Jordan Prather-Imagn Images
By Chris Marler
We’re less than 100 days away from the start of the college football season, and unless you’re Brendan Sorsby, there’s never been a better time to make a few futures bets for the 2026 Heisman race. Here’s a look at our favorite and least favorite bets from the current odds.
Best Bet: Arch Manning +800
All the hype that Manning unreasonably got last year is actually valid this year. In a “down” year at Texas, Manning put up over 3,500 yards of offense and had 36 touchdowns to just seven interceptions. He finished the year with just under 275 offensive yards per game in 13 starts. That included over 330 yards in four of his last six games that resulted in five wins.
Manning ended last year playing his best football. There’s no reason to believe he won’t get off to a much better start this year than he did last year, especially with the wealth of talent he has around him at the skill positions. He’s got a first round pick at left tackle protecting him. He’s got a first round pick at wide receiver to throw to. And he has one of the best offensive minds in the country calling his plays in Steve Sarkisian.
Then there’s the national stage he’ll be on. Manning will have games against Ohio State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, LSU, and Texas A&M. There’s a chance that a win and good performance in week two against the Buckeyes could vault him into the odds leader for the award in mid-September. If that happens, there’s a chance he may never relinquish it.
Arch Manning is ready for a MASSIVE year at Texas 🤠 pic.twitter.com/qJVDnRTsQQ
— Nosebleed Gridiron (@NosebleedGI) May 25, 2026
Worst Bet: Gunner Stockton +1600
This has nothing to do with how good of a quarterback Stockton is. Stockton is a great college quarterback. His numbers support that. Last season he put up over 3,300 yards of offense and 34 touchdowns to just five interceptions. The problem is the wow factor. There isn’t much of one with Stockton who averaged just 206.7 passing yards per game a season ago and gets unfairly boxed in as a “game manager” quarterback that comes with so many lackluster attributes, especially when it comes to Heisman candidates.
Combine all that with the fact that Stockton will be playing on a team with way more talent in the backfield than wide receiver positions and will be playing for a coach that cares way more about national title trophies than individual ones. The good news for Georgia fans is that Stockton feels the same way and is incredibly selfless. That’s bad news for bettors though.
After looking at every one of Gunner Stockton’s 495 drop-backs in 2025, here’s the final breakdown:
– Screen / RPO screen / pop pass = 20.2 %
– QB positive = 35.9 %
– QB issue = 25.7 %
– QB really good to great = 8.5 %
– OL/protection issue = 5.9 %
– Defensive penalty = 3.8 %… pic.twitter.com/Xn3dVevJWe— Brent Rollins (@BrentRollinsPhD) May 21, 2026
Best Value: Sam Leavitt +2000
This is the best bet on the board. There are a lot of unknowns with Leavitt. Is the foot fully healed? Will his game transfer over from the Big 12 to the SEC? And will he live up to the incredible hype that comes along with a No. 1 transfer portal player ranking and a $5 million payday?
Those are really valid questions. The one thing that shouldn’t be questioned is the offense that he will be in and the play caller helping him along the way. Leavitt will be in an offense that is as quarterback friendly as one could imagine and has put up season after season of silly stats under Lane Kiffin. On top of that he will get at least five games on a national stage against Clemson, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Alabama, and Texas. Four of those games are at home and two of them come in the month of November when Heisman voters tend to be the most easily manipulated and opinionated.
Sam Leavitt (6’2 210) LSU
✅ 6.9% big time throw rate was among the highest in this QB class
✅ Off-platform playmaking
✅ Playmaker with his legs
✅ 36 to 11 TD to INT ratio for his career entering 2026 pic.twitter.com/Q9cRkVGfsc— Bengals & Brews (@BengalsBrews) May 26, 2026
Best Longshot: John Mateer +3500
There are several players that fit the bill here, but Mateer gets the nod. The runners up would be Marcel Reed at +2700 and Keelon Russell at +3000, but Mateer has more experience and has a better chance at getting to the CFP again than both those players. Keep in mind Mateer was the frontrunner for the Heisman at the end of September a season ago before a thumb injury and SEC schedule got the best of him. Mateer is going into year three as a starter and while his numbers may never quite be as video game-esque like they were at Washington State, he should have a huge uptick this year versus last year.
John Mateer absurdity🔁 pic.twitter.com/AZS5guDrgo
— Cole Cubelic (@colecubelic) September 7, 2025
Best Non-QB Bet: Kewan Lacy +12500
Lacy has the same odds as Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy. Full disclosure, Hardy is a better back. But, this isn’t about which back is better or will translate more to the next level. It’s which player is the best bet to win money. That is Kewan Lacy.
Lacy will be on the national stage much more than Hardy will be. Granted, Hardy does close with Texas, Georgia, and Oklahoma in three of Missouri’s last four games, but does Missouri have a legitimate chance to win those games? Probably not. Lacy will be at the center of the national stage in games like LSU, Texas, Georgia, and Oklahoma with a chance to win those games. Even games like Mississippi State and Louisville that bookend the season are in time slots that will be unoccupied by any other game. If there’s one thing we’ve learned about the Heisman, it’s that national exposure is just as, if not more, important than the actual season itself. Just ask Troy Smith.
Kewan Lacy (RB) Ole Miss
✅ Knack for the end zone with 24 rushing touchdowns during 2025
✅ Vision to find cutback lanes
✅ 89 missed tackles forced in 2025, and breaks through arm tackles
✅ Quick feet in the hole
✅ 1,567 rushing yards in 2025 pic.twitter.com/V0gYtcICBI— Bengals & Brews (@BengalsBrews) May 9, 2026
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