Statistically speaking: Saints at Buccaneers

By Ross Jackson

The New Orleans Saints (2-10) will be headed back to Florida in Week 14, this time to take on the NFC South division opponent Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5).

The last time the two teams met, the Buccaneers ran away with a 23-3 victory that led to a Saints’ quarterback change. Since then, injuries and a rough patch in the year appeared ready to derail Tampa’s momentum as they fought to hold off the surging 7-6 Carolina Panthers. As of now, the Buccaneers are still in control of the division, but a Saints team looking to prove itself may be ready to play spoiler with some intriguing edges in this matchup.

Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense (Points Per Game)

Saints Offense – T- No. 30 (15.2) | Buccaneers Defense – No. 23 (25.1)

Buccaneers Offense – No. 17 (23.3) | Saints Defense – No. 22 (24.6)

The Saints offense has been its biggest letdown of the year thus far. Despite the fact that Tampa’s defense will leave a door open for scoring, it’s hard to believe that head coach Kellen Moore’s offensive personnel is ready to take advantage. With some bright spots in the second half of last week’s loss to the Miami Dolphins, and the clear potential that rookie quarterback Tyler Shough brings to the field, maybe things can shape up a bit better in Tampa than they did in Miami. 

A fast start would be all the difference. Through Week 13, the Saints have scored the fewest first quarter points (19) in the NFL.

Tampa’s offense slowed toward the middle of the year while wide receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans along with quarterback Baker Mayfield managed injuries. But with some of that talent beginning to heal up and get back to the field, the Bucs’ scoring potential should rebound in the coming weeks. The Saints’ best hope is to catch the Buccaneers as they are still recalibrating and be opportunistic when possible. 

Point Differential

Saints – minus-113 (No. 30) | Buccaneers – minus-22 (No. 19)

The NFC South is the only division in the NFL in which all four of its teams are in the negative in point margin. The Bucs are the best of the division with the Saints at the bottom. Neither team has been particularly impressive on a consistent basis when it comes to putting points on the board, and each leaves at least a little to be desired in limiting scoring.

Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense (Yards Per Game)

Saints Offense – No. 20 | Buccaneers Defense – No. 29

The Saints should have opportunities to move the ball through the air against the Buccaneers’ defense. Shough had a little less than a half of a game of exposure against Tampa in the teams’ first meeting of the season, taking over at quarterback in place of Spencer Rattler. After Devaughn Vele’s arrival at wide receiver last week, the combination of him and wideout Chris Olave should be able to find some weak spots in the Buccaneers’ zone-heavy (73.6%) approach.

Since transitioning to tight end in 2022, Juwan Johnson has appeared in five games against the Buccaneers. In those matchups, he’s reeled in 26 receptions for 311 yards and a touchdown catch on 37 targets. He too can be a primary contributor through the air against Tampa, where he’s performed particularly well.

Buccaneers Offense – No. 19 | Saints Defense – No. 7

Defensive coordinator Brandon Staley’s passing defense keeps getting better. Facing a faulty passer in Tua Tagovailoa certainly helped, but the confidence being built among the secondary and pass rushers specifically has been palpable. With Godwin back in the lineup, the matchups in the slot with cornerback Alontae Taylor will be keenly in focus throughout the game.

Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense (Yards Per Game)

Saints Offense – No. 29 | Buccaneers Defense – No. 6

The Saints have not been able to get a rushing offense going all season long, and it doesn’t look likely that they will do so this upcoming weekend against Tampa. The Bucs have surrendered more than 100 team rushing yards just three times this year and held the Saints to just 48 in Week 8, New Orleans’ second-lowest total of the year. 

Meanwhile, the Saints have reached 100 team rushing yards just four times all season including only once since Week 4.

Buccaneers Offense – No. 21 | Saints Defense – No. 21

Tampa’s rushing offense has been a disappointment after a strong start from running back Bucky Irving on the year. However, his return in Week 13 is likely to be the beginning of rebuilding that momentum the team saw slump in the middle of the year. The Saints just gave up 134 rushing yards to Dolphins running back De’Von Achane and have allowed more than 120 team rushing yards in the last two weeks since the bye. 

What Saints rushing defense shows up this week will be a key factor..

Turnover Differential

Saints – minus-5 (T-No. 27) | Buccaneers – plus-9 (No. 4)

This is a major disparity between the two teams. The Saints have turned the ball over at least once in every game since their Week 6 loss to the New England Patriots with multiple turnovers in five of those seven games. On the other side, the Buccaneers have turned the ball over just nine times all season while forcing 10 takeaways in their last five games alone. With a rookie quarterback, the Saints are at risk of continuing their trend against a veteran defense. 

Third Down Conversion Rate

Saints Offense – 37.6% (No. 21) | Buccaneers Defense – 39.7% (No. 20)

Buccaneers Offense – 39.6% (No. 15) | Saints Defense – 36.6% (No. 9)

The Saints’ offense appears evenly matched here, but the defense has been surprisingly strong. Getting Mayfield and his offense off of the field will be a big part of this game, especially early. Both teams rank in the lower 20s in three-and-out percentage with the Bucs slightly better (20.6%) than the Saints (21.8%). 

The first quarter will be the most important to watch. Three-and-outs have been the plague of the Saints’ offense in the opening quarter all year. New Orleans currently holds the second-highest three-and-out percentage in the first quarter so far this season at 37.5%.

Pressure Rate Allowed vs. Generated

Saints Offense – 35.9% (No. 16) | Buccaneers Defense – 39.2% (No. 6)

Buccaneers Offense – 36.9% (No. 19) | Saints Defense – 36.9% (No. 19)

The Saints have been vulnerable up front, particularly on the inside of the formation. That’s bad news with defensive tackle Vita Vea on the way, who had a sack in last week’s win over the Arizona Cardinals. In Week 8, the last time the Saints and Buccaneers met, Tampa generated pressure on 36.1% of the Saints’ dropbacks, finishing with three sacks in the process. New Orleans responded with a 37% pressure generation by its defense, and came up with three sacks, including a fumble forced.