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Texas A&M vs. Miami: CFP opening round preview

Dec 19, 2025 | 10:56 AM
Marcel Reed

Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

By Chris Marler

The top matchup of the College Football Playoff’s opening round kicks off in College Station on Saturday at 11 a.m. Here’s our full preview of Texas A&M vs. Miami.

Texas A&M Wins IF…

They can force Carson Beck into bad decisions. 

Beck is a very good veteran quarterback, and Miami wouldn’t be in the College Football Playoff without him. But, dating back to last season his turnovers have been at the core of every loss that Miami and Georgia has had. 

Over the past two seasons, Beck has scored 55 touchdowns. He’s also led his past three teams to 33 wins over the last three seasons. But, in the five combined losses during those three years he threw just five touchdowns and had ten interceptions. In Miami’s two losses this year he’s thrown two touchdowns to six interceptions. 

Luckily for Beck, he’s not facing a Texas A&M defense that’s only forced three interceptions all season. 

Miami wins IF… 

The road environment isn’t as big of a deal as we all think it will be. 

It sucks that this isn’t the night game for Saturday’s slate of CFP games. A December game at Kyle Field after dark would’ve been electric. The 11 a.m. local kick isn’t ideal, but Kyle Field will not disappoint in terms of the fans showing up, being loud and trying to create the 12th Man homefield advantage they desperately need in this game. 

But, will it matter to Miami is the question. 

This is a team that has left the state of Florida just three times this season. Those games were at Pitt, Virginia Tech and SMU. The largest road crowd they’ve played in front of this season was 65,000 at Virginia Tech, and the Hokies were 3-9. The other two games were in front of crowds that were less than 50,000, including a loss at SMU in front of just 35,000. This environment won’t be a shocking experience for Carson Beck who played for four years in the SEC. But, how will it affect his teammates? 

Texas A&M X-Factor – QB Marcel Reed 

It feels like a bit of a copout to list the quarterback as the X-Factor, but Reed needs to be at his best against what has been a very good Miami Defense. The Hurricanes defense ranks in the top ten nationally in scoring defense, rushing defense and yards per play. Their lowest ranking defensively in any major category is their pass defense, and that still ranks top 30 in FBS. 

Reed will see elite athletes from Miami’s defense especially in pass rusher Rueben Bain Jr. He needs to play mistake free football, but he needs to be effective with his legs when under pressure more than anything. 

The Aggies have a great offense and elite wide receivers, but Reed being able to create more time when getting chased out of the pocket or long runs on third downs with his legs will be a huge part of Texas A&M’s story if they win the game. 

Miami X-Factor – WR Malachi Toney

If you haven’t watched Malachi Toney yet, you are in for a treat. The freshman wide receiver has been everything for the Hurricanes’ offense this year. He finished the regular season with 971 yards receiving and seven touchdown receptions. But, he’s also dangerous as a runner, averaged over 14 yards per punt return, and even threw two touchdowns this season. It will be very interesting to see how Miami uses him in the offense and special teams to create one on one opportunities with him in space. 

Prediction 

Racking up wins and getting to the playoff are the goals for every team in college football, so it’s a no-brainer that being 11-1 is a tremendous year for Texas A&M. But, being battle tested and knowing who you are as a team in tough situations is way more important at this stage of the season. 

The Aggies had seven wins against SEC opponents this year. None of those teams had a winning record and all seven were ranked in the bottom eight of the conference standings at the end of the year. They got manhandled by Texas and escaped Notre Dame with a last second 15 yard touchdown on fourth and goal. 

Texas A&M has had an awesome season, and being 11-1 in year two of the Mike Elko is awesome. But, this is a bad matchup for them.

Miami 34, Texas A&M 30

Chris Marler

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