regressed in that area throughout the season, forcing Shough into some negative situations that he has to either move or throw his way out of. New Orleans has not been a reliable or consistent team on either side of the pressure conversation and that could be of detriment on Sunday in Miami.
