Around the Horn: LSU drops series at Vandy

By Hunt Palmer

What a wild weekend.

Friday looked awful. Then LSU scored eight unanswered. Then got walked off. Saturday was a disaster from jump. Sunday got off to a great start. The middle innings looked bleak. The offense found a groove, and the result was a pretty easy win.

What does it all mean?

In terms of the result and the schedule, the weekend was just fine for LSU. The Tigers lost a series on the road to a solid Vanderbilt team. They were one out from a series win. Five of the last nine series are at home now, and a narrow series loss isn’t the end of the world.

On the field, LSU didn’t play great baseball. That’s putting it kindly.

PITCHING AND DEFENSE

Vanderbilt scored 33 runs on 29 hits. No Tiger starter recorded an out in the fifth. LSU committed an error at first base, second base, third base and catcher, and Steven Milam made a pair of misplays that were not called errors. Pitching walked 10 Vanderbilt hitters on Friday and Saturday and 25 for the weekend.

No statistic is more damning than the 25 walks issued. Consider that LSU walked double digit hitters just three times all of last season. Tiger pitching walked 10 hitters in 45 innings at the College World Series in June. In the Jay Johnson era, LSU had walked double digit hitters nine times in 285 games before the weekend. That happened twice in two days. Twenty-five walks in three days is beyond unacceptable.

Eleven of Vanderbilt’s 24 runs on Friday and Saturday reached base via walk or hit by pitch. In seven of LSU’s 10 SEC series last season, the opponent hadn’t even scored 11 times through two games. Vanderbilt had 11 that scored just by standing still to reach base.

ERRATIC EVANS

It’s completely fair to question LSU’s No.1 starter now.

Casan Evans is a huge talent. LSU doesn’t sniff a national title without his work as a freshman, and the stuff he showed against Sacramento State last week was ace-level.

The facts are that he’s got an ERA of 6.45, he hasn’t finished the sixth inning yet, and he’s walked 12 in 22.1 innings. He did not record a scoreless inning on Friday. The Commodores scored two in the first, one in the second, two in the third and five in the fourth.

If Johnson wants to make a move to William Schimdt on Fridays, that can start to happen in Week 3. The Oklahoma series starts on Thursday, so all three starters move up a day. Schimdt can go from a Saturday start against Oklahoma to a Friday start against Kentucky a week later.

Schmidt is an advantage on Sunday, but Evans might be, too. I have my doubts that Johnson will make a move here, but he does fearlessly tinker with the lineup. Perhaps he’ll take that mentality to the rotation.

OFFENSIVE OUTPUT

If you’d told me on Friday that LSU would score 31 runs in three games, I’d have been ecstatic. And the seventh and eighth on Sunday were really good.

The rest of the weekend was questionable.

LSU was essentially gifted the five-run eighth on Friday. Vanderbilt walked three and hit two. There were two run-scoring wild pitches and a run-scoring passed ball. Jake Brown‘s single was a stellar bunt, and Derek Curiel doubled, but without a ton of charity, the inning doesn’t mushroom.

Sunday’s 6-0 lead was courtesy of a complete meltdown by Vanderbilt’s starter. Saturday’s offensive output was next to nothing. LSU got four hits and failed twice to get a runner home from third with less than two outs.

Cade Arrambide did get five hits including a pair of doubles, and he drove in three runs. Someone outside of Brown and Curiel is going to have to step forward. It was good to see the sophomore catcher sting a few balls.

Overall, I’d give the offense a B grade. The run total was good, and drawing walks is a hallmark of a good offense. LSU did knock Connor Fennell around on Friday. Nine hits in five innings against a proven SEC Friday arm is very good. Thirty-three strikeouts in three games is not at all.

GUIDRY’S GAME

The eighth on Friday was vintage Gavin Guidry. The ninth was not. If you’re going to get beat, I’d much rather it be with two singles and a homer than walks. Over three seasons, Guidry has kind of been a breaking ball specialist with a below average fastball. The gun was reading 95 mph on Friday, which is plenty good enough.

After a dominant first four outings, his last three haven’t been very good.

First Four: 9 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 16 K, 0 BB

Last Three: 6 IP, 7 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 7 K, 4 BB

He’s still the first option for Johnson who has said multiple times, “I’d trust him with my life.” But he’s got to tighten things up a little bit. UL-Lafayette small-balled him. Vanderbilt just hit him hard. I still think his combination of stuff and demeanor are good for late innings, but he’s not June Chase Shores right now.

That’s another perceived strength of the team that has been dented the last two weeks.

OVERALL OPINION

I’ll put a bow on it this way.

We know what championship baseball looks like. This isn’t it. We also know Johnson teams have steadily improved over the course of four seasons. It’s reasonable to suggest he’ll coax that out of this team, too. Until this week, I leaned on LSU’s starting pitching as a strength that would prop this team up. That faltered against a good offense in a tiny ballpark.

Without better pitching, LSU is in trouble. And the defense is a problem. I can wave away some of the pickoff throws and pitcher errors, but LSU has made multiple errors in six of 21 (29%) games. That happened nine times in 68 (13%) games last year.

I’ll continue to beat this drum. The next six SEC games are crucial. Oklahoma took 2-of-3 against Texas A&M, and Kentucky swept Alabama. These are two solid baseball teams. But they’re coming to The Box, and the four weeks that follow are nightmarish (at Tennessee, at Ole Miss, Texas A&M and at Miss St). If the next two weeks don’t go well, it’s trouble. If LSU can get four games, no problem.

The more important issue is that the team needs to play better baseball. Hopefully the offense cultivated some confidence with the run total over the weekend. The starting pitching should be better.

Concerned? Yes. Panicked? Not yet.

They bought a little time on Sunday.