Resume’ Review: How LSU stacks up with the SEC

By Hunt Palmer

LSU’s last five games have been encouraging.

The Tiger bats have come to life, and the pitching has done the job against inferior offenses. That’s reason for guarded optimism over the next two weeks, but it doesn’t change one thing – LSU is not even on the NCAA Tournament bubble currently.

The Tigers have an RPI in the 50s, stand in 14th place in the SEC, have five Quad 4 losses and a Quad 1 record of 4-13. That’s not even close to the bubble.

Opportunity awaits, though. That’s what this piece is about.

If necessary, we’ll look at the entirety of the bubble when that time comes. Right now, it’s far more digestible to look at the Southeastern Conference and a little bit of recent history to set the stage for the last six games plus Hoover.

Last season, the SEC got 13 of 16 teams into the field of 64. Before that, it was 14-team league

2024: 11 of 14 in

2023: 10 of 14 in

2022: 9 of 14 in

2021: 9 of 14 in

The sport has shifted toward the power conferences. Coastal Carolina deserves a mountain of credit for its last couple of seasons, but LSU, Texas, A&M, Tennessee, Florida, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt have all played for the title in the last five years. No other league has shown up except for Coastal out of the Sun Belt. The committee knows in an era of revenue sharing and the transfer portal that the SEC has the best collection of talent.

That will be considered.

So, it stands to reason that LSU needs to find its way into the top 12 of the league to have a fighting chance. Thirteen got in last year, and 11 of 14 made it the year prior. The top 12 feels like a good spot.

What’s the path? Let’s look

14. LSU – SEC 9-15 | RPI 55 | SOS 22 | Q1 4-13 | @ UGA, UF

13. Vanderbilt – SEC 10-14 | RPI 68 | SOS 30 | Q1 5-15 | @ Mizzou, USC

12. Kentucky – SEC 11-13 | RPI 34 | SOS 47 | Q1 6-6| @ UF, Ark

11. Tennessee – SEC 11-13 | RPI 35 | SOS 26 | Q1 10-8 | Texas, @ OU

LSU is going to have to win four of the next six league games to get to 13-17. That’s baked into this whole thing. That will give the Tigers a huge RPI advantage on Vanderbilt which cannot really help itself with games against No. 99 USC and No. 124 Mizzou. If the ‘Dores lose two of the next six games, they’re in trouble with a bad RPI and a losing SEC record. If the Dores win five or six of the games, it will be tough for the Tigers to catch them.

LSU needs to pull against Kentucky. The Cats shave a weak strength of schedule that is going to be bolstered the next two weeks but won’t be as good as LSU’s. If UK loses both series and finishes 13-17, LSU’s 13 and 17 will probably look a bit better especially considering that LSU won the head-to-head series and will have won three league weekends in a row late where UK will have lost its last three. UK has also already dropped series to South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Missouri. Oof.

Then you have Tennessee. LSU got a series win in Knoxville, but Tennessee’s metrics are far better across the board. The RPI is 20 spots better. The Vols have six more Q1 wins and a winning record in Q1 where LSU is 4-13. LSU’s hope here is that Tennessee goes 1-5 over two weekends and finishes 12-18. Despite some strong metrics, that would make life tough on Rocky Top without a big run in Hoover.

The last team to keep an eye on is Oklahoma. If the Sooners are swept at Arkansas this weekend, they’d fall to 12-15. Then they’d be welcoming Tennessee to Norman, and LSU could just pull for the game one winner of that series to sweep. That would open up a spot.

Ultimately, LSU is still a very long shot to make the field. They need a lot of dominos to fall, and two of those involve winning games against the top team in the league on the road and beating a mega-talented Florida staff in Baton Rouge.

The sweep of South Carolina kept things alive. Now, we watch.