ESPN FPI updated their analytics and projections to simulate the percentage odds to win for every SEC game in the Week 7 slate. Six of the seven games around the league this week are conference games while only Missouri plays a non-conference opponent in an odd road game at Massachusetts.
Here’s how the computers think this week’s games play out.
South Carolina @ 7 Alabama
FPI Prediction: Alabama 91.1%
21 Missouri @ UMass
FPI Prediction: Missouri 95.2%
1 Texas vs 18 Oklahoma
FPI Prediction: Texas 85.0%
Mississippi State @ 5 Georgia
FPI Prediction: Georgia 95.2%
Florida @ 8 Tennessee
FPI Prediction: Tennessee 86.9%
9 Ole Miss @ 13 LSU
FPI Prediction: Ole Miss 67.8%
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky
FPI Prediction: Kentucky 68.6%
There aren’t any big surprises with the percentages this week. However, there are several games that, historically speaking, would not be a surprise at all to see the listed underdog win outright.
Tennessee-Florida is one of the most heated, not to mention one-sided, rivalries of all-time in the SEC. Florida has less than a 14% chance to win according to FPI, and the Gators are a two touchdown underdog in Vegas. However, Florida is 17-3 against Tennessee in the last 20 years with two of those three losses coming by five points or less.
Then there’s Kentucky-Vanderbilt. Kentucky has won eight of the last ten against Vanderbilt, but to say the Commodores are riding high heading into Lexington may be the understatement of the century. Don’t let the Cats win against Ole Miss distract you from the fact that Kentucky is one of the worst offenses in the conference (and country), and Mark Stoops is just 5-10 overall and 4-10 against the spread in regular season games coming off a bye week.
